February 2024 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

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[Bgoney]

EPS still showing a nice PNA around mid month

[Bgoney]

Yea I’d be ok if we don’t see another lengthy arctic air mass . Just got the January electric bill and the highest monthly bill since February 2018

[MVWxObserver]

And the GFS at the end of its run. A snowstorm in Mexico.

Cocaine may not be not be the only thing coming up to the border in that scenario.

Currently 37 here in G'ville and progged for around 33 Thurs morning.

[tron777]

Good morning! We will start the new month on a quiet note with some sunshine and temps near 50.

[Bgoney]

The sun is out , the sky is blue!!!!!

[Bgoney]

Long term near mid month , models still showing a +PNA and a cool down. It’s still an air mass that originates from the Pacific for most of the lower 48 , only modified passing over the northern Rockies. Any cross polar/arctic air mass would remain in the eastern half of Canada. PAC jet splits off the coast with of course a stronger STJ and a very weak northern branch . That’s what it looks like to me for now

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[tron777]

The sun is out , the sky is blue!!!!!

I know! Had to put on my shades for a change this morning when I was out and about.

[MJSun]

The sun is out, the sky is blue!!!!!

Sooo nice to see!

[tron777]

[MVWxObserver]

Both where I reside, Greenville, OH and my birthplace, Anderson, IN are in the eclipse zone.

Currently 46 here in G'ville and progged for around 50 today.

[Closet Meteorologist]

Been seeing online that we might have a clipper come through Monday-Tuesday. Thoughts?

[Bgoney]

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[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and what a nice day. Took a 40 minute walk without a jacket or gloves. Several things to go over as I was busy the past two days. On Tuesday I expected a little more in the way of cold air to hit that system between 4-8pm and stayed in the mid-30's though it was miserable. Second I thought the weekend would be colder than models showed on Tuesday and they have dropped on Friday and Saturday but get milder on Sunday so an even split between the model and myself.

Bgoney mentioned the other day about the warmth in Canada and I was talking about the cold in Alaska. We are talking about 100 degrees difference in the same latitude on the same side of the globe. Well of course with the temperature difference the panhandle of Alaska got hammered with snow and early in the season the southern part of the state was slammed and in recent weeks the panhandle. Yes you see 100 degree difference in the USA many times(not this year) from N.Dakota to Texas and that is when we see a big storm in the central USA.

So this weekend the cold remains in Alaska but the pattern is changing and a big part of that will be with big storms coming into western Alaska. So yes at first heavy snow but this also brings in much warmer weather and one of those times you see a jump of about 50 degrees in a day or two. This should help in getting things moving across the mainland USA as over the next 5-7 days its like a sloth moving through the area.

Do we see the polar vortex move this way and most models are pointing to a stretched out PV so a more narrow area of the coldest air compared to mid-January when the PV came rather far south and intact and a much boarder cold air mass was around.

I still believe the coldest of air is in the eastern 1/3 of the country and that puts us on that boarder of really cold to just plain old cold for mid-February

Storminess will pick up later next week and expect this to continue the remainder of the month. Does that mean snow and only time will tell but we should be able to get cold enough but we still need the timing. The models starting next week will show some wilder outcomes and that happens often with a pattern change. I do believe the systems they are showing at the moment for later next week will start to speed up some and probably 12-24 hours faster by the time we come to Monday of next week.

Going to enjoy the mild air next week and maybe just maybe clean the golf clubs out and at least hit the driving range. I have no problem playing golf in 45-55 degree temp if there is no rain or wind and never easy warming up in Feb or March without wind.

[Bgoney]

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[tpweather]

No doubt the upper plains/midwest and much of southern and even central Canada have been very mild this winter. Of course Mother Nature must even things out and she has with very cold temps in the Norway/Sweden/Finland area, eastern Asia and recently much of Alaska. I know the media will try and not mention those areas but that is why we have forums that will.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 54 and both DAY / CMH 52 today.

[MVWxObserver]

HAPPY GROUNDHOG DAY!!

[tron777]

Good morning! Our weather over the next 7-10 days is zzzzzzz. But this will give everything a good chance to dry out. Still waiting to see how the second half will go for snow lovers.

[Bgoney]

Going to be one of those weeks that really gets the sugar maple sap flowing. Mid month + PNA still looks good for a nice cool down . Hopefully it holds on for a while.

[tron777]

6Z Fantasy GFS has rain to snow with an upper low stalling out over us for the 14-15th. One can only hope at this very early stage of the game. There is a good storm signal to usher in the colder pattern around V-day. In what form will it take is totally up in the air.

[tron777]

As of 1/31, the MJO has stalled out in Phase 7 or has at least slowed way down. I am seeing more guidance eventually getting it into Phase 8 by mid month. We know the first 10-14 days will have little to snow chance but not along after that, I am still thinking blocking sets up and cold and snow chances will re-emerge.

0Z EPS looks great for +PNA and -EPO developing after the 12-13th with deep troughing for V-day. Could see the EC get something too immediately after that. Nice -NAO building in to towards the end of the run. 0Z GEFS basically agrees. Trough is even a tad further west which gets us into the Apps / Mid Atl. more into the game.

I like what I am seeing change wise in the Day 10-14 period. If we can see this look continue over the next week, then confidence will increase. My thought is for 2/12-2/17 type of window for something wintry to develop as we transition into the blockier pattern. Current status of the potential event: Keep one eye open.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les and maybe just maybe the model finally got it correct with the mjo. Has been showing with each phase that it stalls in phase 4,5,6 and that never happened. I agree it looks like it is probably stalled for a few days but expect it to continue on towards phase 8 and then we will see if that continues or it heads off to the COD. Your time line looks correct and already for next week the models are starting to show a faster movement of storms so they caught on quicker than I expected. We talk a lot on here how big storms many times will be a good teller that changes are happening but the big storms don't always have to be near us. I believe the big storms that will head into western Alaska will just get the wheel turning.

[tron777]

The CPC's #1 analog centered on 2/12 for the Day 8-14 period from yesterday is: 2/7/1980, At CVG highs in the 20s lows in the teens for light snow falling over several days. Totaled a couple of inches.

Rest of analogs and CVG / Cincy's Weather around the date.

2-9-53 - was dry and in the 40s. A warming trend with a rain maker that followed.
2/28/65 - Record high of 66 but 3 days before, a record daily snowfall of 3.1" occurred 3 days earlier after heavy rain.
2/7/68 - Highs in the 30s, lows in the teens... light snow fell less then a 1/2".
2/9/04 - A mix of rain and snow 1-2" accum. Temps in the L40s falling into the 20s.
2/11/77 - Rain followed by 2" of snow - Highs in the L40s dropping into the 20s
2/18/78 - Arctic Air - Highs in the 20s lows in single digits with light snow 1-2"
2/9/70 - Rain to snow - L40s to the 20s for temps. 1.7" for V-day
2/6/86 - Rain to snow - Highs in the 30s falling into the 20s - 3" of snow on V-day
2/7/06 - Highs in the 30s, Lows in the 20s with light snow. 1" or less accum.

[tron777]

Pretty good SOI crash also indicative of things movin' and a shackin'.

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