December 2023 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

Congrats Bengals as they beat the Vikings 27-24 in OT!

Prayers with nose tackle DJ Reader (knee injury) and Ja'Marr Chase (shoulder injury).

Currently 50 here in G'ville.

[Trevor]

The location of the heavier area of rain has shifted which leaves Cincinnati on the lighter side in much of today’s guidance. Something to watch.

[tpweather]

The location of the heavier area of rain has shifted which leaves Cincinnati on the lighter side in much of today’s guidance. Something to watch.

I agree Trev and this has always been my problem. I felt no confidence in the models and that is why I had such a wide spread. I do though believe the snow showers on Monday are still in play.

[Closet Meteorologist]

My wife swears she just saw lightning in Maineville. Possible?

[tpweather]

My wife swears she just saw lightning in Maineville. Possible?

Very possible as we have 2 pieces of energy getting together this evening.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 55 and both DAY / CMH 56 today.

[MVWxObserver]

Congrats Bengals, Colts, and Lions!

Currently 46 here in G'ville and progged to hold steady around 45 on Sun morning.

[Trevor]

The location of the heavier area of rain has shifted which leaves Cincinnati on the lighter side in much of today’s guidance. Something to watch.

I agree Trev and this has always been my problem. I felt no confidence in the models and that is why I had such a wide spread. I do though believe the snow showers on Monday are still in play.

We should at least hit a half inch which should verify everyone’s forecast.

[Trevor]

ILN snowfall forecast is fairly similar to mine. I’ll have an update in the morning after work and I get more time to look over things.

[Trevor]

Per radar estimates, my 0.75-1.00 call looks to have worked out pretty well for the Cincinnati area. 0.50-1.00 would have been a better call but I’ll take it! Western Ham Co was def the rainfall winner.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and some more needed rain for everyone locally. Today will be dreary December day and the rain will end this morning. Snow showers still look likely on Monday. During the day especially if there are some around mid-day could be snow/rain shower and even if all snow don't look for many problems. After the 3pm hour is when we need to watch for snow showers and some could be moderate to heavy for a short period which can lead to some slick roads and bad visibility for a short period.

Tuesday we will be cold but a milder period for the remainder of the week and then we watch for a few systems that could happen over the Christmas weekend. At the moment nothing heavy but also rain looks like the precip type. Heading towards the New Year is when we start to see some interesting weather so stay tune as models will change quite a bit this week as we get closer.

[Trevor]

Good Morning and some more needed rain for everyone locally. Today will be dreary December day and the rain will end this morning. Snow showers still look likely on Monday. During the day especially if there are some around mid-day could be snow/rain shower and even if all snow don't look for many problems. After the 3pm hour is when we need to watch for snow showers and some could be moderate to heavy for a short period which can lead to some slick roads and bad visibility for a short period.

Tuesday we will be cold but a milder period for the remainder of the week and then we watch for a few systems that could happen over the Christmas weekend. At the moment nothing heavy but also rain looks like the precip type. Heading towards the New Year is when we start to see some interesting weather so stay tune as models will change quite a bit this week as we get closer.

I share your concerns for tomorrow. Like you said the real problem time will be later in the day and especially the evening and early overnight. I still like 0.5-1.5” for the Cincinnati area. I really won’t need to tweak my map all that much.

I am putting more weight on the Canadian for this one as it typically does a lot better with systems coming out of Canada.

I expect some winter weather advisories and/or snow squall warnings to be issued for the area tomorrow.

[tron777]

Good morning all! My Lions certainly took care of business. Weather wise, I'm glad we got a nice soaking rain. I am also concerned for the ride home tomorrow. Hope there are aren't too many wrecks! Then starting Wed we warm up and the 50s return for Christmas. I hope we can track some more interesting weather for the week between Christmas and New Year's. I'm on vacation then so I'll have more time to post!

[MVWxObserver]

Good morning all! My Lions certainly took care of business. Weather wise, I'm glad we got a nice soaking rain. I am also concerned for the ride home tomorrow. Hope there are aren't too many wrecks! Then starting Wed we warm up and the 50s return for Christmas. I hope we can track some more interesting weather for the week between Christmas and New Year's. I'm on vacation then so I'll have more time to post!

