We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

[Trevor]

Continue here.

[tron777]

I hope Mother Nature adds some lube this time!

[Trevor]

I hope Mother Nature adds some lube this time!

lol!!! You know she won’t…

[tron777]

I hope Mother Nature adds some lube this time!

lol!!! You know she won’t…

I remember the days when folks in the N Cincy Burbs and I-70 Crew would snow with Cincy and points south raining. We've had plenty of misses to the south with a sharp NW cut off. Will this one miss north, south, or not even develop at all? Stay tuned for another episode of "AV: Where Snow Storms Come to Die."

[tpweather]

The new thread title I believe is a song from The Who

[BookNerdCarp]

I'm running out of white towels to throw in......

[dce]

My forecast for this storm is that we are going to be in the bullseye at some point over the next couple of days. Within 24 hours this storm will turn into a Kentucky special with 3-5 inches from Louisville to Lexington. Cincinnati gets an inch or less. That's my story and I'm sticking to it!

[tron777]

I'm running out of white towels to throw in......

No doubt Matt!

[tron777]

The new thread title I believe is a song from The Who

I hear that Tim! We'll get fooled again too!

[tron777]

My forecast for this storm is that we are going to be in the bullseye at some point over the next couple of days. Within 24 hours this storm will turn into a Kentucky special with 3-5 inches from Louisville to Lexington. Cincinnati gets an inch or less. That's my story and I'm sticking to it!

The only good thing about the last one is even KY got the shaft. No one did well until the system got into S New England. It was a nice surprise in CT. But outside of that state... not much else.

[tpweather]

My forecast for this storm is that we are going to be in the bullseye at some point over the next couple of days. Within 24 hours this storm will turn into a Kentucky special with 3-5 inches from Louisville to Lexington. Cincinnati gets an inch or less. That's my story and I'm sticking to it!

The only good thing about the last one is even KY got the shaft. No one did well until the system got into S New England. It was a nice surprise in CT. But outside of that state... not much else.

The last storm just felt funny from the get go and models well they were on a scale of 1-10 a -5. I am not sure how everyone felt but never felt good about snow totals. To much work had to be done and especially with such a mild period before the storm. Time to forget about that storm and move on to this one that will have cold air available.

[tron777]

A much improved 12Z Euro run. 0Z run gave CVG 0.01" of QPF. 12Z run has 0.10" so that's a nice improvement. Low is slowly strengthening as it moves across TN too. We saw that earlier with the GFS.

[tpweather]

Another thing to mention is with these systems that are coming from the northwest the CMC will tend to be on the really cold side with most systems. Though the model was not perfect with the last storm it was well ahead of the so called good models aka Euro and GFS.

[House of Cards]

I have a strange little theory though. For how long now were we hearing all the stories about how the lakes in the west have been draining (Lake Mead/Lake Powell) and all the gnashing of teeth. Well, now the last several years that is slowly reversing, right? What if something like that is actually the key to our winter woes? Maybe we need those rains to continue there to refill that area, and at the same time "change" the soild moisture and humidity patterns, and once that returns to maybe what it was more like in the past, then it alters the flow of systems again downstream, and maybe that is where we see a return here to the winters we all love and remember? There just has to be some higher purpose in all these screwings, doesn't there?

[House of Cards]

My forecast for this storm is that we are going to be in the bullseye at some point over the next couple of days. Within 24 hours this storm will turn into a Kentucky special with 3-5 inches from Louisville to Lexington. Cincinnati gets an inch or less. That's my story and I'm sticking to it!

The only good thing about the last one is even KY got the shaft. No one did well until the system got into S New England. It was a nice surprise in CT. But outside of that state... not much else.

The last storm just felt funny from the get go and models well they were on a scale of 1-10 a -5. I am not sure how everyone felt but never felt good about snow totals. To much work had to be done and especially with such a mild period before the storm. Time to forget about that storm and move on to this one that will have cold air available.

I kept telling people the ground temps were way too warm for anything we got to amount to anything. Hard to be disappointed when you never got excited in the first place.

