tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 18, 2024 4:24 am
A cool morning in the U20s to L30sacross the area. A few snow showers are still possible this afternoon and evening. No issues are expected. A seasonal week temp wise in thew 40s and 50s for highs, with the 20s and 30s for lows. Not much precip until we get towards Friday and even that system is looking week.
The week after next looks busy with rain / t-storms sometime in the 25-26th range then another system around the 28th or so. An early look at Easter and if nothing changes, we look good. Nice and dry with highs 65 to 70 is my current prelim call.
Hopefully, too, a dry Opening Day for the Redlegs on the 28th and if not then hopefully any precip holding off until near sunset / sunset and beyond for their 4:10 vs the Nationals along with the parade beforehand.
Current GFS has a front passing thru very early morning of Opening Day so likely a cool but dry day if that model run ends up being correct.
Only 43 at CVG as of 1pm and we were supposed to get up into the 50s today. Looking doubtful despite a good amount of sunshine. We still have a chilly air mass in place. At 850 MB, it is still only at -3 at CVG as of 1pm.
EDIT: At 925 MB it is -1. At 700 MB it is -7 and way upstairs at 500 MB it is -20!
I don't have a lot of change to report guys. Models are locked in pretty good right now for the next week or so but diverge significantly for the end of next week and beyond as you would expect. Normal to below normal temps thru this weekend. Only chance of rain is on Fri and Fri night. A non-phased system as we've discussed so we won't see a lot of precip.
Expecting additional frosts / freezes if the dew point isn't too low of course, on Wed night and Sat night. Thurs night is borderline. Then we go to above avg for next week but we get wet Monday and Tuesday (we can nail down timing later). Then, when do we get a follow up system if at all? Thurs and Fri? Past Euro and CMC runs had some snow lol and the GFS had nothing due to it being so progressive. 12Z GFS still has nothing and the CMC looks like it could still snow. Euro has some rain with some snow north of us. GFS brings in a front on Sat so we get a dry Easter. Euro does not go out that far yet.
Good Afternoon and the sun is nice but those wind gusts make it quite chilly. Les not much to add to your post and the gfs is very progressive next week where the Euro and Cmc are slower as they show some blocking east of here. Rooting for the later as this would give us a better shot of decent rains plus and nice warm up Sun and Mon. Later next week we just wait and see how things play out and though I love snow not a fan towards the end of March.
Oh and I forgot... should the Euro / CMC combo pan out for early next week, I'd keep one eye open for possible severe wx depending on the timing of the warm / cold fronts. This thing gets wrapped up big time with a low wrapping up across the Plains and we get into the warm sector with a dry line punching in from the West. Could be interesting... GFS is too progressive and not slow enough so I wouldn't expect severe wx with its more progressive solution.
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Mar 19, 2024 4:24 pm
Good Afternoon and the sun is nice but those wind gusts make it quite chilly. Les not much to add to your post and the gfs is very progressive next week where the Euro and Cmc are slower as they show some blocking east of here. Rooting for the later as this would give us a better shot of decent rains plus and nice warm up Sun and Mon. Later next week we just wait and see how things play out and though I love snow not a fan towards the end of March.
I'm not buying the snow chance personally, but I wouldn't complain if it did occur.
Good morning all and it's LOL @ the 0Z GFS. Looks like it is now with a slower solution for next week. We get a dry and mild Monday then get wet on Tues ending early Wed. Nothing yet from the SPC in terms of severe wx but it's way too early to worry about that since we have to get the timing of the cold front down. Then we get another front for Fri with some rain ending as wrap around snow showers on Sat the day before Easter. Sheesh! CMC is in agreement. Euro not so much for the end of the week system.
An SPS has been issued again for today for everyone due to elevated fire danger.
...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...
Gusty northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph can be expected today. The
winds will combine with dry conditions to result in an increased
fire danger this afternoon. Outdoor burning is not recommended as
any fire could grow out of control under these conditions.
I think severe weather takes a break the rest of the month for the OV/Midwest. A few warm days ahead, but the combo of warmth/higher dew points will be at a premium or short-lived with the NWflow dominating the pattern the rest of the month
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2024 6:00 am
I think severe weather takes a break the rest of the month for the OV/Midwest. A few warm days ahead, but the combo of warmth/higher dew points will be at a premium or short-lived with the NWflow dominating the pattern the rest of the month
That could very well be the case. I am keeping my one eye open for Tues of next week, otherwise if the timing of that system isn't good then we're done until April. We need to get more 60s and 70s back into the picture also instead of 40s and 50s.
