Southern OV Snowstorm? Jan 15-16

[tpweather]

18Z GFS has really sped up this system. Most of the snow falls on Sunday and it's over for the AM Commute on MLK Day. Personally since I have to work, I'd be totally cool with a faster outcome. The good news is that QPF has increased on this run. For CVG, we get around 0.35" and with those high snow ratios that I've talked about, this would certainly be worth breaking out the shovels! I think a faster solution would help us in the QPF dept honestly because you know when the arctic plunge comes, the airmass will be very cold and dry! I still am very much hopeful for this system IMHO.

Hey Les and I agree with your post. Still believe its too early on this one as the models will change as we have the current powerful storm and one behind it on Friday. No doubt a big arctic plunge and it has a pathway heading south. Storm still love to find the fine line between cold and mild and still believe its not too far away from us next weekend. I agree though the snow ratio could be 15-1 and maybe higher. What snow we get though will be one with ice on the bottom as the snow falls on cold pavement plus we are getting colder during and after the storm. Just hoping the wind on this system is less as shoveling snow and a strong wind is not my favorite passtime

[tron777]

Tim... we are on the same page for sure with this system. Since we're not dealing with a deepening low, the wind should not be as much of a factor with this one, thankfully, as it will be with the previous two. This system IMO is more of an overrunning event as moisture streams up from the Gulf and into the arctic airmass that is over our region. We need the low to have enough of a kick to draw some deeper moisture up our way. This is how I am envisioning the evolution of this system.

[tpweather]

Tim... we are on the same page for sure with this system. Since we're not dealing with a deepening low, the wind should not be as much of a factor with this one, thankfully, as it will be with the previous two. This system IMO is more of an overrunning event as moisture streams up from the Gulf and into the arctic airmass that is over our region. We need the low to have enough of a kick to draw some deeper moisture up our way. This is how I am envisioning the evolution of this system.

I see it the same way Les and a little precip will go further and 15-1 and maybe 20-1 is possible so just getting .10th of an gives us 1.5-2 inches of snow and yes it would all stick

[tron777]

Tim... we are on the same page for sure with this system. Since we're not dealing with a deepening low, the wind should not be as much of a factor with this one, thankfully, as it will be with the previous two. This system IMO is more of an overrunning event as moisture streams up from the Gulf and into the arctic airmass that is over our region. We need the low to have enough of a kick to draw some deeper moisture up our way. This is how I am envisioning the evolution of this system.

I see it the same way Les and a little precip will go further and 15-1 and maybe 20-1 is possible so just getting .10th of an gives us 1.5-2 inches of snow and yes it would all stick

Absolutely Tim! We are lock in step on this one! I actually feel good about it. Not always, but sometimes when you and I 100% agree, good things happen. We shall soon see if this is one of those times. Either that, or we are going down in flames which has happened before too. That's what keeps us coming back for more.

[tpweather]

Tim... we are on the same page for sure with this system. Since we're not dealing with a deepening low, the wind should not be as much of a factor with this one, thankfully, as it will be with the previous two. This system IMO is more of an overrunning event as moisture streams up from the Gulf and into the arctic airmass that is over our region. We need the low to have enough of a kick to draw some deeper moisture up our way. This is how I am envisioning the evolution of this system.

I see it the same way Les and a little precip will go further and 15-1 and maybe 20-1 is possible so just getting .10th of an gives us 1.5-2 inches of snow and yes it would all stick

Absolutely Tim! We are lock in step on this one! I actually feel good about it. Not always, but sometimes when you and I 100% agree, good things happen. We shall soon see if this is one of those times. Either that, or we are going down in flames which has happened before too. That's what keeps us coming back for more.

I agree Les and what makes forecasting hard around here is precip types and that will not be a problem at all with this system so hopefully that improves our chances of a good forecast

[tron777]

Tim... we are on the same page for sure with this system. Since we're not dealing with a deepening low, the wind should not be as much of a factor with this one, thankfully, as it will be with the previous two. This system IMO is more of an overrunning event as moisture streams up from the Gulf and into the arctic airmass that is over our region. We need the low to have enough of a kick to draw some deeper moisture up our way. This is how I am envisioning the evolution of this system.

I see it the same way Les and a little precip will go further and 15-1 and maybe 20-1 is possible so just getting .10th of an gives us 1.5-2 inches of snow and yes it would all stick

Absolutely Tim! We are lock in step on this one! I actually feel good about it. Not always, but sometimes when you and I 100% agree, good things happen. We shall soon see if this is one of those times. Either that, or we are going down in flames which has happened before too. That's what keeps us coming back for more.

