tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:51 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:47 pm
tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:11 pm
kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:45 pm
Looks like ILN issued a WWA for southeast counties only.
I saw that Leslie. My guess they are trying to decide how far west to throw the advisory.
Just getting caught up here. Took down the outside Christmas Lights to keep everything dry.
I am a bit perplexed by this. I agree with the advisory but I thought one would have been issued for the Cincy Metro also. Oh well... what do I know.
18Z NAM has 0.35" of QPF at CVG and the 18Z GFS is coming in with 0.40"
Les I believe they are trying to figure out how far west to push the advisory. I could be wrong but almost 5pm and have not come out with the afternoon forecast
I've been waiting for the AFD also. It was just issued here we go....
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will continue to drift eastwards towards the
Atlantic coast through today and tonight. This will be replaced
by a low pressure system in the southeastern CONUS, which will
be our primary weather maker.
Cirrus clouds continue to overspread the region, with mid level
clouds building in later this evening as the lower troposphere
begins to saturate. Onset timing of pcpn is generally on track
from previous forecasts: Frozen precip (in the form of snow) is
expected to move into the Tristate region around 2-4AM. A
larger complex of precip will gradually begin to move into our
northern KY counties around this timeframe. While it`s possible
that some of these hydrometeors may initially reach the surface
in liquid form (or perhaps even some ice pellets mixed in), the
precip will fall through a layer of drier air near the surface,
helping to evaporatively cool the near-surface air. As precip
rates increase, this evaporative cooling will help cool the
thermal profiles in the atmosphere and create a more favorable
environment for snow to be the primary p-type. Given the
potential for heavier snowfall rates, and the time of day when
pavement/ground temperatures will be near their coldest, there
is the potential for snow to rapidly accumulate during the early
morning hours on Saturday. Thus, we have issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for locations where confidence is highest
amongst hi-res model guidance for higher snowfall totals.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The highest intensity of snowfall is expected to continue
through the mid-to-late morning hours on Saturday. Our northern
KY counties, along with portions of southern OH, have the
greatest potential of accumulations reaching (or perhaps even
exceeding) 2 inches. Bufkit soundings do show negative omega
aligning with a saturated DGZ, along with a fairly decent
isothermal layer aligning itself just below 0 degrees C, which
is where some higher reflectivity is being initialized in CAMs.
This data suggests the potential for large, wet snowflakes
(likely a snow- to-liquid ration closer to 8:1 or 9:1) to fall
in these locations. Given that surface flow will remain out of
the east- northeast, there will not be any WAA to quickly
changeover the p-type being observed at the surface. Thus,
locations will observe a more prolonged period of snowfall with
this system. This has lead to an area-wide increase in overall
snow amounts. Have a larger portion of our CWA now receiving
1-2", with north- central KY and the lower Scioto Valley
trending closer to 2", with locally higher amounts certainly
possible. As you progress further north towards I-70, snow
amounts are expected to decrease, likely below an inch.
By the early afternoon, the more impactful snowfall will begin
to shift eastward. Currently have the Advisory expiring at 1PM
given this trend, but be mindful that additional light snowfall
will continue through the rest of the day, particularly north
of the OH River. Saturday night, a weak shortwave will traverse
the area, which could generate some additional snowfall across
our CWA. Light accumulations are possible from this feature, but
overall impacts should be minimal.
