February 2024 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

Kid you not , our tax dollars at work, They have pre treated the main roads here in Clermont county. WTH

[tpweather]

Kid you not , our tax dollars at work, They have pre treated the main roads here in Clermont county. WTH

Bgoney that is our lovely government at work. Maybe they are treating the roads for that phantom storm on Feb 30th. I wonder if I should get my shovel out and have it ready.

[Bgoney]

Kid you not , our tax dollars at work, They have pre treated the main roads here in Clermont county. WTH

Bgoney that is our lovely government at work. Maybe they are treating the roads for that phantom storm on Feb 30th. I wonder if I should get my shovel out and have it ready.

I thought maybe we got NAM’d at the last minute, or CB put out another map for our area

[tpweather]

Kid you not , our tax dollars at work, They have pre treated the main roads here in Clermont county. WTH

Bgoney that is our lovely government at work. Maybe they are treating the roads for that phantom storm on Feb 30th. I wonder if I should get my shovel out and have it ready.

I thought maybe we got NAM’d at the last minute, or CB put out another map for our area

If you put out enough maps one will finally hit.

[tron777]

Kid you not , our tax dollars at work, They have pre treated the main roads here in Clermont county. WTH

Bgoney that is our lovely government at work. Maybe they are treating the roads for that phantom storm on Feb 30th. I wonder if I should get my shovel out and have it ready.

I thought maybe we got NAM’d at the last minute, or CB put out another map for our area

If you put out enough maps one will finally hit.

For this forum, if we start enough storm threads, maybe one of them will become a hit.

[tron777]

In all seriousness, the next system will be a front for Thursday but the main surface low will pass thru the Great Lakes. A light rain shower or two but nothing major at all is expected. The next item of interest for snow is Fri night into Sat with another clipper like system diving in. Will this one dig far enough south for something of note? That is what we will need to be on the look out for.

[tpweather]

In all seriousness, the next system will be a front for Thursday but the main surface low will pass thru the Great Lakes. A light rain shower or two but nothing major at all is expected. The next item of interest for snow is Fri night into Sat with another clipper like system diving in. Will this one dig far enough south for something of note? That is what we will need to be on the look out for.

Since I will be out of town chances go up locally for a snowstorm lol

[Bgoney]

Current radar and temps

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[MVWxObserver]

A trio of 49's as CVG, DAY and CMH all reached that today.

[Trevor]

GFS is advertising a COLD day on Saturday. I am actually somewhat interested in our snow prospects for that system. The cold will be there, but will the moisture? We shall see.

But as I have been saying again and again, very brief cold shots behind fronts (typical) and nothing more. Cold Saturday before we begin to rebound on Sunday. And now with the MJO acting up (as I expected it would), there is further evidence that we don't have much going for us IRT any sustained cold, wintry pattern. Tim I hope I am wrong man I would love a multi-week period of good winter weather like you've been forecasting. But as I've been saying IMO all we can hope for is moisture and one of the brief, cold shots line up properly for a good snow before we call it a wrap and switch to Spring.

The CPC forecasts for a cold second half are not going to verify, and no surprise here they have changed their tune.

[tron777]

GFS is too far north with the low Fri evening low and the CMC / Euro are too far south. A blend here would be good for us lol We have the weak Thurs system that slips by to the north first, then how much can the Fri evening wave dig? That is what will determine our fate for Fri night. Behind that system a very cold Sat is likely. Might be tough to get above freezing in some areas esp if we do see snow.

[tron777]

6Z GFS has the low for Fri night well north so rain for everyone on the forum.

[Bgoney]

Past 48 hrs precip

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[tron777]

Past 48 hrs precip





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How many times must we continue to see that sharp NW cut off to the precip shield? This seems to be a theme anymore esp. in winter.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and looks like the snow decided to stay away for the most part with the departing system. That system was always tricky and getting snow was not going to be easy with the best track because of the mild air ahead. Not sure but looks like south of here got very little snow as well.

Trev you are correct about this week into early next week as the models are showing quick shots of cold but then warm back to normal. Sticking to my guns but the models themselves are not helping with my forecast. I will need to grab hold of some cold air in Wisconsin this weekend and bring it back home

[Bgoney]

Past 48 hrs precip





IMG_1431.jpeg

How many times must we continue to see that sharp NW cut off to the precip shield? This seems to be a theme anymore esp. in winter.

The STJ just won’t come north and there hasn’t been a polar jet for phasing . And it looks to continue for week 3 . I know we have the chance for precip later this week but overall compared to average it is a dryer than normal period

[tron777]

Good Morning and looks like the snow decided to stay away for the most part with the departing system. That system was always tricky and getting snow was not going to be easy with the best track because of the mild air ahead. Not sure but looks like south of here got very little snow as well.

