1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

[tpweather]

These forecasted snowfall maps by the NWS seem to always be wrong. Most of the time, very wrong. This map has the heaviest accumulation to the north of and along I-70. Very little in northern Kentucky. No model is showing this. What is the thought process? Are these maps from ILN or do they originate on a national scale?

I have no ideal Doug. Looks like they believe the system on Saturday is mainly rain and then they expect folks further north to get some snow on Sunday. I agree about the system on Sunday but disagree about Saturday.

I don't know the answer either but my guess would be computer generated graphics with very little human analysis.

So Les you are telling me this is a map from The Weather Channel lol

[MVWxObserver]

My sister, niece, and sister's mother-in-law in Mt Airy, NC are under this warning.

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
432 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2024

NCZ003-VAZ016-052000-
/O.UPG.KRNK.WS.A.0001.240106T0600Z-240106T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KRNK.WS.W.0001.240106T0600Z-240106T1800Z/
Surry-Carroll-
Including the cities of Dobson and Galax
432 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain expected. Total snow and sleet accumulation
of up to one inch and ice accumulation of one tenth to two
tenths of an inch.

* IMPACTS...Untreated roads and sidewalks will become slick
and hazardous. Bridges and overpasses will be most susceptible
to ice. Ice accumulations on trees and power lines may result
in downed tree limbs and scattered power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Plan on hazardous travel conditions. Reduce speed and allow extra
time to reach your destination. Postpone travel if possible.

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

[tron777]

6Z Euro really came in juiced up. 0.34" for CVG

[tron777]

These forecasted snowfall maps by the NWS seem to always be wrong. Most of the time, very wrong. This map has the heaviest accumulation to the north of and along I-70. Very little in northern Kentucky. No model is showing this. What is the thought process? Are these maps from ILN or do they originate on a national scale?

I have no ideal Doug. Looks like they believe the system on Saturday is mainly rain and then they expect folks further north to get some snow on Sunday. I agree about the system on Sunday but disagree about Saturday.

I don't know the answer either but my guess would be computer generated graphics with very little human analysis.

So Les you are telling me this is a map from The Weather Channel lol

Good one Tim!

[tron777]

12Z HRRR showing a solid 2" for most with up to 4" in the extreme SE. I'd say from around 4am until about 12pm is prime time!

[tron777]

9Z SREF is a tough wetter at CVG. 0.48" for QPF on the mean but only a 1" mean on snowfall. Again, as I said earlier, I don't think this model is taking dynamic cooling processes into account correctly. Temp spread is from 30-37 degrees for a mean of 34 at 7am tomorrow morning. This will of course make a huge difference in how much your particular location gets. 3 hourly QPF mean is about 0.20" for CVG so that tells me we should be seeing an inch per hour snowfall rates wherever the heaviest banding occurs. Anyone else have any thoughts on these concepts?

[tron777]

12Z NAM is coming in and it really likes the Cincy Metro at Hour 24 (7am tomorrow morning). I love seeing that primary low into extreme NE TN.

[tron777]

If you look at the 700 MB vorticity and 850 MB vorticity from the NAM, you want to be just NW of where those features track. That is exactly where we are located. Very nice run here! It looks like the primary low works on up into S. WV then finally gives way to the EC Low. Still looking like a 4am or so until 12pm window for the main show.

[tron777]

Anyone got a QPF total from the 12Z NAM? I can't access Accuwx Pro from the customer side. Thanks! Based on what I am seeing, we should be getting NAM'ed!

[tron777]

Looks like the 12KM NAM has around a 1/2" for CVG liquid. At 10:1 that would be a solid 5". We know ratios will be much lower so 3" would be a good call using this model at face value. 4" if you are lucky I suppose.

[tron777]

Based on current radar and satellite pics, I think the stronger / more juicy solutions we are seeing are going to be correct. We'll see what the rest of the data shows today, but as of now, I'm pretty excited about what I am seeing. Trev... where are you? You've been all over these higher amounts and I am seeing a lot of data now to support it.

[Trevor]

Based on current radar and satellite pics, I think the stronger / more juicy solutions we are seeing are going to be correct. We'll see what the rest of the data shows today, but as of now, I'm pretty excited about what I am seeing. Trev... where are you? You've been all over these higher amounts and I am seeing a lot of data now to support it.

