El Nino, The 2023-2024 Winter, and You!

[Phr0z3n]

Hey Phr0z3n! Always glad to see your posts. What are your thoughts on the tropical forcing for El Nino? It is expected to shift towards the West as time goes on which is good. Preferably, we'd like to see it near or West of the Date Line in the West Pac. If it is East Based, that is usually never good for the Eastern US for cold and snow lovers.

The -QBO is looking good. If I recall, at 30 MB it was at -9.88 for Sept.

Very good question. 850 hpa anomalous easterly winds look like they’re dying down as well as MJO activity. So there is a chance they could propagate west to the center of the Nino regions. We’ll definitely have to watch. Euro weeklies are developing a nice east of Mississippi trough at 500 with a decent Greenland block. It’s been keeping this solution for a few runs now. So that’s promising. Weeklies also kept
Pos temp anomalies centered on the plains for the most part. In the first half of October pos temp anomalies do edge over Ohio but retreat the second half of October.

[Phr0z3n]

So here’s the 30 day euro weekly for October

D5168C50-AD39-4B25-97A2-C5DAE92B555E.png

I would think that October will feel overall very seasonal.
I looked at ecmwf seasonal,canspis and cv2. They all have a general idea of December being somewhat normal to mild and then go nuts with blocking in Jan and Feb. I’m thinking the east coast will cash in on this with nor’easters. We should do alright also with a -epo. We could very easily cash in on an apps runner and type Miller snowstorms with this setup also should It come to fruition.

B2B1BD8A-AA3A-491D-A98B-78F70A1AFFC8.png

So far I think the seasonals look very moderate El Niño like. Kind of reminds me of 09-10.

[tron777]

Thanks for the responses, Phr0z3n! I think 09-10 was a moderate Modiki El Nino if my memory serves me correctly. That would be nice to see that configuration again. Mild Decembers are typical in El Ninos so that has been my thoughts for a while now with an improving January pattern and a great February. That was how 09-10 behaved. Feb of 2010 brought us that Super Clipper pattern and we had the snowiest Feb on record at CVG. 26.1" fell for the month with a peak snow depth of 15". That's pretty darn good for this area. Snow remained on the ground from 2/5 thru 2/27.

[tron777]

Here is the NAO forecast form the Ensemble Models. As you can see, February looks really good in that regard.

ENS NAO Forecast.png

The PDO is still very negative and that does concern me. The SST's off the coast of Japan are still on fire! Until those cool down some we will likely see an Aleutian Ridge and a trough in the West with a ridge on the East. (-PNA) The MJO is a wildcard though so we'll see what happens with it down the road. I think this backs up a mild December that I am thinking we will see.

PDO.png

[tpweather]

Good Morning and love the posts on this topic. Again many things can change and sometimes its not even the El Nino that is running the show but usually has some affects. With the current pattern the waters off the pacific northwest should cool some and we would like those to remain warmer but getting the pattern earlier than normal that may help in the long run. Many folks use analogs and they are a great tool. I believe the problem with them is going back more than say 20-25 years the oceans were much cooler and that no doubt has changed weather patterns. I will try and use analogs from about 2000 and 2022 when I really start getting a forecast together.

[tron777]

Good Morning and love the posts on this topic. Again many things can change and sometimes its not even the El Nino that is running the show but usually has some affects. With the current pattern the waters off the pacific northwest should cool some and we would like those to remain warmer but getting the pattern earlier than normal that may help in the long run. Many folks use analogs and they are a great tool. I believe the problem with them is going back more than say 20-25 years the oceans were much cooler and that no doubt has changed weather patterns. I will try and use analogs from about 2000 and 2022 when I really start getting a forecast together.

Great post Tim! This is not a global warming post but our background state is much warmer now then it was then and the oceans are playing a huge role in that as you mentioned. So when using analogs from long ago, just tweak the temps up a few degrees and it should be fine to use them.

[tron777]

Well folks... I have got to say that this El Nino is not behaving like El Nino's of the past. The warming continues to be halted. Look at this chart for ENSO region 3.4:

ElNino 34.png

850Winds.gif

In addition, the -PDO is extremely negative, and it's even more negative right now then we even saw with last years La Nina. The current daily value is is -2.52!

