December 2023 Weather Discussion

[Trevor]

Some CAPE showing up and plenty of shear. Other ingredients are lacking but that may just be enough for a couple warnings.

[tron777]

Watch box out for Western KY. Radar shows a line thru central IN so there's your cold front.

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes likely

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes possible

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

[MVWxObserver]

2003 2 WNW Guthrie Todd KY 3666 8721 Trees down along US 41 southeast of Trenton KY. Relayed by WHOP radio. Time estimated from radar. (PAH)

2011 4 NE Guthrie Todd KY 3669 8713 Trained spotter reports many trees and power lines down and barns destroyed in addition to minor damage to houses along US 79 southwest of Allensville. Time estimated (PAH)

2113 UNK 3 SSE Bowling Green Warren KY 3694 8641 Roof damage to hotel. (LMK)

2014 Allensville Todd KY 3672 8707 Social media and public reports quite a bit of damage in and near Allensville. (PAH)

2018 UNK 1 ENE Olmstead Logan KY 3675 8700 Dispatch reports several houses and barns damaged ... mainly near Olmstead. (LMK)

2348 UNK 1 SE Munfordville Hart KY 3727 8589 Tree down on a power line. (LMK)

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

Got to 60 at both CVG / CMH and DAY 59 today.

[MVWxObserver]

https://www.whio.com/news/national/6-de ... RBX5JKKOA/

My nephew Jared and niece-in-law Madi reside in Brentwood, TN near Nashville. Madi's folks reside in Nashville.

Prayers and thoughts with TN and KY.

[Bgoney]

Event total here of 1.20” . Nice soaking for many with a notable exception of lesser amounts paralleling 71 corridor and right over CVG which only had .37”

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[tron777]

Good morning all! I can attest to the above map. At my Brother's in Milford, he was certainly part of the 1"+ camp. Got back home late last night and barely anything. 0.39" at the Boone Co mesonet site and I got 0.36" here.

Looking ahead and zzzzzzz is all I can say to describe the weather pattern. I was thinking that our next system would come in over next weekend with an upper low dropping in from the the NW and trying to phase with a system coming up from the south via the STJ. Models currently are keeping the STJ wave well south so we actually maybe dry next weekend if that trend were to hold. So, when is our next significant system coming? No idea. This is one of the most boring December's I have ever seen thus far other then the hailer MBY had last week.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a whopping 0.35 at my house. The forecast still ended up okay though could have went a tad lower on the low end. Some nasty storms in the Tn Valley and when this happens during the winter it can take up much of the energy which this storm always had but it can lead to less than normal rainfall than what models showed but they did come down in the last 12 hours.

The upcoming week looks like a normal mid-Dec week with nothing exciting happening. Still believe later this week some bigger changes with the models towards the last 1/3 of the month. Longer term to much involving the mean and though sometimes that works out I don't believe that is the case here. Stormier I believe though the trend locally is the precip is having a hard time in our area for the bigger amounts.

Snow cover still a problem north and west of us though some folks in the upper plains and mid-west got some on Saturday but with the pattern that should melt this week. The eastern part of Canada and very northeast USA is where the snow has been and again this is key in my thought process that the PV may not be displaced but we have seen these arms of the PV come down and I believe that is what happens the last 1/3 of the month. I see cold building away from Alaska and heading towards the Yukon area of Canada and this will be part of the PV that can swing this way.

So all in all not changing my tune on the last 1/3 of the month and hopefully the weekend these changes to the models will occur more often.

[Bgoney]

Long-term (2 weeks) has much of the same for North America, a pacific dominated pattern with no end in sight. We knew early on the first 3 weeks were going to be above average in temps, and Ensembles can now reach into the holiday time table and hoping to see improvements, but there are none. The same problems of no snow cover, a warm North America, no robust or sustained ridging along the Canadian/American pacific coast into Alaska, aka Aleutian low pattern persist. MJO was greatly exaggerated by some modeling as most here suspected. So the result is we still have a long way to go.

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[Trevor]

https://fb.watch/oRrOhkSi49/?mibextid=cr9u03

Overnight models took away the rain chances for next weekend so I will remove that in my next update. Could of course adjust back north but we will see.

[tpweather]

Nice Maps Bgoney. The next 10 days I agree with the models but after that there are some problems and one is the low southwest of Alaska. I believe two things and one is its further west and weaker and this should allow the trough in the east which is trying to show up around the 18th or 19th to be much broader than shown. Normally we look to the west and much of the weather comes from there but ridges and troughs can retrograde and I believe that is what we see the last 1/3 of the month. Again like I have mentioned the east coast is in the sweet spot this winter but we are close enough and will get our fair share of winter weather and I believe that starts around the 20th or 21st. If this was a season without the retrograding of troughs I would be really worried because the lack snow to the north and west. The good thing is plenty of snow to the northeast and these troughs can build and bring a decent shot of cold air.

