January 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Les you have mentioned how the MJO has been underestimating the strength all season and you are correct. Need this to continue over the next couple of weeks and though its not the say all in forecasting the mjo can be helpful in predicting possible outcomes. I have not seen any of DT's recent reports but I have been earlier than most on the cold returning to the lower 48 and really thought by next weekend that would start to happen in the northern plains so I will be too early but like you said is it more towards the middle of the month. Just give me two snowstorms in February that are more than 4 inches each and that will help but please no sleet storms or ice events.

I am right there with you Tim! I am sick and tired of sleet and frz rain as you know. Pure snow and I am good to go. I checked the Ensembles and after 2/7, the 0Z EPS has ridging over AK and Canada with the STJ cutting underneath. The GEFS does this after 2/5 and towards the end of the run, you start seeing a +PNA too, which is after the 10th. We have a little pain to get thru first of course, but hopefully in 2-3 weeks, we'll start seeing the pay off. The GEPS (CMC Ensemble) also is in agreement with the GEFS.

[tpweather]

The ensembles have been seeing the change before the operational so that is a good sign. Still need certain things to happen of course but getting these 10-14 days of above normal temps is something you must have to get the cold to return. We see the build up of cold and its strong so that is a good sign as well and different than Dec when the coldest of air was in eastern Europe and western Siberia compared to this time with the coldest in Alaska, northwest Canada and eastern Siberia. This leads me to believe the time period will be much shorter than December in getting the cold in the lower 48.

[Trevor]

Les you have mentioned how the MJO has been underestimating the strength all season and you are correct. Need this to continue over the next couple of weeks and though its not the say all in forecasting the mjo can be helpful in predicting possible outcomes. I have not seen any of DT's recent reports but I have been earlier than most on the cold returning to the lower 48 and really thought by next weekend that would start to happen in the northern plains so I will be too early but like you said is it more towards the middle of the month. Just give me two snowstorms in February that are more than 4 inches each and that will help but please no sleet storms or ice events.

I am right there with you Tim! I am sick and tired of sleet and frz rain as you know. Pure snow and I am good to go. I checked the Ensembles and after 2/7, the 0Z EPS has ridging over AK and Canada with the STJ cutting underneath. The GEFS does this after 2/5 and towards the end of the run, you start seeing a +PNA too, which is after the 10th. We have a little pain to get thru first of course, but hopefully in 2-3 weeks, we'll start seeing the pay off. The GEPS (CMC Ensemble) also is in agreement with the GEFS.

Pure snow events seem like a thing of the past around here. Shoot even ten-fifteen years ago we would reel them in easily. Now not so much! We are either Sleet City, slopfest, or rain to snow

Something is definitely different these days. Cause? Who knows. It's probably something that even our modern science isn't capable of fully grasping or modeling. But it's def a lot different than even as recent as the 2000s and 2010s

[Bgoney]

MJO is in Phase 6 as of 1/24 per the Aussies. Some models keep it moving into the colder phases so our mid Feb call would be solid if that is correct. Other models stall it out in Phase 7 which in February is no good. I agree with the MJO moving right along. As I have said many times, the models have been garbage for MJO forecasts. They have been too weak with the amplitude and they keep stalling it out which has not happened. It keeps moving which is good news for us if we want things to indeed change down the road.

Our return to arctic air and how long is in the hands of the MJO . ATM trends have beeen to slow or stall in 7 . That would cool down the west a bit and at least delay any arctic air into the OV. Need to get rid of any ridging anywhere near the Canadian/US border that is east of the Rockies

[tron777]

Les you have mentioned how the MJO has been underestimating the strength all season and you are correct. Need this to continue over the next couple of weeks and though its not the say all in forecasting the mjo can be helpful in predicting possible outcomes. I have not seen any of DT's recent reports but I have been earlier than most on the cold returning to the lower 48 and really thought by next weekend that would start to happen in the northern plains so I will be too early but like you said is it more towards the middle of the month. Just give me two snowstorms in February that are more than 4 inches each and that will help but please no sleet storms or ice events.

I am right there with you Tim! I am sick and tired of sleet and frz rain as you know. Pure snow and I am good to go. I checked the Ensembles and after 2/7, the 0Z EPS has ridging over AK and Canada with the STJ cutting underneath. The GEFS does this after 2/5 and towards the end of the run, you start seeing a +PNA too, which is after the 10th. We have a little pain to get thru first of course, but hopefully in 2-3 weeks, we'll start seeing the pay off. The GEPS (CMC Ensemble) also is in agreement with the GEFS.

Pure snow events seem like a thing of the past around here. Shoot even ten-fifteen years ago we would reel them in easily. Now not so much! We are either Sleet City, slopfest, or rain to snow

Something is definitely different these days. Cause? Who knows. It's probably something that even our modern science isn't capable of fully grasping or modeling. But it's def a lot different than even as recent as the 2000s and 2010s

I think it's just a bad cycle we are in. Go back and look at older snow data for Cincinnati I'll bet you'd find the same occurrences.

