1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

[tron777]

0Z NAM is startling to come in... let's see what we got here!

[tpweather]

Back on again and the nam like Les mentioned is running

[tron777]

0Z NAM QPF thru 1pm Sat:

CVG - 0.33"
HAO - 0.16"
MGY - 0.10"
DAY - 0.07"
CMH - 0.15"

FGX - 0.85" - Mainly rain

[tron777]

Ok folks... due to work, I've been up since about 3:30am so I need some sleep so I don't sleep thru the snow in the morning. I will be back in the morning with some coffee and hopefully enjoying some nice big flakes falling! Please keep up the talk on this system and I'll catch up.

[tpweather]

Finally the CVG office put out a special weather statement with 1 inch and upwards of 2 inches in isolated spots. Interesting to see if the models are handling this system correctly.

[Trevor]

Finally the CVG office put out a special weather statement with 1 inch and upwards of 2 inches in isolated spots. Interesting to see if the models are handling this system correctly.

The advisories will be expanded later in typical ILN fashion.

Forecast looks solid. 2-5” for Cincinnati. I’m working tonight so I will pop in as much as possible.

[mainevilleweather]

Sitting at 32 here with a 26 dp.

[Trevor]

Sitting at 32 here with a 26 dp.

Nice! You’re already nearly saturated with that DP. I doubt we see much virga except for a little bit right at the beginning. QPF amounts lost will be negligible.

[Trevor]

Some of those forecasts down in central Ky are not going to verify. Warm air will win out down there. We are in a great spot in the Cincy area!

[mainevilleweather]

GFS seems to be tracking next weekends storm well north. Looks like we get thunderstorms... Hope it trends back south, we are too warm.

[mikeyp]

Anyone is northern Kentucky seeing snow? Dry ridge looks to be getting a nice band

[Trevor]

Looks like sleet per PING reports.

[Trevor]

Sleet/flake mix here in Blue Ash.

[Mjr]

Nothing yet here in Amelia

[Sargent51]

Freezing rain here in Maineville/Morrow area. Deck has a nice glaze all over it. This will be a bust for most on snowfall.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and sitting at 33 and light rain. The sneaky little warm layer got us again. I can see where some frz/rain because the temps yesterday were slightly colder than models showed. If the precip can just pick up a tad we can switch to snow for a period of time but higher totals are not happening.

[Trevor]

Per mesoanalysis we should be snow right now. We are right on the line but unless I’m missing something we are below freezing aloft. Must be a sneaky warm layer not showing up. A sounding would be helpful right now.

[tpweather]

Per mesoanalysis we should be snow right now. We are right on the line but unless I’m missing something we are below freezing aloft. Must be a sneaky warm layer not showing up. A sounding would be helpful right now.

Trevor that is where models have a problem and you try to forecast around that but its such a fine line especially when temps are marginal and only a set amount of time for an event

[Trevor]

It’s half/half rain and snow here.

[Trevor]

Per mesoanalysis we should be snow right now. We are right on the line but unless I’m missing something we are below freezing aloft. Must be a sneaky warm layer not showing up. A sounding would be helpful right now.

Trevor that is where models have a problem and you try to forecast around that but its such a fine line especially when temps are marginal and only a set amount of time for an event

Yeah man always a pain. I figured the trouble areas would be down in KY which is why I bumped everything northward.

[Trevor]

It’s trying to change over here right now. Struggling but it’s trying lol

[tpweather]

I switched my forecast and went 1-3. Reasoning was I thought we would see between 3 and maybe 6 hours of snow falling. Only about 5 hours left and hopefully can get 3 hours of snow to reach the lower end. My bust was for folks south and that has happened but I thought the overachiever was east of here and ended up towards Indy.

[Trevor]

I switched my forecast and went 1-3. Reasoning was I thought we would see between 3 and maybe 6 hours of snow falling. Only about 5 hours left and hopefully can get 3 hours of snow to reach the lower end. My bust was for folks south and that has happened but I thought the overachiever was east of here and ended up towards Indy.

The lower end of ranges can still verify we just need it to switch soon. Like you said about five hours of precip left.

[mikeyp]

I can finally report all snow falling here in white oak

[Trevor]

Starting to see more snow reports showing up on PING.