I agree Les and what makes forecasting hard around here is precip types and that will not be a problem at all with this system so hopefully that improves our chances of a good forecast

Agreed Tim. The amount of moisture and ratios are about the only things we need to figure out with this one. The cold air will be there for a change, which is always nice.

[Trevor]

We get a little more snow on Saturday and then a nice hit on Sunday. 10” on the ground by Monday morning. Not fantasy range either. That’s promising!

[tron777]

18Z GFS for Sunday only at CVG.

Code: Select all

SUN 12Z 14-JAN  -8.9   -13.5    1023      75      95    0.01     542     524    
SUN 18Z 14-JAN  -8.4   -12.5    1023      86      96    0.06     543     525    
MON 00Z 15-JAN  -8.9   -11.8    1022      94      96    0.14     541     524    
MON 06Z 15-JAN -11.5   -13.1    1021      94      98    0.12     538     522    
MON 12Z 15-JAN -16.2   -16.6    1024      92      52    0.03     534     516 

[mikeyp]

I’ll take that!!

[Closet Meteorologist]

18Z GFS for Sunday only at CVG.

Code: Select all

SUN 12Z 14-JAN  -8.9   -13.5    1023      75      95    0.01     542     524    
SUN 18Z 14-JAN  -8.4   -12.5    1023      86      96    0.06     543     525    
MON 00Z 15-JAN  -8.9   -11.8    1022      94      96    0.14     541     524    
MON 06Z 15-JAN -11.5   -13.1    1021      94      98    0.12     538     522    
MON 12Z 15-JAN -16.2   -16.6    1024      92      52    0.03     534     516 

As much as I want to believe that the euro is almost always right. Please tell me otherwise. (I realize that no model is perfect, but…)

[MattD41]

How much liquid?

[tron777]

0Z GFS bumped back south while the 6Z GFS bumped back north again. We actually want the Fri / Sat strong low to track west of us... as far west as possible. Then. that means that this system would be able to track further north to get us into the better overrunning moisture.

CVG - 6Z GFS:

Code: Select all

MON 00Z 15-JAN  -7.6    -9.3    1024      91      96    0.09     545     527    
MON 06Z 15-JAN  -8.6    -7.9    1021      94      96    0.17     543     527    
MON 12Z 15-JAN -10.8   -11.1    1021      94     100    0.19     539     523    
MON 18Z 15-JAN -13.7   -16.1    1021      79      98    0.01     532     516    
TUE 00Z 16-JAN -19.0   -22.7    1027      86      15    0.03     520     500

[Trevor]

Current graphic for 4"+ I posted on my page. Not ready for a first call, though that may happen tomorrow or early Friday.

[tron777]

Good morning Trev! Your map looks good my man! Once the models lock in on the track for the 12-13th system (again we went it to cut as far west as possible), then we should be able to get a better handle on how much overrunning moisture we can get with the wave / arctic frontal passage. Should be interesting to watch in the coming days.

[Trevor]

Good morning Trev! Your map looks good my man! Once the models lock in on the track for the 12-13th system (again we went it to cut as far west as possible), then we should be able to get a better handle on how much overrunning moisture we can get with the wave / arctic frontal passage. Should be interesting to watch in the coming days.

Thanks! Went with a bias south for now, though a lot of the guidance as of late would suggest a shift northward. Still plenty of time to watch as you said.

[tron777]

Good morning Trev! Your map looks good my man! Once the models lock in on the track for the 12-13th system (again we went it to cut as far west as possible), then we should be able to get a better handle on how much overrunning moisture we can get with the wave / arctic frontal passage. Should be interesting to watch in the coming days.

Thanks! Went with a bias south for now, though a lot of the guidance as of late would suggest a shift northward. Still plenty of time to watch as you said.

Yes Sir... would love to see the 12-13th low take a similar track as La Bomba. That would greatly up our chances at 4"+ for the system we are discussing in this thread. You get a snow pack down and we will 100% go below zero next week for lows and have teens at best for highs.

