How Can We Get Screwed Out of a Snow Storm Again? February 12-13, 2024

[Bgoney]

Euro with a pronounced jiggle

No doubt further south.

That’s 3 runs in a row the Eu has nudged south, each time about 20 or thirty miles . With such a small deform band that’s a lot. Maybe it an over correction and iit adjusts accordingly, or maybe not

[DJKuo]

Chance of zero to 12 in of snow for my area? ...

[Trevor]

Here’s the graphic I went with on my page this morning. There is definitely a trend toward southern options. Like Bgoney said there will likely be further adjustments and even corrections so we are still in the too early to call time for now. This is why I haven’t put out numbers on my page yet.

Unless we continue to see further adjustments south, a combo of #2 and #3 is looking pretty likely.

[tpweather]

Trev I agree because the heavy band may only be 2-4 counties wide and that is a small target 30 plus hours away to pin down a total.

[Trevor]

Trev I agree because the heavy band may only be 2-4 counties wide and that is a small target 30 plus hours away to pin down a total.

Yes very tricky. Wouldn’t blame them if ILN holds off on any headlines until tomorrow morning. Kinda good timing as most people are in Super Bowl party mode today anyways and not really paying attention to the weather as much.

[mainevilleweather]

What is the difference between the NAM and the NAM 3km Conus? Regular name shows south track 3km shows north.

[tron777]

Euro is like a non event lol I'm riding the GFS and sticking with my original call. The heck with it.

[tron777]

MD for 1" per hour snow in TX Panhandle:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0127.html

[tron777]

15Z SREF Mean went up a bit at CVG, but down for I-70 Crew.

CVG - 2.4"
HAO - 2.3"
ILN - 2.6"
MGY - 2.2"
DAY - 1.6"
CMH - 2.3"

[tpweather]

Les I believe 1-3 locally is the way to go. I happen to be lower and will watch the snow totals in Missouri and Arkansas overnight though many of the areas getting snow there is in the ozarks. I will stay at 1.5 for CVG and even across the local tri-state area my guess totals could vary quite a bit just because of the narrow band we are dealing with

[DJKuo]

LOL... 18z HRRR... I approve

snow.png

[mainevilleweather]

Think we are leaning getting screwed out of a snowstorm here haha.

[dce]

How can we get screwed out of a snowstorm again? Refer to the above post and also the brand new 18z NAM. These southward trends are getting concerning.

[young pup]

How can we get screwed out of a snow storm again? By believing the models that are run by the government. Yet again we are being lied too.

[Bgoney]

WA for counties along the river

[allowat3]

Okay, let's slow the southward trend because it looks like in my neck of the woods I could cash in. No whammies! No whammies! STOP!

[tron777]

NZ075-080-KYZ089>099-OHZ077>079-120500-
/O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0005.240213T0000Z-240213T1200Z/
Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-
Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Including the cities of Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw,
Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger,
Independence, Newport, Fort Thomas, Highland Heights, Bellevue,
Dayton, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown, Crittenden, Dry Ridge,
Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville, Mount Olivet, Maysville,
Downtown Cincinnati, Milford, Summerside, Mount Carmel,
Mount Repose, Withamsville, Mulberry, Day Heights, Georgetown,
Mount Orab, Ripley, and Aberdeen
340 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
inches.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky and
southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

[tron777]

Latest thinking from the boys:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley early Monday
morning will lift northeast across the Tennessee Valley through the
day on Monday and into the central Appalachians Monday night. The
06Z and 12Z models have overall trended farther south with this,
along with the associated deformation axis that will set up across
our area for Monday night. The NBM seems to be lagging in this
southern shift, so have trended the forecast more toward the newer
model data.

Ahead of the low, rain will spread into the area from the south
through Monday afternoon into Monday evening. With the developing
deformation axis and increasing frontogenetic forcing, dynamic
cooling should allow for a fairly quick change over to snow in the
heavier pcpn Monday night. This will lead to the potential for
a few hour period of some pretty heavy snow rates. That being
said, surface and road temperatures will be warm initially,
further complicating the snow amounts. There will also be the
potential for some banding which could lead to some localized
enhanced amounts. Finally as we go through the night, the
system`s energy will begin to shift to the east coast, which
could lead to slightly lower amounts across our eastern areas.

SLRs will start off on the lower side but should increase somewhat
through the event as we continue to cool. Desi and the
GFS/ECMWF ensembles are indicating about a 50 percent chance
for an axis of greater than 4 inches somewhere across our
southern areas, but this is based on a 10:1 ratio. Given all of
the variables and uncertainty, think the best way to handle this
at this point is to allow for snow amounts in the 1 to 3 inch
range for these areas, with some higher amounts possible in
localized banding. Will go ahead and go with a Winter Weather
Advisory across parts of our southwest where we currently have
the highest snowfall totals, but there remains a significant
degree of uncertainty with this forecast and additional changes
may be needed with later forecasts.

[mainevilleweather]

Any chance at this point the models wiggle back north? Is the GFS on to something or did it miss out on these shifts south?

[BookNerdCarp]

Here’s the graphic I went with on my page this morning. There is definitely a trend toward southern options. Like Bgoney said there will likely be further adjustments and even corrections so we are still in the too early to call time for now. This is why I haven’t put out numbers on my page yet.

Unless we continue to see further adjustments south, a combo of #2 and #3 is looking pretty likely.

Trevor I'll take Door number 3 please

[dce]

I think the I-70 crew will be on the outside looking in on this one. I remember the 80's and 90's when it was rare that Kentucky got hit and Southwest and Central Ohio didn't. The norm was that Ohio always, year in year out, had more snowfall than Kentucky. Man, has that sure changed. Kentucky has been a snow magnet the last 10 years.

[dce]

Any chance at this point the models wiggle back north? Is the GFS on to something or did it miss out on these shifts south?

There's always a chance. The last snowstorm we had kept shifting south the last few model runs, but when the event began snow accumulated even farther south than any model had shown. Louisville and northern Kentucky, according to models, were only supposed to get a dusting at best but wound up with a 2-4 inch snowfall. That's why we nowcast. Overachievers happen because no model was predicting the amount of snow that actually fell in a particular area. That being said, it's not likely we see a shift back north. But not impossible either.

[tron777]

CB has pulled the winter storm trigger:

https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=63874

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and a nice day as the sun took control. Something I mentioned earlier and really the CMC was sort of showing this in the past 12 hours but it seems to throw out a band of sleet in a narrow band as well. Sleet is tricky but usually involves a deepening system like this. No doubt the models drifted south over the past 24 hours and folks towards I -70 especially from Dayton westward may be on the outer edge which could lead to less totals there. We still have about 26 hours before any of this begins so expect some minor changes that could cause major impacts. We are talking about 20-30 miles either way can no doubt change the forecast. Still no reason at this time to change and again still believe a now cast is heading our way as these system that are strengthening can no doubt make the models look silly.

[tron777]

18Z GFS still looking good for 71 counties and SE from there. 994 into SE KY then 992 into E WV.