La Bomba 2.0: Jan 12-13, 2024

[tpweather]

Good evening Tim! Glad to see your internet has returned so you can post! 18Z GE$FS agrees with the OP run very nicely in terms of track with this system. Again... I am waiting to see which model camp caves to the other.

Les this is such an active pattern and expect more changes. Having 2 storms this strong so close together is rare in this part of the world. Sure it has happened but not often.

[tron777]

Good evening Tim! Glad to see your internet has returned so you can post! 18Z GE$FS agrees with the OP run very nicely in terms of track with this system. Again... I am waiting to see which model camp caves to the other.

Les this is such an active pattern and expect more changes. Having 2 storms this strong so close together is rare in this part of the world. Sure it has happened but not often.

Not that often at all. The overall pattern has been modeled well in advance. We knew this pattern was coming. The results maybe not modeled quite as well in advance but the overall pattern certainly was. Back to back wind / rain makers ending as a bit of snow... then potentially more snow then we turn bitterly cold. As we moderate watch for more potential action as we are talking about in the main January thread. This will be a January to remember for active weather as well as temps for quite sometime! Even if we don't see a double digit snowfall or a big blizzard... it's still a pretty incredible stretch of weather for us!

[MVWxObserver]

Good evening Tim! Glad to see your internet has returned so you can post! 18Z GE$FS agrees with the OP run very nicely in terms of track with this system. Again... I am waiting to see which model camp caves to the other.

Les this is such an active pattern and expect more changes. Having 2 storms this strong so close together is rare in this part of the world. Sure it has happened but not often.

Not that often at all. The overall pattern has been modeled well in advance. We knew this pattern was coming. The results maybe not modeled quite as well in advance but the overall pattern certainly was. Back to back wind / rain makers ending as a bit of snow... then potentially more snow then we turn bitterly cold. As we moderate watch for more potential action as we are talking about in the main January thread. This will be a January to remember for active weather as well as temps for quite sometime! Even if we don't see a double digit snowfall or a big blizzard... it's still a pretty incredible stretch of weather for us!

The pattern could make for quite an interesting Iowa Caucus e.g., too, on MLK Day.

During tonight's Townhall with Gov Ron DeSantis, he said it was a first time treat for their kids to see snow!

Casey DeSantis is a native from Toledo, OH so she's of course seen it before and Gov Ron's mother is from Ohio, too, so same there.

[tron777]

The only change I am making to my forecast for this storm, is to go the way of the Euro. The GFS has caved and now tracks the low to our West over Indiana. Still, heavy rains are returning on Fri and the PM commute will be impacted with strong winds and rain. Then we change to snow on the backside with up to 1" possible on Sat. We'll see how I do with this one. For rainfall amounts, I still believe an inch or so looks good.

[Trevor]

The only change I am making to my forecast for this storm, is to go the way of the Euro. The GFS has caved and now tracks the low to our West over Indiana. Still, heavy rains are returning on Fri and the PM commute will be impacted with strong winds and rain. Then we change to snow on the backside with up to 1" possible on Sat. We'll see how I do with this one. For rainfall amounts, I still believe an inch or so looks good.

Euro cut way down on QPF amounts in the last couple of runs.

[Trevor]

Canadian is the opposite with much more.

[tron777]

With a low this strong tracking west of our area, it doesn't make sense to me to cut back on the QPF that we get ahead of the front. I see no reason to change a thing other then the low track which I already mentioned this morning.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and concerning precip totals and this a tough call because having two big storms 3 days apart getting another the second one to produce similar amounts is not easy. I like the call of around 1 inch myself and again today could be a day of changes for the models since the 1st storm is heading into Canada.

[Trevor]

With a low this strong tracking west of our area, it doesn't make sense to me to cut back on the QPF that we get ahead of the front. I see no reason to change a thing other then the low track which I already mentioned this morning.

Yeah looks like we have the same rainfall forecast, though I'm going to watch future trends and see if the Euro is sniffing something out.

[Trevor]

Here are the latest runs of the big three models. Canadian is in its own camp with the heavier rains overtop the tri-state.

