Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 12:02 am
Add the Canadian to the GFS’s camp for Friday night/Sat morning. I had 50% snow PoPs in my update yesterday and honestly I do buy wetter solutions. Will probably up to likely PoPs in my new update. I could see up to an inch of slushy accum on grass/car tops/etc wherever the little system tracks. No travel impacts even with it being at night. Pavement temps will be too warm.
It seems like all of the models have jumped on board with snow overnight Friday into Saturday.
I'm camping with the scouts, so this should be fun!
Not much QPF to work with. Most models are under a tenth of an inch.
Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 12:02 am
Add the Canadian to the GFS’s camp for Friday night/Sat morning. I had 50% snow PoPs in my update yesterday and honestly I do buy wetter solutions. Will probably up to likely PoPs in my new update. I could see up to an inch of slushy accum on grass/car tops/etc wherever the little system tracks. No travel impacts even with it being at night. Pavement temps will be too warm.
It seems like all of the models have jumped on board with snow overnight Friday into Saturday.
I'm camping with the scouts, so this should be fun!
Not much QPF to work with. Most models are under a tenth of an inch.
Snow is still snow, when you are camping. Not to mention, the fact that the airmass changeover will be Friday night, when everyone is asleep.
12Z NAM brings in 0.08" of QPF at CVG. Should be all snow with surface temps around 33 degrees. Not expecting any issues with this other then a car or roof topper / mulch grabber, etc.
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:15 am
Been a while since we've seen one of these. 15% severe risk for Day 7 from the SPC.
day7prob.gif
Going to be a dynamic system, polar and STJ phasing in the middle of the country. Warm front will make it well north of the OV. Just the surface winds will be ripping pretty good, and shear looks ominous for many in the mid section of the country
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
Update from the boys with regards to rain chances for today:
The 12z ILN sounding provides some insight on the overall
environment this morning. LLJ isn`t quite as strong as models
had suggested, with the morning sounding only observing 25kt
winds around 850mb. This has decreased the overall moisture
transport, with the PWAT only sitting around 0.7" early this
morning. The overall lack of moisture transport has kept dry air
fairly abundant near the surface, especially south of I-70.
Dewpoints are finally beginning to climb into the lower 40s at
ILN during the mid-morning hours, so the lower atmosphere is
gradually saturating. However, morning convection has been very
limited in our CWA. The primary thought was that convection
should increase as we progress through the morning and afternoon
hours, especially near/south of I-70. CAMs still try and
provide a fair amount of convective rainfall later this
afternoon, mainly with the cold front. There are some
indications that a band of heavier QPF is possible for counties
near the OH River, which would be located on the nose of the LLJ
as the LLJ axis shifts further SE. However, confidence is low
on this being an issue given the weaker LLJ sampling we got from
the morning sounding.
Overall, hydro concerns will be kept to a minimum (if any at
all) with the rainfall today. Even as we get heavier (and more
widespread) rainfall this afternoon, the advancing cold front
from the west should keep the heaviest QPF axis fairly
progressive.
12z Euro looks decent for Sat morning. Can't see the model text data right now but eye balling it on the crappy freebie maps, it looks like we get around 0.15" or so of QPF.
The boys had this to say for the Fri night and Sat system.
Fri night/Sat: The Friday into Saturday period will feature a potent
S/W, which will pivot to the SE from the wrn Great Lakes region into
the OH Vly around/after midnight. Guidance has trended slightly
stronger with this feature, and its corresponding forcing, yielding
slightly more in the way of both PoPs and potential QPF to contend
with locally late Friday night. The narrow ribbon of sufficient
saturation will exist on the leading edge of /much/ colder air,
which will spill S into the ILN FA early Saturday morning. While the
spatial extend of the pcpn shield may be rather small, the forcing
is somewhat robust, suggesting that ascent within the
saturating/cooling profile should be quite decent in the DGZ, at
least for a several hour period after 06z. Current guidance suggests
the most favorable track for a band of light snow to evolve from nrn
IN through EC IN and WC and SW OH and N KY between 06z-15z, with
most of the steadiest light snow evolving from 07z-13z within this
corridor. While antecedent ground temps will be very warm, the
influx of /much/ colder air with the transition from light rain to
light snow will allow for some accumulation in the heaviest bands,
especially on grassy and elevated surfaces. While most spots will
see a dusting to perhaps a few tenths of an inch, there certainly is
the potential for up to an inch in isolated instances, especially
considering the time of day (night). Confidence is high in the
prospect of having some snow move through the local area, but
somewhat lower in exactly where that corridor will evolve. Snow
should taper off from NW to SE in the several hours after daybreak
Saturday. Although antecedent ground temps will be warm, temps
should dip into the mid/upper 20s by Saturday daybreak for most
spots near/N of the OH Rvr. Highs rebound into the mid 30s and lower
40s by Saturday afternoon as skies clear toward the afternoon and
beyond.
