We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

[tron777]

I don't recall ever having a winter where 90% of our storm threads turn into utter failure. For the 2023-2024 season, we've had 1 or 2 successful threads and that's been it. What have we done to piss off the snow gods?

Anybody have an extra goat they don’t want , to sacrifice for the good of snow lovers

Seriously! This is really getting bad.

[tpweather]

I don't recall ever having a winter where 90% of our storm threads turn into utter failure. For the 2023-2024 season, we've had 1 or 2 successful threads and that's been it. What have we done to piss off the snow gods?

Anybody have an extra goat they don’t want , to sacrifice for the good of snow lovers

I suggest instead of the goat how about Taylor Swift

[Trevor]

I don't recall ever having a winter where 90% of our storm threads turn into utter failure. For the 2023-2024 season, we've had 1 or 2 successful threads and that's been it. What have we done to piss off the snow gods?

Anybody have an extra goat they don’t want , to sacrifice for the good of snow lovers

I suggest instead of the goat how about Taylor Swift

As a Swiftie I would appreciate it if we could please spare her

[tron777]

I'm with Tim with regards to Taylor.

Anyway... the 12Z RGEM backed back north a tad. First time I have seen a model do this in a while. A solid 2-4" for most of the area is being shown.

[tron777]

12Z ICON is about 3 MB weaker with the surface low versus 6Z run and thus, it has bumped back south., Best snows are now along and S of the river. A solid 2-3" being shown for the region.

[tron777]

12Z GFS is holding too much energy back over the Rockies and this run will continue to bump south / weaker / less QPF overall. Sigh... we just can't win this year folks.

[tron777]

GFS shows around a 1/2" for the Metro and points north. An inch to isolated 2" amounts in our southern counties.

[Bgoney]

GFS getting closer to the NAM with the dreaded shrinkage of qpf

[Trevor]

GFS getting closer to the NAM with the dreaded shrinkage of qpf

Huge decrease in QPF on this run for sure!

[tpweather]

I expect the cmc to be a nice hit since the rgem was nice. Again I always worry about the Canadian models with systems coming from the northwest but again the cmc was the best with the last system and can it get two in a row. Good thing is we are getting colder air pushed into the system before it arrives so not worried about the changeover though it could start out with rain but should switch quickly. Still 48 hours away but this time not worried about the cold air but how much moisture can be produced

[tron777]

12Z CMC bumped back to the north. RGEM did too. All other models so far are trending weaker / south. Current CMC run shows a solid 2-3" for the region iso. 4" possible.

[Trevor]

Quite the boundary to work with here. With the cold high sitting further west, we need to watch and consider northward bumps in future runs. If the high were closer to us/to our north I would be more concerned about suppression. With such a stark contrast across the boundary, it would not surprise me if future runs came in stronger and further north with the track. The Gulf is open, and there is a connection. Not saying this is going to blow up into something crazy, but a stronger system/further north is a possibility. I have a south bias of course on my public forecast due to model trends, but we need to keep a close eye on this. I don't think we are done with the shifting. I could be very wrong here but just brainstorming all options.

[Trevor]

RGEM is further north. It has the boundary further north and a stronger system.

[MVWxObserver]

Currently from ILN for Greenville e.g. Matches up with Trev on his first call map.

Friday
A chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. North wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Friday Night
A chance of snow before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

[Bgoney]

GEFs held in the .10-.20” qpf range for AVland

[MVWxObserver]

Heading to Wausau Friday morning and at least I will see snow on the ground. Expecting at least 2-4 inches up that way. My son has mentioned that most years they are in a little snow belt area as storm systems tend to bring more snow than forecast and part being the hilly area and partly storms tend to find a pathway in that area. Nice to hear what the locals have told him and my guess they blame him for bringing the warm weather from SC.I will take pics up there and hopefully by then we are seeing snow flying locally. Just a short trip and will be home late Tuesday.