[tron777]

Tim / Trev... I don't know what the Euro is doing. It has a similar track and everything like most models but it has very little wrap around precip also. Only thing I can think of would be moisture transport from the Gulf getting disrupted if there is convection going on down over the Dixie States. But none of the other models are doing that so I'm going to stick with the 1" rainfall call and up to 1" backside snowfall call at this point.

[Trevor]

Tim / Trev... I don't know what the Euro is doing. It has a similar track and everything like most models but it has very little wrap around precip also. Only thing I can think of would be moisture transport from the Gulf getting disrupted if there is convection going on down over the Dixie States. But none of the other models are doing that so I'm going to stick with the 1" rainfall call and up to 1" backside snowfall call at this point.

GFS is very similar to the Euro so it’s definitely something to watch.

[tron777]

Tim / Trev... I don't know what the Euro is doing. It has a similar track and everything like most models but it has very little wrap around precip also. Only thing I can think of would be moisture transport from the Gulf getting disrupted if there is convection going on down over the Dixie States. But none of the other models are doing that so I'm going to stick with the 1" rainfall call and up to 1" backside snowfall call at this point.

GFS is very similar to the Euro so it’s definitely something to watch.

Agreed. We can adjust if need be but for now I'm letting it roll until the 12Z data comes in.

[tpweather]

Hey Les/Trev. The GOM just exploded with this system and trying to throw the same amount of moisture into another storm 3 days later is not easy. Plus you need the correct flow to happen in a short period. I will most likely go lower once we see new info today. Matter of fact would love to see less moisture transported in this system and hopefully save some for the next system.

[tron777]

Hey Les/Trev. The GOM just exploded with this system and trying to throw the same amount of moisture into another storm 3 days later is not easy. Plus you need the correct flow to happen in a short period. I will most likely go lower once we see new info today. Matter of fact would love to see less moisture transported in this system and hopefully save some for the next system.

Normally I would agree with that Tim, but since this next low is modeled to be even stronger then the previous one, assuming this occurs, I would think that moisture transport should be a problem. If the system does not end up being that strong then I would totally understand seeing less QPF. I could certainly be wrong, but wanted to explain my thought process.

[tpweather]

Hey Les/Trev. The GOM just exploded with this system and trying to throw the same amount of moisture into another storm 3 days later is not easy. Plus you need the correct flow to happen in a short period. I will most likely go lower once we see new info today. Matter of fact would love to see less moisture transported in this system and hopefully save some for the next system.

Normally I would agree with that Tim, but since this next low is modeled to be even stronger then the previous one, assuming this occurs, I would think that moisture transport should be a problem. If the system does not end up being that strong then I would totally understand seeing less QPF. I could certainly be wrong, but wanted to explain my thought process.

Hey Les and understand your thought process on this as well. Going to be moisture transport and that is a given but sometimes a stronger low pressure does not always add up to more precip. This system may move a tad quicker than the last one as well so the amount of time we have precip is not as long. These two systems back to back is not common so will be interesting to see the outcome.

[tron777]

Hey Les/Trev. The GOM just exploded with this system and trying to throw the same amount of moisture into another storm 3 days later is not easy. Plus you need the correct flow to happen in a short period. I will most likely go lower once we see new info today. Matter of fact would love to see less moisture transported in this system and hopefully save some for the next system.

Normally I would agree with that Tim, but since this next low is modeled to be even stronger then the previous one, assuming this occurs, I would think that moisture transport should be a problem. If the system does not end up being that strong then I would totally understand seeing less QPF. I could certainly be wrong, but wanted to explain my thought process.

Hey Les and understand your thought process on this as well. Going to be moisture transport and that is a given but sometimes a stronger low pressure does not always add up to more precip. This system may move a tad quicker than the last one as well so the amount of time we have precip is not as long. These two systems back to back is not common so will be interesting to see the outcome.

You're right Tim... it is not that common at all. This is definitely an anomalous pattern and we know from past results, that models do not handle extreme patterns very well. To be honest, all of our thoughts have a 50 / 50 chance of needing to be adjusted in some form or another. We all bring wonderful thoughts to the table and we'll just have to wait and see how it pans out. That's really about all we can do. Make our best educated guess and see what happens.

