El Nino, The 2023-2024 Winter, and You!

[tron777]

To add to the ongoing discussion... check out what the GEFS extended is showing with regards to forcing. If correct, we should see the MJO take a tour thru Phases 7, 8, 1, and 2 for the later portion of December. In January those phases would absolutely work!

gfs-ens_chi200Mean_global_29.png.7ebae58bebf274efb42889f8c5c18b1c.png

So right now... I like my longer term thoughts of getting colder later this month into early December. Then the MJO goes thru the Phase 3-6 tour which is warm for mid December. Probably a couple of weeks of warm. Then we get colder again in time for the Holidays if the forcing plays out this way. A big if obviously but that is true 90% of the time in weather anyway lol December will likely skew warm as we've been discussing but early in the month then later in the month should be our snow opportunities IMO.

[Phr0z3n]

To add to the ongoing discussion... check out what the GEFS extended is showing with regards to forcing. If correct, we should see the MJO take a tour thru Phases 7, 8, 1, and 2 for the later portion of December. In January those phases would absolutely work!


gfs-ens_chi200Mean_global_29.png.7ebae58bebf274efb42889f8c5c18b1c.png


So right now... I like my longer term thoughts of getting colder later this month into early December. Then the MJO goes thru the Phase 3-6 tour which is warm for mid December. Probably a couple of weeks of warm. Then we get colder again in time for the Holidays if the forcing plays out this way. A big if obviously but that is true 90% of the time in weather anyway lol December will likely skew warm as we've been discussing but early in the month then later in the month should be our snow opportunities IMO.

Good post!
I really like how the MJo so far seems to be a major factor.

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Current gfs ensemble mjo forecast

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Phase 1 impacts

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Phase 2 impacts

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Phase 3 impacts

I really like how this is setting up. Euro operational and GFS are also hinting about a possible stratospheric warming and displacement of the polar vortex after day 9. Current northern hemispheric blocking looks to me like it is in a loading pattern for a stratospheric warming. It appears it’s going to be a wait and see!

[tron777]

To add to the ongoing discussion... check out what the GEFS extended is showing with regards to forcing. If correct, we should see the MJO take a tour thru Phases 7, 8, 1, and 2 for the later portion of December. In January those phases would absolutely work!


gfs-ens_chi200Mean_global_29.png.7ebae58bebf274efb42889f8c5c18b1c.png


So right now... I like my longer term thoughts of getting colder later this month into early December. Then the MJO goes thru the Phase 3-6 tour which is warm for mid December. Probably a couple of weeks of warm. Then we get colder again in time for the Holidays if the forcing plays out this way. A big if obviously but that is true 90% of the time in weather anyway lol December will likely skew warm as we've been discussing but early in the month then later in the month should be our snow opportunities IMO.

Good post!
I really like how the MJo so far seems to be a major factor.
IMG_0315.gif
Current gfs ensemble mjo forecast
IMG_0312.gif
Phase 1 impacts
IMG_0313.gif
Phase 2 impacts
IMG_0314.gif
Phase 3 impacts

I really like how this is setting up. Euro operational and GFS are also hinting about a possible stratospheric warming and displacement of the polar vortex after day 9. Current northern hemispheric blocking looks to me like it is in a loading pattern for a stratospheric warming. It appears it’s going to be a wait and see!

This is a great post as well! We would not see the effects from an SSW event until January anyway in my mind. Concerning the MJO, it still looks to me like we will be cold to start December, then warm up for the mid month period, then cool back down again as we approach Christmas. I'm rolling with that until we get closer into the normal GEFS and EPS wheelhouses.

[tron777]

CB's Winter Outlook form WKYT in Lexington:


https://www.wkyt.com/video/2023/11/16/w ... ntent=wkyt

[Bgoney]

-PDO not going anywhere soon, hanging tough

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[tpweather]

-PDO not going anywhere soon, hanging tough




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Great Post Bgoney and this has been strongly negative since 2019. I believe though its trying to flip to at least neutral or maybe positive. The latest month is one of the all time negatives over the past 100 plus years but when I see that occur a major flip seems to occur. The water temps especially along the coastal waters off North America are warmer and this imo would lead to a less negative outcome in the next few months. I will watch this during the winter and see if we head towards neutral or positive phase. Even if we get a big push towards positive will it stay or go back to negative.

