July 2021 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

My gauge picked up .20" for Wed.

[WxMom]

Dome has been pretty strong over Anderson! The last couple of days, nothing here. The scattered nature of is interesting to watch and how quickly they pop up then fade away!

Looking for a little help for the forecast on Saturday. Finally a memorial for my father in law who passed last year and it's an outdoor event at Sharon Woods. Services to start at 10:00. I know the weekend is forecast to be wet but wondering about the morning hours of Saturday into early afternoon. Any hope of just light rain then? Any insights into timing of rain and storms would be really appreciated!

[cloudy72]

No rain here since 7/1. Hopefully we get some today but not holding my breath. The dome is strong in this hood. LOL

[tron777]

Dome has been pretty strong over Anderson! The last couple of days, nothing here. The scattered nature of is interesting to watch and how quickly they pop up then fade away!

Looking for a little help for the forecast on Saturday. Finally a memorial for my father in law who passed last year and it's an outdoor event at Sharon Woods. Services to start at 10:00. I know the weekend is forecast to be wet but wondering about the morning hours of Saturday into early afternoon. Any hope of just light rain then? Any insights into timing of rain and storms would be really appreciated!

Currently, it looks like chances will be highest in the afternoon and evening and lower in the morning. As long as nothing overnight slides in to impact the morning hours, you're good. So sorry for your loss Gina! We went through this with my Grandma in MO a few weeks ago. Prayers to you and your family.

[tron777]

No rain here since 7/1. Hopefully we get some today but not holding my breath. The dome is strong in this hood. LOL

I had a small crack yesterday, better then a zero® We've got the marginal risk out to for this afternoon and evening. Fingers crossed!

[tron777]

For those trying to make weekend plans, the NAM, GFS, and Euro all have higher rain chances and totals for Sunday versus Saturday. We'll see if that holds or not.

[tron777]

On the surface map this morning, we've got Elsa over SC moving NE to impact the Mid Atl states and New England over the next day or two. A cold front is currently slicing through Lower Mich and NW Indiana. That will move in our direction this afternoon and evening with the isolated severe wx threat. The front sinks south for a nice Friday, then moves back north for Sat and thus scattered storms. Likely action for Sunday into next week, as the front stalls on top of us and waves of storms moves along it. Cannot rule out isolated severe wx but repeated heavy rains over the same areas will be the bigger story.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and had no ideal I had moved to Florida. Another downpour yesterday evening but not as long lasting and no thunder involved. Good chances after 4 or 5 to see a line of storms heading southeast through the tri-state. Hopefully this will help all folks in terms of rainfall. Friday looks great with lower humidity and my mow day once again. Have tons of dead leaves on the trees leftover from the cicada's that keep falling every time I get a decent amount of wind. I believe Saturday morning could be very wet as warm moist air flows over the somewhat cooler air. The models are in different camps concerning Saturday morning with the gfs and euro on the same page with the heavier rains to the southwest of us while the nam and cmc have the heaviest rain over us. I am leaning towards the nam and cmc as I always look at the time of year and tend to lean further north with this complexes this time of year.

[tron777]

Good Morning and had no ideal I had moved to Florida. Another downpour yesterday evening but not as long lasting and no thunder involved. Good chances after 4 or 5 to see a line of storms heading southeast through the tri-state. Hopefully this will help all folks in terms of rainfall. Friday looks great with lower humidity and my mow day once again. Have tons of dead leaves on the trees leftover from the cicada's that keep falling every time I get a decent amount of wind. I believe Saturday morning could be very wet as warm moist air flows over the somewhat cooler air. The models are in different camps concerning Saturday morning with the gfs and euro on the same page with the heavier rains to the southwest of us while the nam and cmc have the heaviest rain over us. I am leaning towards the nam and cmc as I always look at the time of year and tend to lean further north with this complexes this time of year.

Good morning Tim.... the position of the frontal boundary is key and as you've mentioned the models differ on its location. So that makes all the difference as you mentioned for Saturday in terms of rain chances. I'm going with the afternoon and evening with the greatest chances due to a slower progression of the front as a warm front back northward. If the faster frontal progression is correct then your call of it being wet Sat morning will work out nicely. Also, how far south does the front get Friday is also something to monitor.

[tron777]

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/07/08/goode- ... r-blog-78/

[tron777]

12Z NAM shows the scattered action this afternoon and evening. Then an MCS forms to our NW Fri night over Iowa and ILL. This thing moves SE along the frontal boundary and it tires to clip our SW counties Sat morning. The model has the action holding on long enough to impact the Metro mid Sat morning before it completely falls apart. Something to watch for those with Sat morning plans. Where is the front? What is the timing of the MCS and when does it fall apart are what's going to dictate Saturday's weather.

EDIT: Sat night and also on Sunday, the model has a couple more rounds coming thru.

[tpweather]

12Z NAM shows the scattered action this afternoon and evening. Then an MCS forms to our NW Fri night over Iowa and ILL. This thing moves SE along the frontal boundary and it tires to clip our SW counties Sat morning. The model has the action holding on long enough to impact the Metro mid Sat morning before it completely falls apart. Something to watch for those with Sat morning plans. Where is the front? What is the timing of the MCS and when does it fall apart are what's going to dictate Saturday's weather.

