January 2024 Weather Discussion

[Trevor]

The next system of interest will be around Thurs and Fri of next week Jan 18-19th. We've got a northern clipper system dropping in as well as another southern wave. Do we see any interaction between the two? Does the arctic air shunt everything south of us again? Stay tuned...

I actually like our chances better with this one. Cold air tries to ease a bit so I don't think suppression will be as big of a player. Ice event, snow event, or ice/snow are what I am keeping my eye on.

I could see ice as a concern since we'd have warmer air in the upper levels with the cold, dense arctic air slow to scour out at the surface. Depends on the strength of the wave and WAA as usual. Todays GFS has a KY / TN special again while the CMC was a little better but the low pops a bit too late in WV. Heaviest snows were still south.

Yes agreed. It's something else to watch! The storm train keeps chugging along. Love it!

[Middletown Dave]

Some sleet mixing in with the rain in Middletown

[tron777]

The next system of interest will be around Thurs and Fri of next week Jan 18-19th. We've got a northern clipper system dropping in as well as another southern wave. Do we see any interaction between the two? Does the arctic air shunt everything south of us again? Stay tuned...

I actually like our chances better with this one. Cold air tries to ease a bit so I don't think suppression will be as big of a player. Ice event, snow event, or ice/snow are what I am keeping my eye on.

I could see ice as a concern since we'd have warmer air in the upper levels with the cold, dense arctic air slow to scour out at the surface. Depends on the strength of the wave and WAA as usual. Todays GFS has a KY / TN special again while the CMC was a little better but the low pops a bit too late in WV. Heaviest snows were still south.

Yes agreed. It's something else to watch! The storm train keeps chugging along. Love it!

Just wish the storms were more impactful in the snow category but such as life where we live lol

[Trevor]

The next system of interest will be around Thurs and Fri of next week Jan 18-19th. We've got a northern clipper system dropping in as well as another southern wave. Do we see any interaction between the two? Does the arctic air shunt everything south of us again? Stay tuned...

I actually like our chances better with this one. Cold air tries to ease a bit so I don't think suppression will be as big of a player. Ice event, snow event, or ice/snow are what I am keeping my eye on.

I could see ice as a concern since we'd have warmer air in the upper levels with the cold, dense arctic air slow to scour out at the surface. Depends on the strength of the wave and WAA as usual. Todays GFS has a KY / TN special again while the CMC was a little better but the low pops a bit too late in WV. Heaviest snows were still south.

Yes agreed. It's something else to watch! The storm train keeps chugging along. Love it!

Just wish the storms were more impactful in the snow category but such as life where we live lol

Yeah that's the nature of the beast when you live somewhere that averages around 20" a season. Plenty of duds in there to make that average lol

[MJSun]

Just wish the storms were more impactful in the snow category but such as life where we live lol

So so true.

Did everyone see the absolutely stunning sky this morning?

PXL_20240112_125058332.jpg

[MJSun]

One thing I haven’t seen yet is “The throwing of the Towel!”

Hey man! I live in Pierce Township/Amelia too on SR 749 or Ten Mile Rd.

10-4.. My brother in law lives on 749
We live on small farm off Lewis Rd

I live off 125 by the Bard Nursery and drive down Nine Mile to Kellogg for my commute.

[winterstormjoe]

Well, considering that the 00z & 06z GFS had just the northern piece coming through next Thursday and the southern piece moving along the Gulf coast, the 12z GFS as bumped the southern energy much more NW for Friday/Saturday! I'm sorry, this is all I have to chime in with! LOL

[tron777]

Well, considering that the 00z & 06z GFS had just the northern piece coming through next Thursday and the southern piece moving along the Gulf coast, the 12z GFS as bumped the southern energy much more NW for Friday/Saturday! I'm sorry, this is all I have to chime in with! LOL

That is the system Trev and I have begun to discuss in this thread. That one is going to be another headache as the cold air tries to relax and this storm fires up along the leading edge of the next round of cold air.

[winterstormjoe]

Well, considering that the 00z & 06z GFS had just the northern piece coming through next Thursday and the southern piece moving along the Gulf coast, the 12z GFS as bumped the southern energy much more NW for Friday/Saturday! I'm sorry, this is all I have to chime in with! LOL

That is the system Trev and I have begun to discuss in this thread. That one is going to be another headache as the cold air tries to relax and this storm fires up along the leading edge of the next round of cold air.

Eventually, a blind squirl will find a nut in this active STJ/Arctic setup for a snowstorm, is all I can say!

[tron777]

12z Euro has a 1008 MB low over extreme Western NC next Friday morning. That looks better then what the 0Z run showed.

[Wxlrnr]

Just wish the storms were more impactful in the snow category but such as life where we live lol

So so true.

Did everyone see the absolutely stunning sky this morning?
PXL_20240112_125058332.jpg

Great pics, wild how the double rainbow was visible by the Ohio river and Amberley this morning.

[tron777]

18Z GFS has a Thurs night into next Friday for the timing of the next system down the road. 0.17" for QPF. Hopefully, we'll see something stronger when we get closer for this particular system. 12Z Euro was better, as it had 0.29" of QPF.

[Bgoney]

Don’t be surprised to see at least a dusting late Saturday/early Sunday morning with the arctic front

[tron777]

Don’t be surprised to see at least a dusting late Saturday/early Sunday morning with the arctic front

That would work for me! I'd like to see something before everything freezes up. 18Z NAM and GFS only have scattered snow showers but the hi-res guidance is picking up on it. 18Z HRRR shows a band of snow coming thru with the arctic front Sat evening in that 9-12 am window. 18Z RGEM also showing something too just a few hours later.