Trev you are correct about this week into early next week as the models are showing quick shots of cold but then warm back to normal. Sticking to my guns but the models themselves are not helping with my forecast. I will need to grab hold of some cold air in Wisconsin this weekend and bring it back home

Please do so and bring some moisture with you too!

[tpweather]

Good Morning and looks like the snow decided to stay away for the most part with the departing system. That system was always tricky and getting snow was not going to be easy with the best track because of the mild air ahead. Not sure but looks like south of here got very little snow as well.

Trev you are correct about this week into early next week as the models are showing quick shots of cold but then warm back to normal. Sticking to my guns but the models themselves are not helping with my forecast. I will need to grab hold of some cold air in Wisconsin this weekend and bring it back home

Please do so and bring some moisture with you too!

Les I will try and maybe head over to the lakes and bring it back since the lakes are lacking ice. Expecting wind chills below zero Friday and Saturday so at least it may feel like winter though snow on ground will most likely be in the 1-3 inch range.

[Trevor]

Good Morning and looks like the snow decided to stay away for the most part with the departing system. That system was always tricky and getting snow was not going to be easy with the best track because of the mild air ahead. Not sure but looks like south of here got very little snow as well.

Trev you are correct about this week into early next week as the models are showing quick shots of cold but then warm back to normal. Sticking to my guns but the models themselves are not helping with my forecast. I will need to grab hold of some cold air in Wisconsin this weekend and bring it back home

Tim we have to remember that this El Nino has been so pronounced and strong that it can and has overpowered the effects of some of the teleconnections. It'd be different if this was a weak El Nino for sure.

[tron777]

Good Morning and looks like the snow decided to stay away for the most part with the departing system. That system was always tricky and getting snow was not going to be easy with the best track because of the mild air ahead. Not sure but looks like south of here got very little snow as well.

Trev you are correct about this week into early next week as the models are showing quick shots of cold but then warm back to normal. Sticking to my guns but the models themselves are not helping with my forecast. I will need to grab hold of some cold air in Wisconsin this weekend and bring it back home

Please do so and bring some moisture with you too!

Les I will try and maybe head over to the lakes and bring it back since the lakes are lacking ice. Expecting wind chills below zero Friday and Saturday so at least it may feel like winter though snow on ground will most likely be in the 1-3 inch range.

Thanks Tim! The clock is ticking on our winter here in the Tri-state so we need to make hay when we can.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and looks like the snow decided to stay away for the most part with the departing system. That system was always tricky and getting snow was not going to be easy with the best track because of the mild air ahead. Not sure but looks like south of here got very little snow as well.

Trev you are correct about this week into early next week as the models are showing quick shots of cold but then warm back to normal. Sticking to my guns but the models themselves are not helping with my forecast. I will need to grab hold of some cold air in Wisconsin this weekend and bring it back home

Tim we have to remember that this El Nino has been so pronounced and strong that it can and has overpowered the effects of some of the teleconnections. It'd be different if this was a weak El Nino for sure.

Trev you bring up a great point and though much of the winter models kept weakening the El Nino but it has not happened. That was part of my forecast and have it weakening and seems like it just wants to continue. I believe models yes are seeing signs of weakening but until that happens more at the surface we continue to be in the same pattern which also keeps jets apart and also the STJ well south of us as it continues mainly to come into central Mexico and then the gulf states. When it finally decides to erode will probably be in April and then we get the below normal temps which I don't care for in the least. Still going to give it time but I believe you hit the nail on the head and why my forecast could blow up to a certain extent.

[tron777]

I honestly hope the Nino takes its time weakening. If La Nina sets in too fast, we could be baking come summer time.

[Bgoney]

Latest sat/precip in the tropics near equator and dateline with majority still in 6/7

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[tron777]

As of 2/11, per the Aussies, the MJO is still in Phase 7 and shows no signs of leaving Phase 7 as of this post anyway,

[tpweather]

The El Nino has played out like a normal one in many areas but also 180 degrees in other areas like Australia where they normally have a very hot and dry summer during El Nino but this summer they have been very wet. Interesting to sort of revisit different phases of the ENSO and how they have changed in certain areas of weather around the world. We may be able to say yes this happens with each phase but other areas are not what happen say 30 years ago. Again when gathering information and the satellite area just began maybe 50 years ago and before that we relied more on surface reports and those especially outside USA and Europe were probably hard to get.