Cool!Closet Meteorologist wrote: ↑Sun Feb 25, 2024 6:42 pmHa! Took two bus loads of jazz band kids to a jazz fest.MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Feb 24, 2024 11:36 pmWere you on a Saturday field trip / impromptu snow chase, bro?Closet Meteorologist wrote: ↑Sat Feb 24, 2024 7:25 pm Route 48 south of Xenia and east of Beavercreek at 7:45am.
February 2024 Weather Discussion
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Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
Eric
Greenville, OH
Greenville, OH
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- tron777
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Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
Here's a quick glance at your forecast for this week. 41 this morning so a much milder start as we talked about yesterday. 70ish for the high today. Then we get wet Tues into Wed with falling temps on Wed. Perhaps a few flakes to end the event. A chilly Thurs, then we rebound again. The upcoming weekend is looking good with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
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Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
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Eric
Greenville, OH
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Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
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Eric
Greenville, OH
Greenville, OH
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Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
The above maps clearly show the better timing of the cold front being off to our West and we will get the incoming weakening leftovers. SOP for us... (SOP = Standard Operating Procedure)
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Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
47 as of 9am at CVG. Visible satellite shows wall to wall clear skies so 100% sunshine is expected today to go along with a nice Southerly flow pumping in that warmer air. Dews are still low in the 30s, so the air mass is dry and thus, it will heat up quickly and as Trev mentioned the other day, temps will overachieve. This is why we are going with 70+ for CVG today. ILN has us at 70 so they are onboard too. I hope everyone can get outside and enjoy a little spring fever.
Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
Good Morning and my computer went down Friday and finally back on this morning. Hopefully no severe weather but getting into that time of year when timing is so important to get some severe weather. Done with winter but around these parts we know that is not going to happen and really this winter I have seen more sunny days then I can ever remember
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Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
64 for here in G'ville and 65 DAY via ILN for today.
Eric
Greenville, OH
Greenville, OH
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Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
One of the drier winters too in recent memory. As I have posted before, I truly hope some good spring rains come or I'm afraid it will be a very hot summer upcoming. I want to be wrong too with this idea but tough not to have this line of thinking since it has been dry for months now (on avg). Plus with a possible La Nina in the works, that is another signal pointing to a hot and dry summer.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 9:29 am Good Morning and my computer went down Friday and finally back on this morning. Hopefully no severe weather but getting into that time of year when timing is so important to get some severe weather. Done with winter but around these parts we know that is not going to happen and really this winter I have seen more sunny days then I can ever remember
EDIT: The Oceanic SST's are extremely warm for the time of year so maybe we will get some help from the tropics this year. Last season we got zero help. The Gulf was dead.
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Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
12Z NAM is coming in with around a half inch of rain with our next system.
- tron777
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Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
I saw a Facebook post from Scotty D stating that thru 9am today, February has had 193 hours of clear skies, the most since Feb of 1996 which came in with 203 hours of clear skies. A pretty impressive stat!tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 9:29 am Good Morning and my computer went down Friday and finally back on this morning. Hopefully no severe weather but getting into that time of year when timing is so important to get some severe weather. Done with winter but around these parts we know that is not going to happen and really this winter I have seen more sunny days then I can ever remember
- tron777
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Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
12Z GFS is in agreement.
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Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
About a 25+- degree drop in temps Wednesday morning in a 2 to 3 hour span
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
Can’t wait
- tron777
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Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
You know you love it! You're no longer the heat miser, remember?
Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
Yeah but even I have my limits. This is the time of year I transition to storm mode
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Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
That is true. Since we are not in a cold pattern, I'm pretty much the same this year. I will always accept a fluke snow though with open arms even in April. But anyway... hopefully we will have something to talk about down the road in terms of severe wx. Like winter, severe wx has been lackluster recently too. It seems like heat and drought continue to be our top weather stories, Unfortunately for 2024, heat and drought may make headlines again.
Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
That Death Band a few Aprils ago was something! I remember you and I on the phone geeking out!tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:40 amThat is true. Since we are not in a cold pattern, I'm pretty much the same this year. I will always accept a fluke snow though with open arms even in April. But anyway... hopefully we will have something to talk about down the road in terms of severe wx. Like winter, severe wx has been lackluster recently too. It seems like heat and drought continue to be our top weather stories, Unfortunately for 2024, heat and drought may make headlines again.
- tron777
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Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
Yes Sir! We will geek out again at some point, whether it be snow or severe wx.Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:45 amThat Death Band a few Aprils ago was something! I remember you and I on the phone geeking out!tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:40 amThat is true. Since we are not in a cold pattern, I'm pretty much the same this year. I will always accept a fluke snow though with open arms even in April. But anyway... hopefully we will have something to talk about down the road in terms of severe wx. Like winter, severe wx has been lackluster recently too. It seems like heat and drought continue to be our top weather stories, Unfortunately for 2024, heat and drought may make headlines again.
- tron777
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Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
Speaking of which, the SPC did expand the marginal risk area down to the river for early tomorrow morning. This is in regards to a large hail threat due to low freezing levels and a passing warm front.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated late-night hail is possible across portions of the central
Great Lakes region.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will dig across the Pacific Northwest today with
a mostly zonal mid-level pattern across the eastern CONUS. Within
that zonal flow, a weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley late tonight and could result in some
thunderstorms capable of large hail.
A gradual strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated through
the day today from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes as a
mid-level trough advances eastward. This will lead to poleward
moisture transport centered around 850mb. This moist plume combined
with very steep (8-8.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates will lead to
increasing elevated instability during the overnight period.
Convective initiation remains the primary question during the
overnight period. A trough is present at both 850mb and 500mb in 12Z
guidance, but they are not quite phased. This leads to
weakening/veering 850mb flow during the period when height falls and
500mb dCVA arrives across the region. This is likely an explanatory
factor for the lack of storm coverage by most CAM guidance.
Nonetheless, global guidance continues to show significant
convective precipitation from southern Michigan to northern
Tennessee.
Given 1000 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and effective shear of 45-50 knots
(highest across southern Indiana), a conditional threat for elevated
supercells capable of large hail exists tonight. Have expanded the
marginal risk farther south in Indiana to account for this threat.
It is worth mentioning there is at least some threat farther south
into Kentucky where strong instability and shear are present which
would support supercells also. However, have confined the marginal
risk to areas where better mid-level support is expected early
Tuesday morning.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated late-night hail is possible across portions of the central
Great Lakes region.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will dig across the Pacific Northwest today with
a mostly zonal mid-level pattern across the eastern CONUS. Within
that zonal flow, a weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley late tonight and could result in some
thunderstorms capable of large hail.
A gradual strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated through
the day today from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes as a
mid-level trough advances eastward. This will lead to poleward
moisture transport centered around 850mb. This moist plume combined
with very steep (8-8.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates will lead to
increasing elevated instability during the overnight period.
Convective initiation remains the primary question during the
overnight period. A trough is present at both 850mb and 500mb in 12Z
guidance, but they are not quite phased. This leads to
weakening/veering 850mb flow during the period when height falls and
500mb dCVA arrives across the region. This is likely an explanatory
factor for the lack of storm coverage by most CAM guidance.
Nonetheless, global guidance continues to show significant
convective precipitation from southern Michigan to northern
Tennessee.
Given 1000 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and effective shear of 45-50 knots
(highest across southern Indiana), a conditional threat for elevated
supercells capable of large hail exists tonight. Have expanded the
marginal risk farther south in Indiana to account for this threat.
It is worth mentioning there is at least some threat farther south
into Kentucky where strong instability and shear are present which
would support supercells also. However, have confined the marginal
risk to areas where better mid-level support is expected early
Tuesday morning.
- tron777
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Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
62 at CVG as of 12pm. Wow... Spring Fever is in the air today!
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Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
65 now as of 1pm. 70 looks easy. Can we hit 73 for the record??? For tomorrow, the record is 71 set back in 1996. I think clouds / rain may keep us short of that record but it will be close.
- tron777
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Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
Ditto from the 12Z Euro.
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Re: February 2024 Weather Discussion
68 now at CVG as of 2pm.