Southern OV Snowstorm? Jan 15-16

[Bgoney]

Normally I’d go with the default snow forecast total of an inch or less for the region that more often than not seems to works out, but a little different situation here. Obviously moisture will be at a premium but you can’t ignore the 17-1 or so ratios. How far north and west can moisture back its way into the region and to the 1-70 crew. So , I’m going with a first call of 2” or less for the tri-cities triangle. And yes that does include 0

[tron777]

6Z GFS was a tad better. The first wave shears out pretty much on Monday but we do manage a long duration 0.18" of QPF on late Mon night into most of Tues at CVG. Man... I wish we could get a bump NW to get into the deeper moisture, but it is what it is. As Trev said definitely a Central and SKY special. I just hope the cold arctic air doesn't eat away at our QPF. That is a concern as we are on the northern fringes of this thing.

[tron777]

6Z GEFS I also think was a nice improvement considering how far south the Ensemble Guidance has been, I am gaining confidence in the two part solution. Late Sun night into MLK maybe a touch of snow, but don't be surprised if we are dry all the same. The main piece still looks to be late Mon night and Tuesday. We'll just have to wait and see how strong the system gets. The stronger the system, the more moisture can get thrown back our way. If the flow remains flat then the cold arctic air will suppress it to the south. We've got data showing both of these possibilities so honestly it's a wait and see game. I do think we should gain a lot more clarity tomorrow once La Bomba 2.0 gets out of the way.

[airwolf76]

overnight euro went right and ots for my area

[tron777]

overnight euro went right and ots for my area

That solution maybe wrong. 6Z Euro only goes out to Hour 90 but it is a nice improvement. Upper levels aren't nearly as flat so the Euro may finally be catching on to some of the other models. 12Z Euro I would assume should continue that improvement this afternoon.

[Bgoney]

6Z GEFS I also think was a nice improvement considering how far south the Ensemble Guidance has been, I am gaining confidence in the two part solution. Late Sun night into MLK maybe a touch of snow, but don't be surprised if we are dry all the same. The main piece still looks to be late Mon night and Tuesday. We'll just have to wait and see how strong the system gets. The stronger the system, the more moisture can get thrown back our way. If the flow remains flat then the cold arctic air will suppress it to the south. We've got data showing both of these possibilities so honestly it's a wait and see game. I do think we should gain a lot more clarity tomorrow once La Bomba 2.0 gets out of the way.

Agree, both EPS, GEFs improved

[Trevor]

6Z GEFS I also think was a nice improvement considering how far south the Ensemble Guidance has been, I am gaining confidence in the two part solution. Late Sun night into MLK maybe a touch of snow, but don't be surprised if we are dry all the same. The main piece still looks to be late Mon night and Tuesday. We'll just have to wait and see how strong the system gets. The stronger the system, the more moisture can get thrown back our way. If the flow remains flat then the cold arctic air will suppress it to the south. We've got data showing both of these possibilities so honestly it's a wait and see game. I do think we should gain a lot more clarity tomorrow once La Bomba 2.0 gets out of the way.

I removed the "Potential Winter Storm" tag from my eight day graphic and lowered PoPs, but did make note that there is still some uncertainty and I that I may have to beef things back up in future updates. That is a public forecast (different than here which is a forum for weather fanatics) so adjustments were made.

[airwolf76]

overnight euro went right and ots for my area

That solution maybe wrong. 6Z Euro only goes out to Hour 90 but it is a nice improvement. Upper levels aren't nearly as flat so the Euro may finally be catching on to some of the other models. 12Z Euro I would assume should continue that improvement this afternoon.

it may be yes. wunderground still has me at almost 6" for Tuesday

[tron777]

6Z GEFS I also think was a nice improvement considering how far south the Ensemble Guidance has been, I am gaining confidence in the two part solution. Late Sun night into MLK maybe a touch of snow, but don't be surprised if we are dry all the same. The main piece still looks to be late Mon night and Tuesday. We'll just have to wait and see how strong the system gets. The stronger the system, the more moisture can get thrown back our way. If the flow remains flat then the cold arctic air will suppress it to the south. We've got data showing both of these possibilities so honestly it's a wait and see game. I do think we should gain a lot more clarity tomorrow once La Bomba 2.0 gets out of the way.