Both your Lions and Raiders torpedoed their opponents!!

Currently 46 here in G'ville and progged for around 48 today.

[tron777]

Per radar, one more batch of light showers to go thru.

[tpweather]

Les I thought the rainfall predictions were not easy and folks had different opinions and ended up being correct from everyone. Problem is you don't want to give such a wide range that it looks bad if you say 1-3 inches of rain but 1-3 inches of snow not so much. Look forward to see you post more between Christmas and New Years. I will be in Wisconsin from the 26th until the 30th so my posting will most likely be limited.

[Bgoney]

Totals for rain event around the region as of 11am ,

here .30” CVG- .57” Kday- .29” ILN- .28” kcmh- .60”

[Trevor]

Totals for rain event around the region as of 11am ,

here .30” CVG- .57” Kday- .29” ILN- .28” kcmh- .60”

Classic case of the airports not receiving the heavier rains. The lightest shade is 0.60", so plenty of that to go around and the darker greens are near an inch. The models did a good job up until yesterday of having an enhanced band over the tri-state. Pretty decent verification.

Of course radar estimates are estimates. But with the radar upgrades over recent years they have gotten pretty accurate. Plus there was no strong convection (and hail cores) to contaminate the data. Overall a solid forecast from everyone, but the heavier modeled totals did in fact pan out for some areas in the tri-state. Such is the nature of the game with precipitation banding.

[Trevor]

Lightning tomorrow, anyone? High-res models are picking up on it. Actually is fairly typical to have some of that going on during "peak heating" under a strong ULL.

[Bgoney]

Totals for rain event around the region as of 11am ,

here .30” CVG- .57” Kday- .29” ILN- .28” kcmh- .60”

Classic case of the airports not receiving the heavier rains. The lightest shade is 0.60", so plenty of that to go around and the darker greens are near an inch. The models did a good job up until yesterday of having an enhanced band over the tri-state. Pretty decent verification.

Of course radar estimates are estimates. But with the radar upgrades over recent years they have gotten pretty accurate. Plus there was no strong convection (and hail cores) to contaminate the data. Overall a solid forecast from everyone, but the heavier modeled totals did in fact pan out for some areas in the tri-state. Such is the nature of the game with precipitation banding.

I usually use the OHRFC observational map . I assume they have gauges covering the basin or a mix of observational and estimate's. They haven’t updated their maps yet to cover the whole event

[Trevor]

Totals for rain event around the region as of 11am ,

here .30” CVG- .57” Kday- .29” ILN- .28” kcmh- .60”

Classic case of the airports not receiving the heavier rains. The lightest shade is 0.60", so plenty of that to go around and the darker greens are near an inch. The models did a good job up until yesterday of having an enhanced band over the tri-state. Pretty decent verification.

Of course radar estimates are estimates. But with the radar upgrades over recent years they have gotten pretty accurate. Plus there was no strong convection (and hail cores) to contaminate the data. Overall a solid forecast from everyone, but the heavier modeled totals did in fact pan out for some areas in the tri-state. Such is the nature of the game with precipitation banding.

I usually use the OHRFC observational map . I assume they have gauges covering the basin and aren’t estimates.

Looks pretty close to that radar estimate irt that heavier band. Amounts through 7am.

[Trevor]

Like I said all-in-all, a good forecast from everyone. For the first time in a while, some of the modeled heavier rainfall amounts actually verified lol! Like I said earlier if I could go back I would have went with 0.50-1.00 instead of 0.75-1.00 to account for the lower spots. But good job everyone. Now onto the snow.

[tron777]

Lightning tomorrow, anyone? High-res models are picking up on it. Actually is fairly typical to have some of that going on during "peak heating" under a strong ULL.

We should have some steep lapse rates too. The snow squall parameter looked decent especially for folks north of the river.

[tron777]

12z rgem showed some decent coverage for everyone.

[Trevor]