[tron777]

-PDO not going anywhere soon, hanging tough




IMG_0856.gif

Great Post Bgoney and this has been strongly negative since 2019. I believe though its trying to flip to at least neutral or maybe positive. The latest month is one of the all time negatives over the past 100 plus years but when I see that occur a major flip seems to occur. The water temps especially along the coastal waters off North America are warmer and this imo would lead to a less negative outcome in the next few months. I will watch this during the winter and see if we head towards neutral or positive phase. Even if we get a big push towards positive will it stay or go back to negative.

If anything the heat if you will, around Japan continues to expand to the east. Just an odd SST configuration to be quite honest. I don't think anyone truly knows what'll happen this winter with all of the conflicting signals out there. You have evidence for a warm winter and you have just as much evidence arguing for cold. I've made my call and am sticking with it. Of course a mild December upcoming as a whole for the month then better chances for snow lovers after the New Year.

[Bgoney]

The fact that the MJO is waking up from its slumber over the last several months means the waning IOD is finally losing its grip on its eastward progression and its lack of amplitude

[tron777]

The fact that the MJO is waking up from its slumber over the last several months means the waning IOD is finally losing its grip on its eastward progression and its lack of amplitude

This can be both good and bad. Good if the MJO keeps going thru Phases 7, 8, 1, and 2. Bad if it goes thru the warmer phases of 3, 4, 5, and 6. This is for the Dec - Feb period of course. Currently we take a trip thru the warmer phases and thus, the mild December most are expecting.

[tpweather]

Trying to do some research on the mjo during an El Nino and though nothing conclusive it seems to me the mjo will tend to move more quickly to different phases compared to a La Nina season. We saw last year with a La Nina how the mjo can get stuck in certain phases and last year it was phases 3-6 and winter after Jan 1 was horrible. Also researching the QBO and again nothing conclusive but it seems when we have an El Nino the QBO has less influence on the upcoming winter.

Like Les mentioned it looks like we are heading into phase 3 and then 4 but again not a strong phase by any means and could be heading to the COD. The mjo is just one item we must watch and if we get the correct blocking winter weather can happen in any phase but normally phase 8-2 during the winter ups the chances with the correct blocking.

Later this week into next week the AO looks negative and that is good for some cold air to head south into the USA. The NAO however looks to be neutral or slightly positive so that may not allow enough blocking to get a bigger storm until these systems are well east of us but you can get these big lows in eastern Canada that just sits and rotates and this should help in keeping the cold air near us and chances of at least some light snow events but again nothing looks big locally.

Les I agree with your forecast of a milder period in December and you have had that on the board for sometime. This is not a bad sign as the cold air around the poles with the PV in early to mid-Dec can really get quite cold and can we tap that cold sometimes towards the Christmas holiday season.

[tron777]

Great post Tim, although let me add that with an El Nino a descending QBO, or Easterly QBO (-QBO in English) is good to help promote blocking. We have been seeing that especially in AK and Canada. Agree with you on the MJO thoughts. For December, early and late I think are the best chances for cold and / or snow. So honestly no changes from me on the longer term. I hope we see the winds relax for the PV in mid to late Dec. That should help us out big time for January if that is indeed the case. Way too early to know right now since it is only Nov 20th so a lot of this is pure speculation.

[dce]

-PDO not going anywhere soon, hanging tough




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What stands out to me, along with the -PDO, is that the temperatures across the equatorial Pacific are becoming more uniformly equal across all 4 enso regions. Many models have an El Modoki developing during the winter months. I'm curious to see if this is, indeed, what is beginning to occur.