[tron777]

I truly hate having to punt the rest of December for meaningful wintry weather but it is sure looking to be the case right now. I think what maybe happening with regards to the MJO is the Western Pacific is so warm, record levels in fact, that the MJO will have a hard time getting into the West Pac or Phase 8. It continues to be the El Nino versus La Nina like tendencies thanks to the weaking IOD and the -PDO. So the El Nino wants to take over and give us the Aleutian Low / +PNA pattern but the La Nina background state still wants to fight back. We knew December would be mild so that is not a surprise, but the data was looking good with regards to Christmas onwards. Now, it appears we maybe waiting until January at this time. I just hope the can kicking doesn't continue or it'll be another lackluster winter all over again. The PV does look to get weaker over time but that isn't going to be enough. The cold / snow cover are clearly on the other side of the globe and once you get that going, with the +EPO, that pattern can be so hard to break.

[Bgoney]

Nice Maps Bgoney. The next 10 days I agree with the models but after that there are some problems and one is the low southwest of Alaska. I believe two things and one is its further west and weaker and this should allow the trough in the east which is trying to show up around the 18th or 19th to be much broader than shown. Normally we look to the west and much of the weather comes from there but ridges and troughs can retrograde and I believe that is what we see the last 1/3 of the month. Again like I have mentioned the east coast is in the sweet spot this winter but we are close enough and will get our fair share of winter weather and I believe that starts around the 20th or 21st. If this was a season without the retrograding of troughs I would be really worried because the lack snow to the north and west. The good thing is plenty of snow to the northeast and these troughs can build and bring a decent shot of cold air.

Hello Tim , to me , the pattern you mention would be pretty much what we’ve seen, a weak system in the mid section of the country transforming to a stronger system along the coast, which leads to a few days of northerly flow on the backside and a cool down for us. Hopefully we see that cool down around Christmas +~, but I don’t see much of an overall 500mb change of the ebb and flows of ridges and troughs

[Trevor]

I truly hate having to punt the rest of December for meaningful wintry weather but it is sure looking to be the case right now. I think what maybe happening with regards to the MJO is the Western Pacific is so warm, record levels in fact, that the MJO will have a hard time getting into the West Pac or Phase 8. It continues to be the El Nino versus La Nina like tendencies thanks to the weaking IOD and the -PDO. So the El Nino wants to take over and give us the Aleutian Low / +PNA pattern but the La Nina background state still wants to fight back. We knew December would be mild so that is not a surprise, but the data was looking good with regards to Christmas onwards. Now, it appears we maybe waiting until January at this time. I just hope the can kicking doesn't continue or it'll be another lackluster winter all over again. The PV does look to get weaker over time but that isn't going to be enough. The cold / snow cover are clearly on the other side of the globe and once you get that going, with the +EPO, that pattern can be so hard to break.

Yeah man that’s where I’m at. Dec has been cooler than I was expecting but my snowless forecast is looking solid for now! Of course it only takes one storm to mess that up but I like my odds to be honest.

[Trevor]

Euro Weeklies and GEFS 7-day temp anomalies. Euro goes out through late January, GEFS a bit shorter to mid January. Both show us dominated by above normal temperatures which is very typical for El Nino. The Euro shows the warmth relaxing by middle January,

[Trevor]

Keep in mind though that we will see cold shots in an above average pattern. The cold just doesn't have any staying power. The zonal pattern has been hard to kick this fall and winter thus far. We see our troughs from time to time but mainly quiet. I'm not as optimistic as some others about any major pattern changes through at least the end of week one of January, maybe longer.

[tron777]

Keep in mind though that we will see cold shots in an above average pattern. The cold just doesn't have any staying power. The zonal pattern has been hard to kick this fall and winter thus far. We see our troughs from time to time but mainly quiet. I'm not as optimistic as some others about any major pattern changes through at least the end of week one of January, maybe longer.

I'm still hopeful for early January but December is dead unless we get one of those "make your own cold air" type of systems. Those are always long shots at best.

[tron777]

For now... in the short term, I am going dry thru Saturday. I'm not sure yet about Sunday if we get that phase or not. Regardless, we're either dry with no phase or a big rain maker if we do phase since we have zero cold air to work with.

[Snow plow man]

Flurries in Fairfield Township

[tron777]

Flurries in Fairfield Township

Nice! There is a small band of flurries / sprinkles dropping SE thru the area. Soak it up I guess!

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 46, DAY 45 and CMH 49 today.