EDIT: Sat night and also on Sunday, the model has a couple more rounds coming thru.

Les I believe we will know more on Friday once the front as stopped and starting to move back north. If the front moves all the way to Northern Tn then the mcs will likely be a little more southwest but if the front gets held up in central or southern Ky then the chances will be moved up for our area Saturday morning.

Today the cloud cover is really holding on for early July. This will hold temps down some but if we can break out over the next few hours that should help in getting some showers and thundershowers later today. If we stay cloudy still believe some showers but less intense. Friday looks great and a little break from the humidity though outside today with the cloud cover has made it rather nice.

[tpweather]

Just to add more to the afternoon and evening forecast. The front is moving faster to the east than the south. This is common but what can happen especially if we get some sun is the that energy is looking for heat and this can cause storms to build further southwest later on. Lets see if this is the case today and if so those lone cells can get quite strong.

[tron777]

12Z NAM shows the scattered action this afternoon and evening. Then an MCS forms to our NW Fri night over Iowa and ILL. This thing moves SE along the frontal boundary and it tires to clip our SW counties Sat morning. The model has the action holding on long enough to impact the Metro mid Sat morning before it completely falls apart. Something to watch for those with Sat morning plans. Where is the front? What is the timing of the MCS and when does it fall apart are what's going to dictate Saturday's weather.

EDIT: Sat night and also on Sunday, the model has a couple more rounds coming thru.

Les I believe we will know more on Friday once the front as stopped and starting to move back north. If the front moves all the way to Northern Tn then the mcs will likely be a little more southwest but if the front gets held up in central or southern Ky then the chances will be moved up for our area Saturday morning.

Today the cloud cover is really holding on for early July. This will hold temps down some but if we can break out over the next few hours that should help in getting some showers and thundershowers later today. If we stay cloudy still believe some showers but less intense. Friday looks great and a little break from the humidity though outside today with the cloud cover has made it rather nice.

Great post Tim! You've got everything covered perfectly on what we need to watch.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has scattered to likely POPS for this afternoon and evening and the weekend. The same into early next week before POPS start to dwindle, but not totally disappear. I think there could be some screw zones even for this weekend. Exception being if an MCS forms and tracks perfectly, like right down I-74 into the Tri-state then turns east. (Love that snow shield track with a clipper in the winter)

[tron777]

Let's look at the reality of it per the SPC mesopage... Clouds are thinning with better sunshine prospects NW and SE of the I-71 corridor. Going to take a little more time for that area of AV Country to destabilize. So heating is key. The frontal timing itself is going to be good. Better CAPE and juicer dews are just lurking to our SW ready to be pulled in ahead of the front later this afternoon. Poor mod level lapse rates. Steep low level lapse rates are lurking to the SW. Wind shear is poor. Better shear is weak NW over ILL , Michigan and NW Indiana. So we've got some pros and cons. Marginal risk is good. Could see a damaging wind gust, thunder, lightning, and some heavy rain where cells fire up.

As far as timing goes, like that 4-9pm window still. 12Z ILN sounding from this morning shows a convective temp of 79 degrees. DCAPE is over 1000 so there's your isolated wind threat with the stronger cells showing up.

[MJSun]

Got a chance to take a quick dip in our pool last night between pop-ups, the pool water is FANTASTIC after a few hot days.

[tron777]

Decent storms north and NW of us now.

[tron777]

We're now under a sight risk as well for severe wx, mainly for damaging winds.

[snowbo]

Decent storms north and NW of us now.

Looks like I'm going to be victimized by the dreaded "split". Strong storms to my northeast and southwest. Just a pavement wetter so far.

[WxMom]

Thanks for the great analysis as usual guys! So valuable and very much appreciated!

[tron777]

NW counties of AV Country... Dayton and CMH areas... you guys are up first to bat with these storms.

[tron777]

MD issued for the area - 40% chance of a watch being issued:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1199.html

DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, regional radar mosaics and visible
imagery have shown thunderstorms increasing in intensity and
coverage across portions of south-central Indiana and eastern
Illinois. Located along a cold front front beneath the western
portions of a mid-level trough, these storms are ongoing in a
moderately unstable/sheared environment. Obs and SPC mesoanalysis
indicate dewpoints in the 70s F are contributing to around 1500-2000
J/kg of MLCAPE despite modest mid-level lapse rates. Mid-level flow
behind the trough is not overly strong, but is supporting 25-30 kts
of effective shear. This should act to organize storms into
multicell clusters and short line segments capable of damaging wind
gusts.

As additional storm development takes place this afternoon, some
upscale growth into a more organized linear segment appears
possible. As such, an additional risk for damaging winds may develop
near and immediately south of the Ohio River across portions of
northern Kentucky and southwestern Ohio. Uncertainty on the nature
of the severe threat remains, but convective trends suggest a watch
could be needed this afternoon.

[tron777]

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Fayette County in east central Indiana...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 1252 PM EDT, radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms.
Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the
advisory area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen.

Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Connersville, Glenwood, Waterloo, Columbia, Bunker Hill, Mettel
Field, Nulltown, Alpine, Bentonville and Falmouth.

Additional rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches is expected over the area.

[tron777]

Euro has changed its tune. We get that MCS and an inch of rain falls Sat morning at CVG. The risk of what Tim mentioned is there. 50/50 chance right now imo.