I removed the "Potential Winter Storm" tag from my eight day graphic and lowered PoPs, but did make note that there is still some uncertainty and I that I may have to beef things back up in future updates. That is a public forecast (different than here which is a forum for weather fanatics) so adjustments were made.

10-4 Trev. Understood.

[tron777]

overnight euro went right and ots for my area

That solution maybe wrong. 6Z Euro only goes out to Hour 90 but it is a nice improvement. Upper levels aren't nearly as flat so the Euro may finally be catching on to some of the other models. 12Z Euro I would assume should continue that improvement this afternoon.

it may be yes. wunderground still has me at almost 6" for Tuesday

It'll be interesting for your area to see how strong the low gets and how close to the coast it tracks.

[Trevor]

Comparison between the 00z and 06z GFS.

[winterstormjoe]

Comparison between the 00z and 06z GFS.

Trevor, lets just lock in the 06z GFS and call it a day! Funny how it seems that the 06 GFS has been the juicer run all this week!

[airwolf76]

which one is the newest run on gfs >?

[DJKuo]

Usually I’ve found that if I’m in the bullseye for snow at this stage in the game, it usually doesn’t turn out that way. (Just me trying to come up with some positive reverse psychology)

[tron777]

which one is the newest run on gfs >?

6Z run is the current run. 12Z run will start up in about an hour.

[tron777]

Usually I’ve found that if I’m in the bullseye for snow at this stage in the game, it usually doesn’t turn out that way. (Just me trying to come up with some positive reverse psychology)

Sounds good to me DJ! We'll take any kind of positivity that we can get.

[tron777]

Starting to see some model agreement here with the 12Z NAM and RGEM. At 84 hours, both models develop a low down in the Western Gulf. This is what will become the main storm for the Lower OV, TN Valley, Mid Atlantic and East Coast next week. How strong that low gets as well as its track, will determine how much moisture we can muster up in the cold arctic airmass that will be entrenched over our region.

[dce]

Starting to see some model agreement here with the 12Z NAM and RGEM. At 84 hours, both models develop a low down in the Western Gulf. This is what will become the main storm for the Lower OV, TN Valley, Mid Atlantic and East Coast next week. How strong that low gets as well as its track, will determine how much moisture we can muster up in the cold arctic airmass that will be entrenched over our region.

It seems like it boils down to whether or not the second wave can meet up with the main storm coming through the south and up the east coast. That is our only shot. The first wave will hit Kentucky but not Ohio. If that second wave fails to produce like the GFS has been showing for days now, then it's on to the next storm due AV land.

[tron777]

A terrible 12Z GFS run. Flow is flatter again and the arctic air keeps everything well south.

[dce]

The GFS is more out to sea on this run. No help for us.

[tron777]

12Z Canadian still isn't backing down trying to drop a couple of inches on most of the region on Tuesday.

[airwolf76]

which one is the newest run on gfs >?

6Z run is the current run. 12Z run will start up in about an hour.

I should know that. I dont know what I was thinking

[winterstormjoe]

Why does the 06Z GFS runs keep teasing us only to go flat again with the 12x runs! frustrating!

[tron777]

Why does the 06Z GFS runs keep teasing us only to go flat again with the 12x runs! frustrating!

I hear you Joe. It's the old windshield wiper effect. Back and forth. I would expect a miss to the south but be pleasantly surprised if we can squeeze an inch or two out of the deal.

[dce]

The UKMET is back to showing a little snow for us. The models sure are having a hard time figuring out these waves of energy. Expect more changes in the coming model runs. This is a 24 hr snowfall map from about midday Monday to midday Tuesday at a 10:1 ratio. You would think with higher ratios this could be a 2-4 inch snowfall?