Southern OV Snowstorm? Jan 15-16

[Trevor]

Definitely slower through 99.

[Trevor]

Further south than 00z and 06z. Enough for a couple inches locally but the heaviest is down in CB Country,

[tron777]

Further south than 00z and 06z. Enough for a couple inches locally but the heaviest is down in CB Country,

So much for my thoughts on that run! The trough takes too long to sharpen up versus 6Z. If you look at 500 MB between the two runs, up north it is a completely different look and our shortwave gets sheared out more on the 12Z where on the 6Z run it did not.

[tron777]

12Z Canadian (and prior runs too) continue to show a much bigger storm system! At 500 MB you can see why. Our shortwave doesn't get sheared out and you even get a little phasing with the STJ and polar jets too.

[dce]

12Z Canadian (and prior runs too) continue to show a much bigger storm system! At 500 MB you can see why. Our shortwave doesn't get sheared out and you even get a little phasing with the STJ and polar jets too.

The CMC and Euro continue to be in the stronger camp. I like those odds. The CMC has had this exact same look for days now. Doesn't mean it's right though.

[tron777]

12Z Canadian (and prior runs too) continue to show a much bigger storm system! At 500 MB you can see why. Our shortwave doesn't get sheared out and you even get a little phasing with the STJ and polar jets too.

The CMC and Euro continue to be in the stronger camp. I like those odds. The CMC has had this exact same look for days now. Doesn't mean it's right though.

In the "old days" we used to call the Trifecta: Euro, CMC, and UKIE It'll be interesting to see what the British model does today.

[tron777]

12Z UKIE is out but on the customer side I can't get to the better maps on Pivotal Weather. Is it showing the bigger solution (CMC / Euro) or the weaker more suppressed look of the GFS? Thanks!

[BookNerdCarp]

Haven't seen that in awhile!

[dce]

12Z UKIE is out but on the customer side I can't get to the better maps on Pivotal Weather. Is it showing the bigger solution (CMC / Euro) or the weaker more suppressed look of the GFS? Thanks!

A little hard for me to decipher, but if I'm not mistaken it is a very good run. Euro and CMC like. I think we have your trifecta.

[tpweather]

Going to be very interesting for this system. Looking forward to the Euro because it is slower than the gfs. What happens is you still have other minor pieces of energy in an air mass like this and they can combine which is really what the Euro has been showing and really the latest CMC to a certain extent. These systems for us tend to be a better shot of getting a decent snow because no precip problems and that is not happening with this system.

[tron777]

12Z UKIE is out but on the customer side I can't get to the better maps on Pivotal Weather. Is it showing the bigger solution (CMC / Euro) or the weaker more suppressed look of the GFS? Thanks!

A little hard for me to decipher, but if I'm not mistaken it is a very good run. Euro and CMC like. I think we have your trifecta.

I'll check on my work laptop when I take my afternoon break in a few. The ICON wasn't bad either. It actually pops a weak low over the S Apps.

[tron777]

Going to be very interesting for this system. Looking forward to the Euro because it is slower than the gfs. What happens is you still have other minor pieces of energy in an air mass like this and they can combine which is really what the Euro has been showing and really the latest CMC to a certain extent. These systems for us tend to be a better shot of getting a decent snow because no precip problems and that is not happening with this system.

The cold air is great with this system for a change! We just need to see how strong the wave actually gets and how much Gulf moisture we can get in here. Once we get that figured out (May not be until Fri or Sat), then we should know how much snow to expect.

[snowbo]

12Z UKIE is out but on the customer side I can't get to the better maps on Pivotal Weather. Is it showing the bigger solution (CMC / Euro) or the weaker more suppressed look of the GFS? Thanks!

[tpweather]

Took us while this season to tap the keg aka(gom) but that is taken care of and hopefully it will be flowing quite a bit over the next several weeks

[tron777]

Haven't seen that in awhile!

Oh wow! That is impressive! I'll have to watch the video this evening.

[tron777]

12Z UKIE is out but on the customer side I can't get to the better maps on Pivotal Weather. Is it showing the bigger solution (CMC / Euro) or the weaker more suppressed look of the GFS? Thanks!

That's very nice! Thank you Bo. That is at 10:1 Ratio too and I expect 15 to as high as 20:1.

[snowbo]

Saw this post on another weather board. I thought it was interesting enough to share...

"I saw something potentially interesting on DT's Facebook page. He said that the GFS always suppresses storms on arctic fronts in the long range. I have no idea if that's actually true (that guy says a lot of random stuff), but it gives me a little hope..."

[tron777]

Saw this post on another weather board. I thought it was interesting enough to share...

"I saw something potentially interesting on DT's Facebook page. He said that the GFS always suppresses storms on arctic fronts in the long range. I have no idea if that's actually true (that guy says a lot of random stuff), but it gives me a little hope..."

There is some truth to that IMO. The GFS right now (Waiting on Euro) is the outlier. GEFS is even more suppressed then the OP lol Right now, the ICON, CMC, and UKIE are all showing a nice system.

[tpweather]

Saw this post on another weather board. I thought it was interesting enough to share...

"I saw something potentially interesting on DT's Facebook page. He said that the GFS always suppresses storms on arctic fronts in the long range. I have no idea if that's actually true (that guy says a lot of random stuff), but it gives me a little hope..."

I believe sometimes that is true but also the gfs loves to speed up systems and this can have a huge correction if true this time.

[tpweather]

So far so good on the Euro through 96 hours.

[tron777]

So far so good on the Euro through 96 hours.

I'm back on the customer side so the maps that I can see aren't the better ones that you can see. Please continue the Euro play by play. From what I can see on the crappy freebie maps though to me looks good! It looks slower then the GFS and the shape of the trough is more sharp as well.

[tpweather]

So far so good on the Euro through 96 hours.

I'm back on the customer side so the maps that I can see aren't the better ones that you can see. Please continue the Euro play by play. From what I can see on the crappy freebie maps though to me looks good! It looks slower then the GFS and the shape of the trough is more sharp as well.

No doubt Les and just waiting for hour 144. The CMC made a big change from 24 hours ago as it was out of whack and probably because of the big storm yesterday. Will post one hour 144 hits

[tron777]

It stinks I can't get to Accuwx Pro from the customer side so I could see QPF.

[tpweather]

Looks like the Euro is a tad east from yesterday but again still to close to call at this point. So minor changes on the gfs and euro today while the cmc has major changes

[tron777]

I'll check the better Euro maps when I get home in a few hours. I'll be able to see QPF then too, unless somebody beats me to it of course.