[Trevor]

Don’t be surprised to see at least a dusting late Saturday/early Sunday morning with the arctic front

Yeah I’ve been noticing that on the models over the last 36 hrs.

[wxpatriot1]

One thing I haven’t seen yet is “The throwing of the Towel!”

Hey man! I live in Pierce Township/Amelia too on SR 749 or Ten Mile Rd.

10-4.. My brother in law lives on 749
We live on small farm off Lewis Rd

I live off 125 by the Bard Nursery and drive down Nine Mile to Kellogg for my commute.

MJSun

I take that route now to since we moved. Since we are going to the same place, let me know if you need a ride in a pinch. Thanks for your assistance last semester!

[MVWxObserver]

Well on the last day before the Siberian Express , CVG reached 49 and both DAY / CMH 48 on Fri.

[Bgoney]

IMG_1176.jpeg

[tron777]

Good morning all! My temp is down to 20 degrees and I woke up to a dusting of snow on the grass, street, driveway etc. Today starts our run of below freezing temps which may last until 1/22. We may briefly get above freezing this Thursday ahead of the next storm but otherwise it will be very cold for a while.

Our next challenge is the arctic front due in tonight which will bring in bitterly cold air tomorrow thru Tues of next week. Hi res guidance continues to bring in a band of snow with this feature. Another dusting to 1/2" is possible. The winds will remain elevated the next several days as well. NWS ILN has a wind chill advisory issued from 1am tonight thru 1pm Sunday.

We are covering the Mon / Tues southern slider in the other thread. Our next system after that still looks to move in late Thurs into the day on Friday (Jan. 18-19th). Some models show decent accumulations, others do not. Still pretty early to see how this one will evolve. We get one more blast of arctic air behind it before we moderate.

I expect the cold pattern to be over after 1/22. We will warm up and probably even get some plain old rain the last week of January. After that, I expect the arctic pattern to reload as well as continued storminess from the STJ. These are my overall thoughts for the rest of the month and into Feb.

[tron777]

BG SnowTalk! Video just issued.

[tron777]

I continue to see decent snow showers this morning IMBY. Just went to the store and main roads are fine, but neighborhood roads and side streets do have icy patches. 21 degrees. 12Z RGEM was okay for tonight's snow shower activity with the arctic front, but the 12Z HRRR is really showing widespread coverage! I would not be surprised to see folks get a 1/2" out of it with locally higher amounts. Hi res models are the way to go here versus the global models. This is arctic air and models will struggle with the snow shower coverage we do see. Current radar shows a band of snow showers in the Topeka, KS and KC, MO areas. That is the arctic front. I checked the SPC Mesopage in that area and there is some nice 700 MB frontogenic forcing associated with the arctic cold front. There should be plenty of lift tonight. Timing should be sometime after 8 or 9pm this evening for the front's arrival. We'll need to nowcast it for sure. This might not be a bad little event!

EDIT: Lapse rates look very steep as well with the arctic front. There maybe some heavier bursts of snow depending on how things go in localized areas.

[Trevor]

I continue to see decent snow showers this morning IMBY. Just went to the store and main roads are fine, but neighborhood roads and side streets do have icy patches. 21 degrees. 12Z RGEM was okay for tonight's snow shower activity with the arctic front, but the 12Z HRRR is really showing widespread coverage! I would not be surprised to see folks get a 1/2" out of it with locally higher amounts. Hi res models are the way to go here versus the global models. This is arctic air and models will struggle with the snow shower coverage we do see. Current radar shows a band of snow showers in the Topeka, KS and KC, MO areas. That is the arctic front. I checked the SPC Mesopage in that area and there is some nice 700 MB frontogenic forcing associated with the arctic cold front. There should be plenty of lift tonight. Timing should be sometime after 8 or 9pm this evening for the front's arrival. We'll need to nowcast it for sure. This might not be a bad little event!

EDIT: Lapse rates look very steep as well with the arctic front. There maybe some heavier bursts of snow depending on how things go in localized areas.

We are on the same page. I went up to 1” and mentioned heavy bursts of snow likely on my FB video update.

[tron777]

I continue to see decent snow showers this morning IMBY. Just went to the store and main roads are fine, but neighborhood roads and side streets do have icy patches. 21 degrees. 12Z RGEM was okay for tonight's snow shower activity with the arctic front, but the 12Z HRRR is really showing widespread coverage! I would not be surprised to see folks get a 1/2" out of it with locally higher amounts. Hi res models are the way to go here versus the global models. This is arctic air and models will struggle with the snow shower coverage we do see. Current radar shows a band of snow showers in the Topeka, KS and KC, MO areas. That is the arctic front. I checked the SPC Mesopage in that area and there is some nice 700 MB frontogenic forcing associated with the arctic cold front. There should be plenty of lift tonight. Timing should be sometime after 8 or 9pm this evening for the front's arrival. We'll need to nowcast it for sure. This might not be a bad little event!

EDIT: Lapse rates look very steep as well with the arctic front. There maybe some heavier bursts of snow depending on how things go in localized areas.

We are on the same page. I went up to 1” and mentioned heavy bursts of snow likely on my FB video update.

Sounds good Trev!

[tron777]

12Z GFS has a long duration light snow event for our S counties Thurs and Fri. CVG gets 0.25" of QPF on this run. Long ways to go for this system. Heaviest snows continues to be south of our local forecast area. 12Z CMC shows a more northern stream dominated wave which is better news for AV Country. GEFS members are a mix of the two ideas and 2 or 3 of the members show a pretty amp'ed up STJ shortwave with a low track up the Apps and we get clobbered. 12Z UKIE has barely anything... it shows a weak strung out piece of crap.

[Bgoney]

That wind chill means business, what a slap in the face. Brrrrrr