[tpweather]

Will wait for the Euro but looks like the gfs and cmc are tracking the storm several miles apart. I do like we are getting colder air before the storm but as we know to much of a cold and dry air mass can sometimes really keep totals down. Yes a system will come through here later Friday I would like to see the system arrive around 6pm with little daylight left. Still believe the first hour may be rain but changes to snow quickly imo.Not sure how warm we get Friday but at the moment I believe upper 30's looks good

[MVWxObserver]

The boys had this to say overnight:

For the period Friday into Friday night, lead mid level s/wv
ejecting quickly east from the West Coast will join a digging mid
level trough into the Great Lakes. This will perturb a low pressure
system which is forecast to traverse east across the Tennessee
Valley then off the North Carolina coast. Increasing isentropic lift
will spread pcpn from west to east on Friday with the highest PoPs
slated for roughly the southern half of the CWFA. As for p-type, it
will be cold enough for snow north, gradually mixing in with rain as
one heads toward and south of the Ohio River. All locations should
change over to snow before pcpn departs Friday night. Current
forecast calls for 1 to perhaps 2 inches for the northern two thirds
of the CWFA with a half inch or less for the remainder of our
southern CWFA. Will make a mention of this in the HWO. Highs on
Friday will range from the lower 30s north to the lower 40s south.
Under CAA, temperatures will fall into the 20s Friday night.

So going to perturb and fluster a low pressure, how many of us have felt over this winter.

Prayerfully we'll all get at least something from this particular system. Some post valentine Ma Nature love.

[Bgoney]

Tim , take a cooler with you and bring back a sampling of snow in case we get the shaft down here

[tpweather]

Tim , take a cooler with you and bring back a sampling of snow in case we get the shaft down here

Only if it does not take up room for my beer lol. I will do that if we stay under 1 inch locally and take a picture of it.

[tron777]

Quite the boundary to work with here. With the cold high sitting further west, we need to watch and consider northward bumps in future runs. If the high were closer to us/to our north I would be more concerned about suppression. With such a stark contrast across the boundary, it would not surprise me if future runs came in stronger and further north with the track. The Gulf is open, and there is a connection. Not saying this is going to blow up into something crazy, but a stronger system/further north is a possibility. I have a south bias of course on my public forecast due to model trends, but we need to keep a close eye on this. I don't think we are done with the shifting. I could be very wrong here but just brainstorming all options.

What you said makes perfect sense and hopefully we see the ticks north tonight and tomorrow. On the other hand, the more energy that gets left behind, the weaker system we get and thus, a more SE track. So both scenarios make sense and are possible at this time. I also don't think the final track / strength is set in stone either. More changes are sure to come over the next 24 to 36 hours. You would think that the QPF would be better too thanks to the baroclinic boundary and if we can get any help from the Gulf too. But, as you said, we could be totally wrong here lol

[tron777]

Tim , take a cooler with you and bring back a sampling of snow in case we get the shaft down here

Only if it does not take up room for my beer lol. I will do that if we stay under 1 inch locally and take a picture of it.

Snow will help your beer to stay cold.

[House of Cards]

I don't recall ever having a winter where 90% of our storm threads turn into utter failure. For the 2023-2024 season, we've had 1 or 2 successful threads and that's been it. What have we done to piss off the snow gods?

Anybody have an extra goat they don’t want , to sacrifice for the good of snow lovers

No, but I'll happily drink some Bock Beer as an offering to the snow gods if that'll help!

[tron777]

I don't recall ever having a winter where 90% of our storm threads turn into utter failure. For the 2023-2024 season, we've had 1 or 2 successful threads and that's been it. What have we done to piss off the snow gods?

Anybody have an extra goat they don’t want , to sacrifice for the good of snow lovers

No, but I'll happily drink some Bock Beer as an offering to the snow gods if that'll help!

A man's gotta do what a man's gotta do.

[tron777]

I have no clue on the accuracy of the hi Res FV3 as it's an experimental model, but the 12Z run has jumped well north to match the RGEM. A nice 2-4" thumping is being shown for the Tristate area.