We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

[tpweather]

18Z NAM is coming in weak and flat with the system but this is in its fantasy range so not too concerned. 18Z RGEM is coming in with a really nice looking system tracking from SE KY into S WV - Eastern MD. Low starts at 1009 MB and goes to 1006 MB as it's pulling away. 18Z ICON has a similar track but even stronger low. 1005 MB.

I agree Les but the nam does show something so that is a plus

[tron777]

18Z GFS has a nice system with 0.32" QPF for CVG. Pretty uniform QPF for most folks. DAY checks in with 0.26".

[tron777]

18Z GEFS is a touch south of its 12Z run. P-type maps show snow, rain in the more northerly ones, and even a period of frz rain / sleet for Cincinnati Tri-state on a few members. We'll have to watch for that depending on how thick the cold air layer is. Could be a pesky warm layer if we can get some overrunning going, which would mean more moisture from the Gulf. The speed of this system will prohibit it from being a big one. A light event is more like it. I would consider 4" a moderate event and 6"+ heavy for CVG Land with the way winters have gone.

[Bgoney]

Those are pretty large shifts with the south trend the last 3 runs of the GFS . Better put the brakes on

[Bgoney]

IMG_1441.jpeg

[tron777]

12Z UKIE has 1" or less for KY / TN border region and that's it. Very weak looking system.

[Trevor]

From my FB…

Updated Thoughts on Late Friday Snow Threat
[Wed 2/14/24 3:00am]

Most of the overnight models are showing a solid 1-3” snowfall late Friday afternoon through Friday night.

A couple of notes:
-track and strength of the storm are still a bit uncertain.
-I feel much better about our chances for accumulating snowfall with this system versus the system last weekend.
-1-3” seems to be the general idea, but we need to watch for more moisture to get involved; it won’t take much to turn the 1-3” into say a 2-4” or 3-5” event.
-it will be a wet snow for those that see it which is very common this late in the season.
-too early to produce a snowfall forecast map, but I am shooting for one Thu morning.

[tron777]

NAM and UKMET are still not showing much of anything. GFS gives CVG 0.28" and the Euro 0.15" CMC is finally looking more Euro and GFS like now. RGEM has 1-2" for us and the ICON continues to show the highest totals.

[tron777]

The boys had this to say overnight:

For the period Friday into Friday night, lead mid level s/wv
ejecting quickly east from the West Coast will join a digging mid
level trough into the Great Lakes. This will perturb a low pressure
system which is forecast to traverse east across the Tennessee
Valley then off the North Carolina coast. Increasing isentropic lift
will spread pcpn from west to east on Friday with the highest PoPs
slated for roughly the southern half of the CWFA. As for p-type, it
will be cold enough for snow north, gradually mixing in with rain as
one heads toward and south of the Ohio River. All locations should
change over to snow before pcpn departs Friday night. Current
forecast calls for 1 to perhaps 2 inches for the northern two thirds
of the CWFA with a half inch or less for the remainder of our
southern CWFA. Will make a mention of this in the HWO. Highs on
Friday will range from the lower 30s north to the lower 40s south.
Under CAA, temperatures will fall into the 20s Friday night.

[tron777]

6Z GFS continues the ticks south. Only 0.17" now at CVG for QPF. Heaviest snows are now over Central KY.

[Bgoney]

6Z GFS continues the ticks south. Only 0.17" now at CVG for QPF. Heaviest snows are now over Central KY.

Yea , a little concerned for the I70 crew with these south shifts. A blend of models for now looks more like a 1-2” agreement, with no more shifts

[tron777]

6Z GFS continues the ticks south. Only 0.17" now at CVG for QPF. Heaviest snows are now over Central KY.

Yea , a little concerned for the I70 crew with these south shifts. A blend of models for now looks more like a 1-2” agreement, with no more shifts

I'm concerned for CVG Land also, These southward shifts are like Deja Vu all over again.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and no snow flying this morning but a headache so a small feature in the atmosphere. Again we are 60 hours out and though models are showing energy around later Friday just too early for any predictions on my part. This system is much different than the no show we had Monday. Diving out of the northwest its a rather nice piece of energy but usually these come with limited moisture and fast movers. Timing looks okay with much of the moisture coming after dark on Friday. Usually the highest amounts are northeast of where the systems dives and makes its turn more east/northeast. So more than likely accumulations but how much and where is up in the air.

[Trevor]

I still like a general broad brush band of 1-3” for now to cover it, lesser amounts north toward I-70. That corridor can be adjusted as needed of course.

[Trevor]

Might go a bit more conservative for my public forecast and start 1-2” for now.

[tron777]

I just hope the southward bleeding stops. That is my biggest concern.

[Trevor]

Went ahead with a first call. Went even more conservative given the uncertainties that remain. As Bgoney and I have talked about before, it's better to add more snow than to take it away. People HATE that. I don't always follow my own advice, though

[tpweather]

Heading to Wausau Friday morning and at least I will see snow on the ground. Expecting at least 2-4 inches up that way. My son has mentioned that most years they are in a little snow belt area as storm systems tend to bring more snow than forecast and part being the hilly area and partly storms tend to find a pathway in that area. Nice to hear what the locals have told him and my guess they blame him for bringing the warm weather from SC.I will take pics up there and hopefully by then we are seeing snow flying locally. Just a short trip and will be home late Tuesday.

[tron777]

HWO from the boys as of 6:30 this morning. It matches Trev's map very well.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
633 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ091>093-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-151200-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Delaware-
Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-
Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
633 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, central Ohio, south central
Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The possibility exists for some snow accumulation to occur Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. Snow amounts may range between a half
inch to 2 inches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

[tron777]

Heading to Wausau Friday morning and at least I will see snow on the ground. Expecting at least 2-4 inches up that way. My son has mentioned that most years they are in a little snow belt area as storm systems tend to bring more snow than forecast and part being the hilly area and partly storms tend to find a pathway in that area. Nice to hear what the locals have told him and my guess they blame him for bringing the warm weather from SC.I will take pics up there and hopefully by then we are seeing snow flying locally. Just a short trip and will be home late Tuesday.

Safe travels Tim! I'd love to see a pic of what winter is supposed to look like lol

[tpweather]

No doubt a bad run for snow lovers with the latest nam. The cold in southeast Canada is helping push drier and colder air southwest and this is keeping the formation of the low further south. Still have time and only one run but when we need the cold its not there and when with this systems the cold wants to make bigger impacts. Could be another nice system for the east coast though.

[tron777]

12Z NAM is coming in and too much energy gets left behind over the N Rockies and our system for later Friday is a sheared out non-event. The NAM has been one model that so far, has been showing the weaker solution. It's even worse then the UKIE lol

[Bgoney]

No brakes for the Nam , sticking to its guns of a moisture starved open wave nothing-burger for the tri-cities triangle

[tron777]

I don't recall ever having a winter where 90% of our storm threads turn into utter failure. For the 2023-2024 season, we've had 1 or 2 successful threads and that's been it. What have we done to piss off the snow gods?

[Bgoney]

I don't recall ever having a winter where 90% of our storm threads turn into utter failure. For the 2023-2024 season, we've had 1 or 2 successful threads and that's been it. What have we done to piss off the snow gods?

Anybody have an extra goat they don’t want , to sacrifice for the good of snow lovers