[tron777]

MJO is in Phase 6 as of 1/24 per the Aussies. Some models keep it moving into the colder phases so our mid Feb call would be solid if that is correct. Other models stall it out in Phase 7 which in February is no good. I agree with the MJO moving right along. As I have said many times, the models have been garbage for MJO forecasts. They have been too weak with the amplitude and they keep stalling it out which has not happened. It keeps moving which is good news for us if we want things to indeed change down the road.

Our return to arctic air and how long is in the hands of the MJO . ATM trends have beeen to slow or stall in 7 . That would cool down the west a bit and at least delay any arctic air into the OV. Need to get rid of any ridging anywhere near the Canadian/US border that is east of the Rockies

I absolutely agree that the MJO has been driving the bus for most of the winter. I am just riding with the trends we've been seeing with regards to higher amplitude and not stalling it out.

[Trevor]

Les you have mentioned how the MJO has been underestimating the strength all season and you are correct. Need this to continue over the next couple of weeks and though its not the say all in forecasting the mjo can be helpful in predicting possible outcomes. I have not seen any of DT's recent reports but I have been earlier than most on the cold returning to the lower 48 and really thought by next weekend that would start to happen in the northern plains so I will be too early but like you said is it more towards the middle of the month. Just give me two snowstorms in February that are more than 4 inches each and that will help but please no sleet storms or ice events.

I am right there with you Tim! I am sick and tired of sleet and frz rain as you know. Pure snow and I am good to go. I checked the Ensembles and after 2/7, the 0Z EPS has ridging over AK and Canada with the STJ cutting underneath. The GEFS does this after 2/5 and towards the end of the run, you start seeing a +PNA too, which is after the 10th. We have a little pain to get thru first of course, but hopefully in 2-3 weeks, we'll start seeing the pay off. The GEPS (CMC Ensemble) also is in agreement with the GEFS.

Pure snow events seem like a thing of the past around here. Shoot even ten-fifteen years ago we would reel them in easily. Now not so much! We are either Sleet City, slopfest, or rain to snow

Something is definitely different these days. Cause? Who knows. It's probably something that even our modern science isn't capable of fully grasping or modeling. But it's def a lot different than even as recent as the 2000s and 2010s

I think it's just a bad cycle we are in. Go back and look at older snow data for Cincinnati I'll bet you'd find the same occurrences.

That’s probably the best explanation we can come up with at this point for sure. I believe I speak for most that this cycle can end ANYTIME

[tpweather]

MJO is in Phase 6 as of 1/24 per the Aussies. Some models keep it moving into the colder phases so our mid Feb call would be solid if that is correct. Other models stall it out in Phase 7 which in February is no good. I agree with the MJO moving right along. As I have said many times, the models have been garbage for MJO forecasts. They have been too weak with the amplitude and they keep stalling it out which has not happened. It keeps moving which is good news for us if we want things to indeed change down the road.

Our return to arctic air and how long is in the hands of the MJO . ATM trends have beeen to slow or stall in 7 . That would cool down the west a bit and at least delay any arctic air into the OV. Need to get rid of any ridging anywhere near the Canadian/US border that is east of the Rockies

I agree and if we get that ridging to go further north into northern Canada then we have some of the blocking we need. The mjo forecasts have been horrible and the amount of time they show stalling in a certain phase has not worked out. Getting some really out their forecasts as well which shows me something is up and the models will correct in a few days. Another way to get blocking is the big lows off the coast of eastern Canada and this can form a strong high over Greenland which happens quite often in February and why the east coast usually has their heart of winter in February as the oceans are colder so less warm moist air to enter the coastline. If the mjo stalls in phase 7 I agree going to take sometime and really this time of year phase 1 and 2 is where we would like to end up

[Bgoney]

What snowpack remains to our north is going to take a hit over the next week to 10 days . Highs in the 40s to at times around 50 in the Midwest and plains , with no or little new snow expected during this timeframe

IMG_1292.jpeg

IMG_1295.jpeg

[tron777]

Les you have mentioned how the MJO has been underestimating the strength all season and you are correct. Need this to continue over the next couple of weeks and though its not the say all in forecasting the mjo can be helpful in predicting possible outcomes. I have not seen any of DT's recent reports but I have been earlier than most on the cold returning to the lower 48 and really thought by next weekend that would start to happen in the northern plains so I will be too early but like you said is it more towards the middle of the month. Just give me two snowstorms in February that are more than 4 inches each and that will help but please no sleet storms or ice events.

I am right there with you Tim! I am sick and tired of sleet and frz rain as you know. Pure snow and I am good to go. I checked the Ensembles and after 2/7, the 0Z EPS has ridging over AK and Canada with the STJ cutting underneath. The GEFS does this after 2/5 and towards the end of the run, you start seeing a +PNA too, which is after the 10th. We have a little pain to get thru first of course, but hopefully in 2-3 weeks, we'll start seeing the pay off. The GEPS (CMC Ensemble) also is in agreement with the GEFS.

