El Nino, The 2023-2024 Winter, and You!

[tpweather]

Hey Les and it seems during the last week the El Nino has sort of stopped getting stronger and maybe a bit further west with the warmer waters. Maybe its my eyes or maybe because I was not expecting a strong El Nino and more wishful thinking, Still no sold on the stronger one yet but in a few weeks this should play out more and have a much better ideal if it has already peaked or getting stronger.

[tron777]

Hey Les and it seems during the last week the El Nino has sort of stopped getting stronger and maybe a bit further west with the warmer waters. Maybe its my eyes or maybe because I was not expecting a strong El Nino and more wishful thinking, Still no sold on the stronger one yet but in a few weeks this should play out more and have a much better ideal if it has already peaked or getting stronger.

The Nino's forcing is a bit west which is good, but it is still East Based and it is trying to strengthen just a bit at this time. In fact, the GFS is showing a very pronounced WWB coming (if the model is to be believed anyway).

GFS WWB.gif

The good news though is I think that the warmest anomalies are trying to shift more to the West. We need to see how things go over the next month as there is still time before winter starts for this El Nino to continue to morph and change. This isn't the worst look in the world that I have seen, but it still needs some work.

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[tron777]

October's 30 MB QBO reading is in: -16.98.

[Bgoney]

October's 30 MB QBO reading is in: -16.98.

I don’t think we want it much more negative for the winter months, anything in the -20s from what I remember over the years

[tpweather]

October's 30 MB QBO reading is in: -16.98.

Les that is a big drop I believe and if we can keep that in the -25 - 15 I believe is a nice place to be and adding to post this kind of drop this time of year does look like a true El Nino with more ridging in the west and the STJ takes over for the most part.

[tpweather]

October's 30 MB QBO reading is in: -16.98.

I don’t think we want it much more negative for the winter months, anything in the -20s from what I remember over the years

Bgoney I agree and it seems once we get at -25 or so this does not bode well.

[tron777]

October's 30 MB QBO reading is in: -16.98.

I don’t think we want it much more negative for the winter months, anything in the -20s from what I remember over the years

Bgoney I agree and it seems once we get at -25 or so this does not bode well.

I'm with Tim... -15 to -25 is good with a strong El Nino in place.

[Bgoney]

Nothing surprising from the weekly ENSO update

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[tron777]

Not at all, still primarily East Based with regards to the warmest anomalies. In other news.... Per the WCS website, the Daily PDO index has risen just a bit again.

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[tron777]

Snow and ice coverage map from yesterday. Remember, this is not snow depth or ice thickness, just showing actual coverage.

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[Bgoney]

Haven’t been able to verify yet , but read where the MEI for SO was .30 . If so , this ElNino has a loooooong way to go to be significant

[tron777]

Haven’t been able to verify yet , but read where the MEI for SO was .30 . If so , this ElNino has a loooooong way to go to be significant

I can verify it. You are absolutely correct. The MEI has DROPPED. For AS it was at .60 It could be the +IOD and / or the -PDO helping to keep this Nino in check despite the warm SST's.

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

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[Bgoney]

Haven’t been able to verify yet , but read where the MEI for SO was .30 . If so , this ElNino has a loooooong way to go to be significant

I can verify it. You are absolutely correct. The MEI has DROPPED. For AS it was at .60 It could be the +IOD and / or the -PDO helping to keep this Nino in check despite the warm SST's.

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/


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Thanks Les. Your reasons make sense to me since one was at peak anomaly and the other fairly high during those 2 months

[tron777]

Here is a look at Global SST anomalies as of 11/6. I haven't looked at it in the last week.

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The two things in the Pacific that stick out like a sore thumb to me is the El Nino of course and the very warm waters around Japan. Also on the Atlantic side a pocket of cool water off of Newfoundland. We'll see how things go I guess. I have made my winter time call already of a mild December, and a better pattern for cold and snow lovers in January and February aka a back loaded winter. With how this Nino has been behaving it is anyone's guess at this stage of the game. November is going to turn out well above avg despite what I thought a few months ago. I thought Nov was going to turn cold after the warm October we saw. But that is going to be wrong obviously.

[tron777]

JB's winter forecast is out from Weather Bell. He thinks winter starts in mid Dec and is going with a cold DJF period. Quite the difference from my mild December then colder Jan / Feb thoughts. We'll see! Would love for JB to be right for once of course.

https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-seasonal-forecast

[tpweather]

Les you and Bgoney have been talking about many things that JB has in his post. I believe its going to be a nice winter though the worse area I believe is just east of here and expecting the mid-Atlantic and Northeast to not only get the cold but a few huge storms. So I do like the call of the mjo phase he mentioned. Last year was horrible in phase 4-6 so if we can stay in the 7-1 that no doubt will help. So having a mild November is fine and we already had a taste of the cold in October which is a good sign as well. Timing is always tough and again I do believe we turn colder later this month but not sure it holds and we may need a SSW event to really keep the cold going and that is probably closer to the Christmas period.

[Bgoney]

I expected nothing less from JB than a wire to wire winter

[tron777]

Les you and Bgoney have been talking about many things that JB has in his post. I believe its going to be a nice winter though the worse area I believe is just east of here and expecting the mid-Atlantic and Northeast to not only get the cold but a few huge storms. So I do like the call of the mjo phase he mentioned. Last year was horrible in phase 4-6 so if we can stay in the 7-1 that no doubt will help. So having a mild November is fine and we already had a taste of the cold in October which is a good sign as well. Timing is always tough and again I do believe we turn colder later this month but not sure it holds and we may need a SSW event to really keep the cold going and that is probably closer to the Christmas period.