[tron777]

Anybody got a QPF map from the 12Z NAM? The track looks similar to La Bomba and the model deepens the low to 968 MB over Lake Huron.

EDIT: Never mind. I was able to locate something. Looks like the 1" plus totals are along the track of the low. We get 0.75" over Cincy and our Western counties. Looks like 0.50" for our Eastern counties.

[tpweather]

Anybody got a QPF map from the 12Z NAM? The track looks similar to La Bomba and the model deepens the low to 968 MB over Lake Huron.

EDIT: Never mind. I was able to locate something. Looks like the 1" plus totals are along the track of the low. We get 0.75" over Cincy and our Western counties. Looks like 0.50" for our Eastern counties.

Seems correct Les. Tell you the truth I am glad its heading further west because the further east would mean the arctic air behind this front would move in quicker and further south and east and that may have killed us snow wise for the next system

[Trevor]

Anybody got a QPF map from the 12Z NAM? The track looks similar to La Bomba and the model deepens the low to 968 MB over Lake Huron.

EDIT: Never mind. I was able to locate something. Looks like the 1" plus totals are along the track of the low. We get 0.75" over Cincy and our Western counties. Looks like 0.50" for our Eastern counties.

Seems correct Les. Tell you the truth I am glad its heading further west because the further east would mean the arctic air behind this front would move in quicker and further south and east and that may have killed us snow wise for the next system

[fyrfyter]

Anybody got a QPF map from the 12Z NAM? The track looks similar to La Bomba and the model deepens the low to 968 MB over Lake Huron.

EDIT: Never mind. I was able to locate something. Looks like the 1" plus totals are along the track of the low. We get 0.75" over Cincy and our Western counties. Looks like 0.50" for our Eastern counties.

Here:

IMG_0788.jpeg

[Trevor]

Not only that, Tim, but a further west track increases our chance to mix down some wicked winds. The NAM went crazy with gusts...

In my forecast update today on my page (I will post here soon) I mentioned gusts exceeding 50mph possible. HWW may be needed.

[Trevor]

Planning Forecast Update
[Wed 1/10/24 9:30am]

Well it doesn't get much busier than this on a forecast graphic! Let's break it down.

-Thursday is the PICK DAY with only a few clouds and high temperatures a few degrees above normal. ENJOY. IT.

-Storm #2 moves in on Friday with periods of heavy rain likely totaling up to 0.75-1.00" in most areas. Winds Friday afternoon through Saturday morning will be CRANKING! Gusts exceeding 50mph are a possibility. I'll be keeping a close eye on that. The rain switches to snow showers and flurries Friday night into Saturday. Models disagree on how much moisture will be left around, but some light accumulations are possible.

-An INSTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR begins on Sunday. With that also comes Storm #3 and an increasing risk for accumulating snow across the tri-state later Sunday through Monday. It's too early to talk amounts, but I may have a first call map posted tomorrow. Forecast confidence on this storm is increasing. I have more on this snow chance in the post right before this so check that out if you haven't already.

-BITTER, FRIGID air is with us Sunday through at least Thursday. Wind chill values will dip to dangerous levels at times, and we will likely have to be alert and take necessary precautions for some frozen pipe issues, especially if your home is susceptible.

[tpweather]

Great forecast Trev. I do believe the winds could be worse than yesterday. My guess is you may lower the overnight lows next week if and of course if we get a decent snow Sunday/Monday. Busy is the key word over the next 1-2 weeks and hopefully in February as well.

[tron777]

Anybody got a QPF map from the 12Z NAM? The track looks similar to La Bomba and the model deepens the low to 968 MB over Lake Huron.

EDIT: Never mind. I was able to locate something. Looks like the 1" plus totals are along the track of the low. We get 0.75" over Cincy and our Western counties. Looks like 0.50" for our Eastern counties.

Seems correct Les. Tell you the truth I am glad its heading further west because the further east would mean the arctic air behind this front would move in quicker and further south and east and that may have killed us snow wise for the next system

Agreed. I said the same thing yesterday.