So okay... we've been discussing a potential pattern change coming for the second half of the month. I will say that the overnight guidance, some of it, is trying to throw snow lovers a bone in the Feb 4-6th period. A frontal boundary drops into the region and stalls and we get some waves to move along it with some overrunning precip. The 0Z GEFS, and 0Z Euro have this potential with some snow possible. The OP GFS, CMC, and EPS keep the precip to our south as the high is much further to the south, thus suppression. This is for the Day 8-10 period so we are in the keep one eye open stage and nothing more. We need to watch for the low's strength, the highs strength and position to the north to see where the baroclinic zone sets up for this potential event.Beyond that... I think we briefly warm up again before a more sustainable pattern potentially sets up after the 10th with a +PNA developing, -NAO / -AO and -EPO combo. The timing of this possibility depends on the MJO. Does it stall out in Phase 7 or keep moving into the colder phases to give us some wintry chances for a 2 or 3 week period before spring comes? This is likely going to be the topic for a while in our new monthly thread. I'll get that discussion started immediately by posting the Euro Ensemble plots for the MJO. As you can see, we have more members now trying to get it into Phase 8 in roughly 3 weeks from now which could give us a decent second half of Feb.