[MVWxObserver]

"Every Which Way Model Been Screwed, every which way model been screwed!"

Give us a RIGHT turn, Clyde!

[tron777]

I have a strange little theory though. For how long now were we hearing all the stories about how the lakes in the west have been draining (Lake Mead/Lake Powell) and all the gnashing of teeth. Well, now the last several years that is slowly reversing, right? What if something like that is actually the key to our winter woes? Maybe we need those rains to continue there to refill that area, and at the same time "change" the soild moisture and humidity patterns, and once that returns to maybe what it was more like in the past, then it alters the flow of systems again downstream, and maybe that is where we see a return here to the winters we all love and remember? There just has to be some higher purpose in all these screwings, doesn't there?

I'll listen to any theory at this point Dave! It's been tough for the DAY to CVG corridor for a while now. Still a few weeks left to get something before we have to say "there's always next year" again.

[winterstormjoe]

Oh my, you're all cracking me up!

[tron777]

Oh my, you're all cracking me up!

We are pulling out all the stops now, Joe!

[tpweather]

My forecast for this storm is that we are going to be in the bullseye at some point over the next couple of days. Within 24 hours this storm will turn into a Kentucky special with 3-5 inches from Louisville to Lexington. Cincinnati gets an inch or less. That's my story and I'm sticking to it!

The only good thing about the last one is even KY got the shaft. No one did well until the system got into S New England. It was a nice surprise in CT. But outside of that state... not much else.

The last storm just felt funny from the get go and models well they were on a scale of 1-10 a -5. I am not sure how everyone felt but never felt good about snow totals. To much work had to be done and especially with such a mild period before the storm. Time to forget about that storm and move on to this one that will have cold air available.

I kept telling people the ground temps were way too warm for anything we got to amount to anything. Hard to be disappointed when you never got excited in the first place.

Hey Dave and you were dead on. Hope everything is going well. I agree I was not disappointed at all and wish I used my head instead of the models which were horrible for a system that close in range. Give it to the CMC and though it moved back somewhat west it was by far the best model. Going forward for the next few weeks I will be careful with the CMC because when we start getting systems out of Canada that model no doubt has a colder bias and not saying its wrong all the time but something we look at when forecasting.

[tron777]

A lot of the model chaos right now for this system and a lot of that has to do with how much energy gets left behind over the Rockies? CMC leaves a lot of it behind so it's very weak with this particular system. ICON and GFS are bringing most of the energy out so thus, a stronger solution. That is something that I have noticed on the overnight and 12Z guidance from today. Even the Euro took a nice step towards the stronger solutions today.

[winterstormjoe]

Oh my, you're all cracking me up!

We are pulling out all the stops now, Joe!

Les, I was wondering about this cold surge along with a wave a week ago when it showed the cold going all the way to Mexico? It's flattened out some since then!

[tron777]

Oh my, you're all cracking me up!

We are pulling out all the stops now, Joe!

Les, I was wondering about this cold surge along with a wave a week ago when it showed the cold going all the way to Mexico? It's flattened out some since then!

Like Trev mentioned... this is actually an interesting set up. The strength of the wave is key to how much QPF we get as well as low track. As Tim mentioned, we'll actually have some cold air to work with this go around. If we see a few inches of snow, I expect us to remain at or below freezing for highs on Sat. Mid 30s if we see no snow.

[tpweather]

Hoping for a double header with 1-3 here locally late Friday and early Saturday and 1-3 in Wausau later Wednesday night into early Thursday. I will be driving up on Friday so I can report on weather conditions if the snow is falling in Illinois that day.

[tron777]

18Z NAM is coming in weak and flat with the system but this is in its fantasy range so not too concerned. 18Z RGEM is coming in with a really nice looking system tracking from SE KY into S WV - Eastern MD. Low starts at 1009 MB and goes to 1006 MB as it's pulling away. 18Z ICON has a similar track but even stronger low. 1005 MB.