2009 is being thrown around as an analog and we had a very warm November then. We turned colder in December and we all know how awesome Feb 2010 was for CVG. We'll see... I continue to hammer the point of conflicting signals out there and will continue to do so. An El Nino with a Nina background state is the Pacific side (+IOD and -PDO) so we must have the blocking in the AO and NAO domains that we saw in 2009 or else it will be another mild winter. I am banking on blocking episodes as well. A +PNA is typical with El Ninos so that will help too. I just hope we don't have a raging -PNA again with troughs digging all the way down into the Baja like we saw last year esp in December.

[tron777]

I expected nothing less from JB than a wire to wire winter

It's the same forecast every year. Click bait... Hope to see the blind squirrel catch a nut. One of these times he will be right of course.

[tpweather]

I expected nothing less from JB than a wire to wire winter

No doubt JB goes to the colder side in the winter but when he flops he admits the forecast was wrong and also explains why his thoughts were incorrect. I thought his maps this season were quite tame though I believe with the temps in an El Nino you must be careful because you can really have some warm days that counteract a period of colder weather.

[tron777]

I agree Tim! Just about every winter we have a lot of up's and down's in our region. It's just the way the weather works around here. Always has, always will. In other news... The TN Valley and SE US are in a very severe drought right now with numerous wildfires ongoing. Rain is desperately needed in those areas and right now, the future isn't looking so good. Hope to see that change in the next couple of weeks as we've been discussing on here. With an El Nino they should be getting wet but we are still seeing a Nina like pattern at this time.

[winterstormjoe]

I agree Tim! Just about every winter we have a lot of up's and down's in our region. It's just the way the weather works around here. Always has, always will. In other news... The TN Valley and SE US are in a very severe drought right now with numerous wildfires ongoing. Rain is desperately needed in those areas and right now, the future isn't looking so good. Hope to see that change in the next couple of weeks as we've been discussing on here. With an El Nino they should be getting wet but we are still seeing a Nina like pattern at this time.

We may have to wait till January to see the effects of a Nino, we had this past Nina for a long time (3 years). Last time I believe was in the early 70's and transitioned into a Nino by the mid to late 70's and we saw what happened then! So, if this Nino takes hold again next winter it's effects should take hold more. Of course, the mid to late 70's had other factors going on that helped with our block buster winters!

[tron777]

I agree Tim! Just about every winter we have a lot of up's and down's in our region. It's just the way the weather works around here. Always has, always will. In other news... The TN Valley and SE US are in a very severe drought right now with numerous wildfires ongoing. Rain is desperately needed in those areas and right now, the future isn't looking so good. Hope to see that change in the next couple of weeks as we've been discussing on here. With an El Nino they should be getting wet but we are still seeing a Nina like pattern at this time.

We may have to wait till January to see the effects of a Nino, we had this past Nina for a long time (3 years). Last time I believe was in the early 70's and transitioned into a Nino by the mid to late 70's and we saw what happened then! So, if this Nino takes hold again next winter it's effects should take hold more. Of course, the mid to late 70's had other factors going on that helped with our block buster winters!

Agreed Joe. That is why I said a mild December then colder for Jan and Feb.

[winterstormjoe]

I agree Tim! Just about every winter we have a lot of up's and down's in our region. It's just the way the weather works around here. Always has, always will. In other news... The TN Valley and SE US are in a very severe drought right now with numerous wildfires ongoing. Rain is desperately needed in those areas and right now, the future isn't looking so good. Hope to see that change in the next couple of weeks as we've been discussing on here. With an El Nino they should be getting wet but we are still seeing a Nina like pattern at this time.

We may have to wait till January to see the effects of a Nino, we had this past Nina for a long time (3 years). Last time I believe was in the early 70's and transitioned into a Nino by the mid to late 70's and we saw what happened then! So, if this Nino takes hold again next winter it's effects should take hold more. Of course, the mid to late 70's had other factors going on that helped with our block buster winters!

Agreed Joe. That is why I said a mild December then colder for Jan and Feb.

Les, I still remember the strong Nino's from the 1982-83 and 1991-92 winters that were just awful. Hoping for a least a moderate Nino that is west based and with other helpful factors that were mentioned on this thread. I'm so ready for a decent winter for once!

[tron777]

I agree Tim! Just about every winter we have a lot of up's and down's in our region. It's just the way the weather works around here. Always has, always will. In other news... The TN Valley and SE US are in a very severe drought right now with numerous wildfires ongoing. Rain is desperately needed in those areas and right now, the future isn't looking so good. Hope to see that change in the next couple of weeks as we've been discussing on here. With an El Nino they should be getting wet but we are still seeing a Nina like pattern at this time.

We may have to wait till January to see the effects of a Nino, we had this past Nina for a long time (3 years). Last time I believe was in the early 70's and transitioned into a Nino by the mid to late 70's and we saw what happened then! So, if this Nino takes hold again next winter it's effects should take hold more. Of course, the mid to late 70's had other factors going on that helped with our block buster winters!

Agreed Joe. That is why I said a mild December then colder for Jan and Feb.

Les, I still remember the strong Nino's from the 1982-83 and 1991-92 winters that were just awful. Hoping for a least a moderate Nino that is west based and with other helpful factors that were mentioned on this thread. I'm so ready for a decent winter for once!

What's interesting also Joe is that despite the SST's pointing to an East Based El Nino, the forcing continues to be West of the dateline.

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