[Bgoney]

Weekly update on Enso numbers . Still firmly in the East based variety, and slowly growing into that tweener of an East based/modoki combo that we thought a month or two ago

IMG_0891.jpeg

[tron777]

Weekly update on Enso numbers . Still firmly in the East based variety, and slowly growing into that tweener of an East based/modoki combo that we thought a month or two ago




IMG_0891.jpeg

I am fairly confident that the forcing will remain West of the date line with this El Nino but what I do find interesting is that it is still trying to strengthen a bit. I still believe that Super status is off the table. Strong status is certainly still in play. I am curious to see the MEI reading for November when it comes out in the next week.

[tpweather]

Weekly update on Enso numbers . Still firmly in the East based variety, and slowly growing into that tweener of an East based/modoki combo that we thought a month or two ago




IMG_0891.jpeg

I am fairly confident that the forcing will remain West of the date line with this El Nino but what I do find interesting is that it is still trying to strengthen a bit. I still believe that Super status is off the table. Strong status is certainly still in play. I am curious to see the MEI reading for November when it comes out in the next week.

I still believe moderate to strong but does a strong El Nino mean the same as any other strong El Nino. I am not sure as much of the oceans are very warm and many times with the strong El Nino's you of course had the very warm waters near the equator but tons of cold waters in the remaining parts of the pacific. That is not the case this time and again probably something we will need to revisit after this winter is over with. Sure we are seeing some aspects of an El Nino already with the STJ and a milder northern plains area. Still believe the east coast will be the big winner this year but usually when they win big wit snow and cold we also tend to have a decent winter as well. Just give me those two app runners with one around Christmas and another near ground hog day and then we can fill the rest with some clippers or smaller systems that bring a few inches. Still believe an early spring in March but if the winter is willing to play ball then an early spring is fine with me

[Bgoney]

Weekly update on Enso numbers . Still firmly in the East based variety, and slowly growing into that tweener of an East based/modoki combo that we thought a month or two ago




IMG_0891.jpeg

I am fairly confident that the forcing will remain West of the date line with this El Nino but what I do find interesting is that it is still trying to strengthen a bit. I still believe that Super status is off the table. Strong status is certainly still in play. I am curious to see the MEI reading for November when it comes out in the next week.

I don’t think it’s anything unexpected, ninos usually peak in late December. For the MEI, it has such a long way to go to fit into the strong category I don’t see how it reaches that designation for that particular Index

[tpweather]

Weekly update on Enso numbers . Still firmly in the East based variety, and slowly growing into that tweener of an East based/modoki combo that we thought a month or two ago




IMG_0891.jpeg

I am fairly confident that the forcing will remain West of the date line with this El Nino but what I do find interesting is that it is still trying to strengthen a bit. I still believe that Super status is off the table. Strong status is certainly still in play. I am curious to see the MEI reading for November when it comes out in the next week.

I don’t think it’s anything unexpected, ninos usually peak in late December. For the MEI, it has such a long way to go to fit into the strong category I don’t see how it reaches that designation for that particular Index

Great Point Bgoney and I agree it really is a moderate El Nino. I saw a little uptick this past week but it may be peaking already and again we had the waters go from a 3 year La Nina to warm waters very quickly this past spring and sometimes when things turnaround that quickly they can quickly go the other way. I know NOAA is probably having the El Nino going through next summer but again going on past data is fine but also the climate is changing and is it changing more than ever and my guess yes and no because what data did we have say 300 years ago and what makes us believe that this has never happened before. The Climate Alarmists drive me nuts as they tend to cherry pick which items they want to show their agenda. Once I see the January average temp go up by 6 degrees each year I may get concerned but that has not happened and unless we start to see the northern hemisphere have more sunlight between Sept 21 and March 21 then we will be just fine. One item that still has my attention is the axis of the earth and if that shifts just a tad what happens to the climate. That is more important than cows having gas problems

[tron777]

Weekly update on Enso numbers . Still firmly in the East based variety, and slowly growing into that tweener of an East based/modoki combo that we thought a month or two ago




IMG_0891.jpeg

I am fairly confident that the forcing will remain West of the date line with this El Nino but what I do find interesting is that it is still trying to strengthen a bit. I still believe that Super status is off the table. Strong status is certainly still in play. I am curious to see the MEI reading for November when it comes out in the next week.

