We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

[tron777]

I've updated the logo for you guys:

av-header-small screwed.png

That's awesome!

[tron777]

So as it stands now, the GFS is the southern outlier. Let's see if it adjusts north on 12z.

I'd also like to see a bump up in QPF too into the 0.20s.

[Trevor]

My latest update...

EDIT: Blend of the Euro, RGEM, HRRR, and NAM.

[tron777]

12Z RGEM:

snku_acc-imp.us_ov.png

[tron777]

12Z ICON:

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[tron777]

BG's take on it:

[tron777]

12Z GFS still shows the heaviest snowfall south of us. This run is a hair quicker / hair SE of the 6Z run. The "screw zone" is CVG since we are in between two bands of better snowfall. That will be a risk for someone in our CWA.

[fyrfyter]

GFS gives us 1". Still tries to put heaviest snow across NKY/Central & East KY.

Screenshot 2024-02-15 at 10.41.44.png

[Trevor]

12z high-res RGDPS is a spread the wealth outcome. Note the banding showing up and areas that don’t see as much in between. Like others have said there will be some communities that stay on the low side.

I’m skeptical of the southern snows which is why I kept areas south in 1-2”. I think there will be rain and sleet mucking totals up down there. But I’ll keep watching and will adjust as needed.

[Trevor]

GFS gives us 1". Still tries to put heaviest snow across NKY/Central & East KY.

Screenshot 2024-02-15 at 10.41.44.png

This was an improvement for the tri-state as the GFS was holding 2”+ south of the river previously.

[tron777]

12Z CMC looks pretty close to the 0Z run. The 3-4"+ weenie band of snow is forecast to fall just south of the Cincy Metro.

[tpweather]

12Z GFS still shows the heaviest snowfall south of us. This run is a hair quicker / hair SE of the 6Z run. The "screw zone" is CVG since we are in between two bands of better snowfall. That will be a risk for someone in our CWA.

Hey Les and that is what I mentioned before and really we need the timing correct to get these pieces of energy to phase earlier. Sometimes when the process is starting and in this case the southern energy is stronger it will draw in the energy to the north and during that period somebody gets the old shaft. Hopefully by Friday morning the models will sort of figured out that part of the system. I will be traveling on Friday and leaving around 5am but could see some of the snow in north central Illinois while traveling but it would be just a short period as traveling north I will run out of the snow rather quickly.

[tron777]

12Z GFS still shows the heaviest snowfall south of us. This run is a hair quicker / hair SE of the 6Z run. The "screw zone" is CVG since we are in between two bands of better snowfall. That will be a risk for someone in our CWA.

Hey Les and that is what I mentioned before and really we need the timing correct to get these pieces of energy to phase earlier. Sometimes when the process is starting and in this case the southern energy is stronger it will draw in the energy to the north and during that period somebody gets the old shaft. Hopefully by Friday morning the models will sort of figured out that part of the system. I will be traveling on Friday and leaving around 5am but could see some of the snow in north central Illinois while traveling but it would be just a short period as traveling north I will run out of the snow rather quickly.

Agreed Tim.... Hope you have a safe trip my friend. Like we talked about yesterday, take a pic of some snow while you're up there too please lol

[tron777]

12Z HRDPS also has the weenie band of snow just to our south. Models basically with each cycle are painting the same picture. 1 to locally 2" is a good bet and if you can get in on a weenie band of snow, 3-4" certainly is achievable. IMO and like usual, we will probably have to nowcast it tomorrow.

[tron777]

0Z Hi Res FV3 had the weenie snow band just north of the Cincy Metro. Now, it is pretty much over us on the 12Z run. Hopefully, the UKIE and Euro will continue showing us some love here soon.

[tpweather]

0Z Hi Res FV3 had the weenie snow band just north of the Cincy Metro. Now, it is pretty much over us on the 12Z run. Hopefully, the UKIE and Euro will continue showing us some love here soon.

What is interesting and why we are seeing those banding areas is to the south over Tn is some thundershowers and my guess models are trying to catch onto where this may happen and when which would be late afternoon. This system was so close to being a bigger deal as gulf of Mexico moisture is trying really hard to enter the system and yes there is a small amount that is working into the system but not enough to make it a much bigger deal.

[tron777]

12Z UKIE still looks good QPF wise. Eye balling around 0.30" of QPF. It has a 1009 Mb low along the TN / KY border which continues to deepen as it moves thru. If someone could post a snow map please, that would be great.

[Bgoney]

IMG_1450.jpeg

[tron777]

0Z Hi Res FV3 had the weenie snow band just north of the Cincy Metro. Now, it is pretty much over us on the 12Z run. Hopefully, the UKIE and Euro will continue showing us some love here soon.

What is interesting and why we are seeing those banding areas is to the south over Tn is some thundershowers and my guess models are trying to catch onto where this may happen and when which would be late afternoon. This system was so close to being a bigger deal as gulf of Mexico moisture is trying really hard to enter the system and yes there is a small amount that is working into the system but not enough to make it a much bigger deal.

Yep. I was hoping we'd get a little more gulf moisture involved. That is one way to overachieve. We don't get a big influx as you mentioned, so we will have to rely on where the meso scale bands set up.

[Trentonwx06]

12Z UK

[tron777]

Thanks Jamie! I don't like seeing that CVG screw zone showing up again but what can you do?

[Trentonwx06]

Hopefully RFFS can score but it is new.

[tron777]

Hmmm.... I've never heard of that one. If it does score... we may need to remember it lol

[tpweather]

It seems like most storms we start deducting snowfall totals 24 hours in advance. When you look at this more closely I believe we will be increasing the totals. Why you ask and first a rather sharp temperature north to south on Friday along with not 1 but 2 pieces of energy along with cold air to start with locally and the yes some thunderstorms likely in the Tn valley.

I had went with Bgoney this morning and had 1/2-2 inches and locally a few places could get more. I have raised the total locally 1-3 inches widespread but I believe somewhere in the southern 2/3rds of the Ohio Valley somebody will get over 4 inches and maybe 5. When I start to look at the current conditions and how the cold front will stall south of here later today which will allow cold air to filter in but the cold front close enough that we still can get some heavier precip totals. When I start seeing short term models throwing out thunderstorms to the south and even sleet in parts of Kentucky this tells me the storm system will strengthen nearby.

I just need to leave the area to get a decent snow lol. The one drawback and nothing is ever perfect is the amount of time its snowing and the time of day its snowing. I believe it starts after 2pm and probably ends around 9pm or so. So probably 2 hours of that very little in terms of accumulation but another 5 hours where we can get some. During that 4-7pm where will the heaviest band be located and that is where somebody can get the higher totals.

Yes this is my final answer and wish the best for everyone and hopefully I can send pics back of snow on the ground in Wisconsin and you can send me pics of snow on the ground locally

[tron777]

Great post Tim! This link is time sensitive, but it'll give you a good idea as to what's going on right now. This is a water vapor loop. You can see today's system passing thru which will eventually deliver the colder air. What sticks out to me like a sore thumb is the STJ. There is a lot of moisture coming in across Mexico and TX. I don't know how much of it we will tap into, since this storm is not a very strong one, but you would have to think that it should play some kind of a role with this storm. Finally... the last thing to point out on the W/V loop, is the energy over the Rockies. That is our system for tomorrow.


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_US/animwv.html