Pure snow events seem like a thing of the past around here. Shoot even ten-fifteen years ago we would reel them in easily. Now not so much! We are either Sleet City, slopfest, or rain to snow

Something is definitely different these days. Cause? Who knows. It's probably something that even our modern science isn't capable of fully grasping or modeling. But it's def a lot different than even as recent as the 2000s and 2010s

I think it's just a bad cycle we are in. Go back and look at older snow data for Cincinnati I'll bet you'd find the same occurrences.

That’s probably the best explanation we can come up with at this point for sure. I believe I speak for most that this cycle can end ANYTIME

Absolutely!

[tron777]

What snowpack remains to our north is going to take a hit over the next week to 10 days . Highs in the 40s to at times around 50 in the Midwest and plains , with no or little new snow expected during this timeframe




IMG_1292.jpegIMG_1295.jpeg

Agreed. There will be some torching for sure and I use that term since it really is for that part of the country.

[dce]

Somebody just got Nam'ed.

[tron777]

12Z NAM trying to give us a period of wet snow on the back end of the weekend system for Sun morning. A couple of things... surface temps are trash so it will be tough to see anything sticking. Second, it is purely going to be driven on dynamic cooling. There will be rain only if the precip rate is light. You must have good frontogenic forcing and some lift with the deformation band to get some snow to fall. You will also need a heavy snowfall rate to see any accumulation... period. The flakes will be big and fat though if this situation were to occur and if anything were to stick, it would melt as soon as the snow stops or if the precip lightens up, it'll change back to rain anyway. So if we can see some of these factors materialize, it is possible for this next event which begins as rain Sat afternoon and Sat night.... end as some wet snow on the back side. I am not forecasting any accumulation. It will come down to a nowcast it is typically does with these marginal events.

[tpweather]

Concerning long term and nothing new though timing will change and understand we are more than a week out until we start seeing the changes we need. The Tellies all look good and that is nice to see all in our favor. Believe its going to be a very busy month because the models are showing more storms coming into southern California instead of central Mexico. This does not mean tons of snow but it means storm systems should be much closer to us than we saw in Dec and Jan. How long will the cold last is another question and a couple of items and one is the NAO and when it goes negative it tends to block the system up. Second is the STJ and how active will it be because if you get a break somewhere this can allow warm air to flow further north especially as you get later in February. Enjoy next week if you like boring weather but hopefully that will change come about soon after.

[Bgoney]

Next 7-10 days are going to be awesome for the Rockies and much the rest of the west . Going to see some big-time snow and qpf amounts adding to their water year

[tron777]

12Z HRRR, RGEM, GFS and Euro keep any snow chances North of Cincy for Sunday morning. NAM kind of seems to be on its own at this time.

[Bgoney]

That’s a massive south central Canadian ridge on all models for the first week of Feb. Depending on position will give the OV near normal temps or slightly above since we’re on the downslope side. At the same time this is what gives the Midwest and plains warmer temps being on the more southerly flow side

[tpweather]

That’s a massive south central Canadian ridge on all models for the first week of Feb. Depending on position will give the OV near normal temps or slightly above since we’re on the downslope side. At the same time this is what gives the Midwest and plains warmer temps being on the more southerly flow side

No doubt and the northern plains and upper mid-west is having one warm winter for them. That ridge is one of the keys for us to turn colder as lows from the pacific will sooner or later come under that ridge as it is pushed northward. Yes it takes time but you can almost see how the pattern is changing by looking between the lines. Going to be a wild February across the lower 48 as Alaska has had their turn this pasts week and into next week

[tpweather]

This next system has a little more punch than I thought and if we stay out of the dry slot I can see .5-1.0 possible.

[Bgoney]

That’s a massive south central Canadian ridge on all models for the first week of Feb. Depending on position will give the OV near normal temps or slightly above since we’re on the downslope side. At the same time this is what gives the Midwest and plains warmer temps being on the more southerly flow side

No doubt and the northern plains and upper mid-west is having one warm winter for them. That ridge is one of the keys for us to turn colder as lows from the pacific will sooner or later come under that ridge as it is pushed northward. Yes it takes time but you can almost see how the pattern is changing by looking between the lines. Going to be a wild February across the lower 48 as Alaska has had their turn this pasts week and into next week

I think That ridge will still have to vacate that general vicinity preferably sooner rather than later or we stay with the near to slightly above temps longer and that’s to close to the dreaded “marginal airmass” .

[Bgoney]

IMG_1302.jpeg

[tron777]

59 here today but that was at midnight. Down to 47 now. Precip amounts for our next system are as follows (at CVG):

18Z NAM - 0.70"
18Z GFS - 0.65"
12Z Euro - 0.79"

As you can see, models are in pretty good agreement at this point.

[tron777]

Seasonal Snowfall.png

[tpweather]

Seasonal Snowfall.png

Parts of Tn getting the same amount as southern Minnesota lol

[tron777]

Seasonal Snowfall.png

Parts of Tn getting the same amount as southern Minnesota lol

Looks like a strong El Nino to me, but still pretty sad all the same.