I don’t think it’s anything unexpected, ninos usually peak in late December. For the MEI, it has such a long way to go to fit into the strong category I don’t see how it reaches that designation for that particular Index

Oh I agree. I don't think that it changes anything as far as our sensible weather goes whether the Nino gets classified as Moderate, strong, super or whatever.

[Bgoney]

Haven’t look at SOI for awhile and I sure didn’t miss much, another pathetic sign that this Elnino has been over hyped

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[tron777]

The SOI average is actually rising so that still tells us that the El Nino is not totally influencing the pattern. The low MEI is also a clue. We are seeing the STJ throwing southern waves for Mexico into Texas and we still have a polar jet sending disturbances from Canada dropping Se into the country. We're not seeing a lot of big storm systems since the jets aren't phasing. Once they do our whether should get much more interesting. Give it 2-3 weeks and that should change per longer term guidance. The MJO should get back to Phase 7 and then 8 later in December after the 18th or something like that is my current thinking.

[Bgoney]

The SOI average is actually rising so that still tells us that the El Nino is not totally influencing the pattern. The low MEI is also a clue. We are seeing the STJ throwing southern waves for Mexico into Texas and we still have a polar jet sending disturbances from Canada dropping Se into the country. We're not seeing a lot of big storm systems since the jets aren't phasing. Once they do our whether should get much more interesting. Give it 2-3 weeks and that should change per longer term guidance. The MJO should get back to Phase 7 and then 8 later in December after the 18th or something like that is my current thinking.

This Turd (official designation from BGFC) of a so called strong ELNINO is just what the Dr. ordered, acting more like a weak or weak moderate gives us a better chance at a descent winter, especially with all the background tellies and other parameters seemingly in or heading in a favorable position

[tron777]

The SOI average is actually rising so that still tells us that the El Nino is not totally influencing the pattern. The low MEI is also a clue. We are seeing the STJ throwing southern waves for Mexico into Texas and we still have a polar jet sending disturbances from Canada dropping Se into the country. We're not seeing a lot of big storm systems since the jets aren't phasing. Once they do our whether should get much more interesting. Give it 2-3 weeks and that should change per longer term guidance. The MJO should get back to Phase 7 and then 8 later in December after the 18th or something like that is my current thinking.

This Turd (official designation from BGFC) of a so called strong ELNINO is just what the Dr. ordered, acting more like a weak or weak moderate gives us a better chance at a descent winter, especially with all the background tellies and other parameters seemingly in or heading in a favorable position

I am on the same page as you! I was a little early originally with the change to a more favorable pattern but I think what I just posted should work. For now...

[Bgoney]

Last 30 days of trends for SSTs. Can we say Elnino has peaked? We can say the -PDO is hanging tough. We can say the IOD continues its weakening, not only by the warming temps but the fact the MJO survived the Indian Ocean while moving eastward

IMG_0926.gif

[tron777]

Last 30 days of trends for SSTs. Can we say Elnino has peaked? We can say the -PDO is hanging tough. We can say the IOD continues its weakening, not only by the warming temps but the fact the MJO survived the Indian Ocean while moving eastward



IMG_0926.gif

I'd like to see the El Nino weaken faster. I would think that could help with slowing the Pacific Jet down to allow for the blocking to occur (-EPO) and actually stay for a while.

[Bgoney]

Last 30 days of trends for SSTs. Can we say Elnino has peaked? We can say the -PDO is hanging tough. We can say the IOD continues its weakening, not only by the warming temps but the fact the MJO survived the Indian Ocean while moving eastward



IMG_0926.gif

I'd like to see the El Nino weaken faster. I would think that could help with slowing the Pacific Jet down to allow for the blocking to occur (-EPO) and actually stay for a while.

I’m kind of thinking the darn -PDO has been the problem with the STJ all this fall keeping it more south and or weak over the mid section of the country (see drought monitor) before it energizes off the East coast , at the same time influencing the PAC jet strength. Just a thought, I have no idea if this a meteorological thing

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