[tpweather]

Good Morning guys and feel like I need to squeeze myself like a sponge after yesterday. Trev, like the early map and only change is maybe a more southwest to northeast tilt but again we are over 4 days away. Les like you mentioned on temps will depend on how much snow is on the ground. Still believe below zero looks like a done deal but if you get say 4 inches as an example getting to -10 is possible imo, After this system we will see a few clippers and like many systems they like to follow the southern end of a snow pack. Many of these are not seen by the models this far away. I agree Les where we try to warm up towards the end of the month and this looks like a short term warmup before we head back to more fun and games. Depending on how much snow cover is across the country will determine how quickly we warm up and also how warm.Getting a good snow base over a larger area in January is something not very common over the past decade or two so models may have some problems as well

[Trevor]

Good Morning guys and feel like I need to squeeze myself like a sponge after yesterday. Trev, like the early map and only change is maybe a more southwest to northeast tilt but again we are over 4 days away. Les like you mentioned on temps will depend on how much snow is on the ground. Still believe below zero looks like a done deal but if you get say 4 inches as an example getting to -10 is possible imo, After this system we will see a few clippers and like many systems they like to follow the southern end of a snow pack. Many of these are not seen by the models this far away. I agree Les where we try to warm up towards the end of the month and this looks like a short term warmup before we head back to more fun and games. Depending on how much snow cover is across the country will determine how quickly we warm up and also how warm.Getting a good snow base over a larger area in January is something not very common over the past decade or two so models may have some problems as well

Funny you mentioned the tilt. I was debating on that but just went with it because some of the guidance is more west to east and ultimately it’s an early placement call so fine details aren’t as important at this stage. I took a more smoothed out approach.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim and that was a great post from you! If we can get a snowpack down, I could see -5 or lower by Tues morning next week for sure. When we try and warm up, look for an overrunning event which we will be discussing in the main January thread since that is a ways out still but I am seeing signals for that somewhere between Jan 19-22nd. Getting back to the task at hand which is a Sunday - Tuesday ordeal (depends on timing - Jan 14-16th)... we won't have a good handle on it until 24 to 36 hours out due to the upcoming Bomb Part 2 system. Like we've said... each system coming thru is a table setter for the next one so in this instance, the 12-13th storm sets the stage for the overrunning event as the arctic hammer drops in. I personally believe that temps for this particular system could be in that 15 to 20 degree range which would make for very high snow ratios. If we can manage 0.25 to 0.35" of QPF, then it would be a pretty solid event!

[tpweather]

Good morning Tim and that was a great post from you! If we can get a snowpack down, I could see -5 or lower by Tues morning next week for sure. When we try and warm up, look for an overrunning event which we will be discussing in the main January thread since that is a ways out still but I am seeing signals for that somewhere between Jan 19-22nd. Getting back to the task at hand which is a Sunday - Tuesday ordeal (depends on timing - Jan 14-16th)... we won't have a good handle on it until 24 to 36 hours out due to the upcoming Bomb Part 2 system. Like we've said... each system coming thru is a table setter for the next one so in this instance, the 12-13th storm sets the stage for the overrunning event as the arctic hammer drops in. I personally believe that temps for this particular system could be in that 15 to 20 degree range which would make for very high snow ratios. If we can manage 0.25 to 0.35" of QPF, then it would be a pretty solid event!

Thanks Les and we are on the same page which is always a good sign. Having snow fall at 15-20 degrees is much different than say 28-32 degrees. The ground is colder and every flake sticks and yes forms more ice under the snow and again happening in mid-January the snow is not going anywhere and that is why I thought this pattern is one where snow is on the ground 2-3 weeks compared to 2-3 days. If we get the snow and we get a night or two of clear sky and light wind -10 looks very good and of course some outlying areas could be well into the -10's.

[Trevor]

Rundown that I posted on my page...

[tron777]

I think we've got the trifecta. Trev, Tim, and myself seem to be on the same page!

[Trevor]

I think we've got the trifecta. Trev, Tim, and myself seem to be on the same page!

Yes sir! I will probably have a first call out tomorrow. Given that we are not dealing with p-type issues which is usually the case, this is somewhat of an easier forecast. We will get snow and we will get accumulation (it has to stick...it'll be that cold , it's just a matter of where the heaviest will fall. A lot of that has to do with the track of Bomb 2 as we have discussed.

I want to see just a couple more main model runs before starting to put out preliminary numbers.

[tron777]

I think we've got the trifecta. Trev, Tim, and myself seem to be on the same page!

Yes sir! I will probably have a first call out tomorrow. Given that we are not dealing with p-type issues which is usually the case, this is somewhat of an easier forecast. We will get snow and we will get accumulation (it has to stick...it'll be that cold , it's just a matter of where the heaviest will fall. A lot of that has to do with the track of Bomb 2 as we have discussed.

I want to see just a couple more main model runs before starting to put out preliminary numbers.

No doubt Trev! I know we try and get numbers out early, but in this case, I would wait until the last possible moment.

[tron777]

I'm expecting the 12Z GFS to be a better run vs 6Z. 1053 MB high at 6Z, now 1049 MB at 12Z. This is for Hour 96 when doing a comparison. That should allow for higher heights and a more northward track and better QPF for this system.