Looking over 12z then will have a new map.

[CINCINNATI01]

Hopefully we can get them Temps to go down

[tron777]

Based on current radar and satellite pics, I think the stronger / more juicy solutions we are seeing are going to be correct. We'll see what the rest of the data shows today, but as of now, I'm pretty excited about what I am seeing. Trev... where are you? You've been all over these higher amounts and I am seeing a lot of data now to support it.

Looking over 12z then will have a new map.

Sounds good! I like that 2-4" range now for the Metro / NKY. Just my 2 cents. We'll see what the RGEM and GooFuS show shortly.

[young pup]

Anyone got a QPF total from the 12Z NAM? I can't access Accuwx Pro from the customer side. Thanks! Based on what I am seeing, we should be getting NAM'ed!

Two snow maps. One for Saturday and the other is the total with Sunday's snow.

nam 12z wave1.png

nam 12z wave 2.png

[tron777]

Thanks JP! I appreciate it. So taking the lower ratios into account 2-4" looks good!

[CINCINNATI01]

Should we expect a winter storm warning?

[young pup]

Thanks JP! I appreciate it. So taking the lower ratios into account 2-4" looks good!

You are Welcome. Sorry about all the maps. I thought I only put two in. lol

[dce]

Should we expect a winter storm warning?

I'm guessing Winter Weather Advisory. Temps will be marginal. ILN is historically reluctant to go with a warning. Most of the time they start out with an Advisory and upgrade to a warning if necessary. I think an Advisory to start out fits this storm perfectly.

[dce]

Anyone got a QPF total from the 12Z NAM? I can't access Accuwx Pro from the customer side. Thanks! Based on what I am seeing, we should be getting NAM'ed!

Two snow maps. One for Saturday and the other is the total with Sunday's snow. nam 12z wave1.pngnam 12z wave 2.png

Personally, for the I-70 crew to score as well, I'm hoping for the 3k NAM.

[young pup]

The rgem is totaly different. Total snow for Sat/Sun.

rdps 12z wave 2.png

[young pup]

Anyone got a QPF total from the 12Z NAM? I can't access Accuwx Pro from the customer side. Thanks! Based on what I am seeing, we should be getting NAM'ed!

Two snow maps. One for Saturday and the other is the total with Sunday's snow. nam 12z wave1.pngnam 12z wave 2.png

Personally, for the I-70 crew to score as well, I'm hoping for the 3k NAM.

I would take it.

[tron777]

Should we expect a winter storm warning?

I'm guessing Winter Weather Advisory. Temps will be marginal. ILN is historically reluctant to go with a warning. Most of the time they start out with an Advisory and upgrade to a warning if necessary. I think an Advisory to start out fits this storm perfectly.

I agree with this. I think an advisory will cover it. Speaking of temps... I am glad that you brought that up, Cincinnati. I had 19 this morning and CVG had 22. We are only at 27 as of 10am at CVG and with increasing clouds... we will probably not even make it to 40 today so that may help us out a bit in terms of ground temps.

I am on my lunch hour so I was able to look at Accuwx Pro for the 12Z NAM run. 0.54" of QPF at CVG so we did get NAM'ed as I thought.

HAO - 0.44"
MGY - 0.33"
DAY - 0.22"
CMH - 0.23"

FGX for Matt - A whopping 0.75" but a lot of that is going to be rain unfortunately. This is using the NAM. You are in a good spot on some of the other models though.

[Trevor]

Based on current radar and satellite pics, I think the stronger / more juicy solutions we are seeing are going to be correct. We'll see what the rest of the data shows today, but as of now, I'm pretty excited about what I am seeing. Trev... where are you? You've been all over these higher amounts and I am seeing a lot of data now to support it.

Looking over 12z then will have a new map.

Sounds good! I like that 2-4" range now for the Metro / NKY. Just my 2 cents. We'll see what the RGEM and GooFuS show shortly.

Yup! I was leaning toward 2-4 after 06z and 12z is confirming the juicer trend.

[tron777]

12Z RGEM also has the Tri-state / Cincy Metro in the best snowfall. Couple of inches easy on this run. 0.20-0.30" of QPF from N to S across the area.