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2024 4:33 am
Good morning all and it's LOL @ the 0Z GFS. Looks like it is now with a slower solution for next week. We get a dry and mild Monday then get wet on Tues ending early Wed. Nothing yet from the SPC in terms of severe wx but it's way too early to worry about that since we have to get the timing of the cold front down. Then we get another front for Fri with some rain ending as wrap around snow showers on Sat the day before Easter. Sheesh! CMC is in agreement. Euro not so much for the end of the week system.
Good Morning Les and your forecast looks good. Late next the Euro does show a weaker system so all three are showing something nearby. Why this longer stretch of colder weather and yes the PV . Over the past month or so very cold in Alaska especially northern Alaska where temps have been nearly 10 degree below normal at least. This air mass has shifted and we are seeing some of that cold air in the eastern half of the country. This will probably continue through the end of the month and then hopefully spring will finally arrive in full force. We needed this air mass earlier in the season and its sort of like the brief one we saw in January that brought in the cold.
The system on Friday looks to be on the lighter side and hopefully 1/4 inch falls. Next week and the first system if it continues the slower process then we can get a decent rainfall. Then late in the week we see where another system decides to go and how much cold air it will bring to the table. Really is a decent set up for late season snows but again you need the perfect track and enough cold to get something more than snow showers. To me this is a true late winter system that tends to give the app mountains a decent amount of snow. We have plenty of time to watch this system as the one early in the week will most likely have a say of where that system heads.
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2024 4:33 am
Good morning all and it's LOL @ the 0Z GFS. Looks like it is now with a slower solution for next week. We get a dry and mild Monday then get wet on Tues ending early Wed. Nothing yet from the SPC in terms of severe wx but it's way too early to worry about that since we have to get the timing of the cold front down. Then we get another front for Fri with some rain ending as wrap around snow showers on Sat the day before Easter. Sheesh! CMC is in agreement. Euro not so much for the end of the week system.
Good Morning Les and your forecast looks good. Late next the Euro does show a weaker system so all three are showing something nearby. Why this longer stretch of colder weather and yes the PV . Over the past month or so very cold in Alaska especially northern Alaska where temps have been nearly 10 degree below normal at least. This air mass has shifted and we are seeing some of that cold air in the eastern half of the country. This will probably continue through the end of the month and then hopefully spring will finally arrive in full force. We needed this air mass earlier in the season and its sort of like the brief one we saw in January that brought in the cold.
The system on Friday looks to be on the lighter side and hopefully 1/4 inch falls. Next week and the first system if it continues the slower process then we can get a decent rainfall. Then late in the week we see where another system decides to go and how much cold air it will bring to the table. Really is a decent set up for late season snows but again you need the perfect track and enough cold to get something more than snow showers. To me this is a true late winter system that tends to give the app mountains a decent amount of snow. We have plenty of time to watch this system as the one early in the week will most likely have a say of where that system heads.
A weakened PV along with some blocking has helped to keep the NW Flow pattern going for a while longer. Hopefully the timing will work out and we'll get a dry Easter out of the deal. We should know more in about a week from now. Hoping we see the slower solution pan out also for next week as we need assistance in the rainfall dept too.
48 as of 10am. A band of clouds lingers over the region and that is our dry cold front coming in to give us more cold air tonight and Thurs. Lows in the 20s tonight and highs in the 40s tomorrow. Not sure about frost tonight since the dews will be low.
After looking at the NAM and GFS for Friday, I am reducing rainfall amounts even further. I was already forecasting less then 0.25". It is probably going to be a 0.05 to 0.15" range kind of deal instead.
54 now at CVG but the wind is terrible, gusting to 37. The best chance for rain so far looks to be Mon night into Tues. The end of next week system on todays GFS looks weak and unimpressive all of a sudden. Hoping that is not a trend but it wouldn't surprise me if it was since that has been our pattern as of late.
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:06 pm
53 as of 12pm. It would ne a nice day if it weren't for the 30 mph winds! Like last year, the windy days are getting old pretty fast.
Yep, this kind of wind is a pita to get things done . Spraying is out of the question. Clean ups and mulching just seem to take longer
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:06 pm
53 as of 12pm. It would ne a nice day if it weren't for the 30 mph winds! Like last year, the windy days are getting old pretty fast.
Yep, this kind of wind is a pita to get things done . Spraying is out of the question. Clean ups and mulching just seem to take longer
The clean up never ends. I am constantly picking up limbs, branches, and pine cones.
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:06 pm
53 as of 12pm. It would ne a nice day if it weren't for the 30 mph winds! Like last year, the windy days are getting old pretty fast.
Yes, March living up to its Wright Bros wind tunnels (I've seen some on exhibit at the WPAFB Museum years ago) effect.
