June 2021 Weather Discussion

[Wxlrnr]

Got lucky in Hyde Park, shower went through around 2, dropped just over half an inch of rain. Won't have to water tonight.

[cloudy72]

It's been dark here a few times, but as usual, The Dome has held steady.

Not even dark here - just hot lol

[tron777]

Oh it's hot here. I hit 90 today, 89 currently. Just picked the first batch of beans for the season for supper tonight!

90 at CVG per the 5pm climate report.

[tpweather]

Made it to 90 degrees today and just one more possible 90 degree day before the pattern changes.

[tron777]

Made it to 90 degrees today and just one more possible 90 degree day before the pattern changes.

Agree Tim.... tomorrow should be the day.

[young pup]

Got 93 here today. Calling for 94 here tomorrow. Then 90 on Wednesday. It's getting crispier.

[cloudy72]

So apparently all I had to do was go out and water - then boom! Thunderstorms blowing up over my hood. Rarity indeed!

[Bgoney]

Balancing act that must be avoided

gfs_T2ma_us_4-1.png

[tron777]

Look for one more low 90 degree day today before rain chances return for everyone along with the front. Isolated chances today, and likely chances Wed and Thurs. The front passes thru and any lingering action is done. Friday might actually be dry! For Sat, are we dry or does the upper low bring in a chance for showers? GFS just barely clips us as the upper low drops in but it's a tad to the east. That is decent news. The Euro is a tad more east then the GFS so the shower chance would mainly be out east. Dry for the 4th itself as well. So things might be looking better for pyro's. We've got a bit more time to iron it out.

[tron777]

SPC also has us under a marginal risk for severe wx on Wed. Wet microbursts / downburst (in English strong winds lol) are possible in the strongest cells. Heavy rains of course will be the bigger issue for some folks.

[cloudy72]

So count me as one of the lucky ones yesterday - picked up 0.10" in the evening with those storms.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and rainfall this morning cut the walk in half this morning. Yesterday was the hottest day I have felt this year and that tropical moisture along with the late June sunshine made it feel horrible outside. Probably the first time ever I took a nap after spending 2 hours outside working in the yard. Rain this morning will give way to another hot and humid day down here in SC. Les has the forecast down and hope everyone gets a nice dose of rain over the next 3 days or so because I do believe the heat is coming in July though the first several days will be nice in terms of temps and humidity. Will travel on the 4th but should be home by noon. Mother nature loves to balance things out and I believe the heat out west will shift towards us in July and no it won't be that hot but 90's could become more likely during the month.

[tron777]

8am in the morning and we're already nearing the 80 degree mark. CVG has hit 92 a few times for the hottest day of the year so far. It would not surprise me to see CVG beat 92 today.

[tron777]

BG Storm Talk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/06/29/goode- ... -blog-629/

[cloudy72]

8am in the morning and we're already nearing the 80 degree mark. CVG has hit 92 a few times for the hottest day of the year so far. It would not surprise me to see CVG beat 92 today.

Agreed - unless one of the outflows from storms cuts into the heat again. Think most of the action will be north of 70 today, but can't rule out some isolated action for us to the south.

[tpweather]

Looks like the gfs is finally catching up on what the other models have been showing for sometime. Funny how the gfs had been doing better than the Euro but that has changed over the past 10 days or so. Again we need more data and another year or so to see if the new gfs is better than the old gfs.

[tron777]

Looks like the gfs is finally catching up on what the other models have been showing for sometime. Funny how the gfs had been doing better than the Euro but that has changed over the past 10 days or so. Again we need more data and another year or so to see if the new gfs is better than the old gfs.

I'm very curious to see how the GFS performs this winter. That will be the deal breaker for me.

[tron777]

87 already at CVG as of 10am. What a cooker we've got going today!

[tron777]

89 now so we'll see 90 very shortly officially anyway. Some of you are probably already there.

[tron777]

Not sure what's going on at CVG but they went from 89 at 11am to 88 as of 12pm. I'm at 92 right now here. I checked their most current ob and now CVG is at 90 as of this post. Will go ahead and update the contest.

[tron777]

12Z NAM is looking good for the likely POPS call for tomorrow and Thurs. The 12Z GFS is virtually the same. We get a dry Fri and the upper low is near PIT so besides a shower risk for the far Eastern counties, the rest of us are wonderful and dry for Saturday. I love these trends for my fireworks show and hope other pyro's out there have similar good fortune. :D Just hope that it doesn't trend back the other way lol

[tpweather]

Thursday looks like one of those few days you see in the summer with rain for much of the day. How much rainfall is the question and the answer to that question will be how long does it take the cold front to move through. So my guess is the further south you live the greater chances for more than 2 inches possible. Believe most folks should get close to the 1 inch mark . Wednesday is a day of change and expect a big uptick in showers and thundershowers but still not everyone will get hit like most will on Thursday. I saw Brian's video this morning and he believes the pattern will continue maybe through August and if that happens we are going to have some severe outbreaks. Usually once we get into mid-July through mid-Oct we have less and less severe weather but the current pattern if it holds true will bring some severe weather with all the heat available.

[winterstormjoe]

Not sure what's going on at CVG but they went from 89 at 11am to 88 as of 12pm. I'm at 92 right now here. I checked their most current ob and now CVG is at 90 as of this post. Will go ahead and update the contest.

Les, I really underestimated the warm surges for this month, I was counting on cooler/wetter conditions for June with 0 90 degree days. Oh well, maybe I can make it up for the rest of the summer.

On another note, I hope our "dry" chances for this weekend keeps increasing.

[tron777]

Thursday looks like one of those few days you see in the summer with rain for much of the day. How much rainfall is the question and the answer to that question will be how long does it take the cold front to move through. So my guess is the further south you live the greater chances for more than 2 inches possible. Believe most folks should get close to the 1 inch mark . Wednesday is a day of change and expect a big uptick in showers and thundershowers but still not everyone will get hit like most will on Thursday. I saw Brian's video this morning and he believes the pattern will continue maybe through August and if that happens we are going to have some severe outbreaks. Usually once we get into mid-July through mid-Oct we have less and less severe weather but the current pattern if it holds true will bring some severe weather with all the heat available.

Wonderful post Tim! Love how the front passes thru during peak heating on Thursday so like you said a wet day for sure and the rain may begin as BG said early.

[tron777]

Not sure what's going on at CVG but they went from 89 at 11am to 88 as of 12pm. I'm at 92 right now here. I checked their most current ob and now CVG is at 90 as of this post. Will go ahead and update the contest.

Les, I really underestimated the warm surges for this month, I was counting on cooler/wetter conditions for June with 0 90 degree days. Oh well, maybe I can make it up for the rest of the summer.

On another note, I hope our "dry" chances for this weekend keeps increasing.

Same here Joe! Love seeing the cooler temps too in the 70s / L80s for most folks. Beats the heck out of the current airmass!