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

PDO.png

In short, I do not know what is going to happen this winter with such conflicting signals. What I do believe is that we will not see a Super El Nino which seems to be all the rage on the internet. I think moderate is a good call, maybe low end strong at best. The extreme -PDO probably concerns me the most. Will we see a nasty -PNA and a monster SE ridge this winter? The last several winters we certainly have, but we had a Nina and not a Nino. What do you guys think? I am perplexed right now to be completely honest. The -QBO though is a good thing with an El Nino in terms of high latitude blocking. So again, a lot of mixed signals going on currently across the globe.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and I saw a few days ago where the waters in that region cooled big time. Your info matches that and again we are dealing with an El Nino that maybe has already peaked? With the amount of Atlantic tropical systems over the past 30-45 days that looked nothing like an El Nino. In the long run I prefer a weaker episode though we know many other factors to put in the old equation.Going to be fun over the next month to see if this was just a brief cool down or a longer term deal.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and I saw a few days ago where the waters in that region cooled big time. Your info matches that and again we are dealing with an El Nino that maybe has already peaked? With the amount of Atlantic tropical systems over the past 30-45 days that looked nothing like an El Nino. In the long run I prefer a weaker episode though we know many other factors to put in the old equation.Going to be fun over the next month to see if this was just a brief cool down or a longer term deal.

Tim, we have such a small sample size and very limited info of winters that featured a mod to strong El Nino with a negative PDO. That combination is rare. It's just going to depend on what feature is driving the pattern. If the Niño fails to get very strong, then it likely would not be in the drivers seat. The descending QBO may have a say as well as the very negative PDO. I'd love to see the PDO starting rising. I'd feel better but it continues to drop and it is just about at a record low in fact. It's like we have a Niño trying to take control but the background state is acting like a cool ENSO event still, La Nina in other words. The winter of 1972-1973 is a good analog. We were coming off of back to back Ninas and then had a strong El Nino that winter. Looking at the data for Cincinnati, Nov of 72 was very mild but the pattern flipped the last few days of the month and it turned cold and snowy with 6" of snow from two separate systems near months end. In December, we had dramatic warm ups and cool downs with the month avg. right at normal for temps, but well below avg in snowfall. Only 2" fell. In Jan of 73, it was the same December pattern and only a 1/2" of snow fell for the entire month. In Feb, slightly below avg temps and 3" of snow fell. The winter as a whole had a lot of rain makers so I bet we had a good cutter pattern going (-PNA and SE Ridge). For March, it was a very mild month with a brief cold spell around St Patrick's Day and we had back to back light snow systems that produced 4". Let's hope that this analog does not come to fruition lol We need the active STJ for sure but we also need high latitude blocking in the form of a -EPO and +PNA to go along with it. Then we're talking your classic mid to late 70s winter but it has been hard getting a sustained +PNA during the winter time, we all know that.

[airwolf76]

I have an idea on how this winter will be. will post my thoughts in a couple weeks

[tron777]

I have an idea on how this winter will be. will post my thoughts in a couple weeks

Looking forward to reading that Charles!

[cloudy72]

Seems like the name of the game is a one or two week bitter cold snap in late Dec/early Jan with bouts of snow, and a couple sneaky systems in late Jan-Feb. Rest of winter is typically boring and milder than normal. I lost count of all the sleet fests we have had! LOL Oh yeah and then there is that mid-late March early April timeframe when we are wishing for spring and get that final blast of 33 degree cloudy misty days. Guess that sums it up for my prediction.

[MVWxObserver]

Seems like the name of the game is a one or two week bitter cold snap in late Dec/early Jan with bouts of snow, and a couple sneaky systems in late Jan-Feb. Rest of winter is typically boring and milder than normal. I lost count of all the sleet fests we have had! LOL Oh yeah and then there is that mid-late March early April timeframe when we are wishing for spring and get that final blast of 33 degree cloudy misty days. Guess that sums it up for my prediction.

Hey Mike,

I wouldn't be surprised for winter coats on the Redlegs 2024 Opening Day Thurs March 28th vs the Nats.

[tron777]

Seems like the name of the game is a one or two week bitter cold snap in late Dec/early Jan with bouts of snow, and a couple sneaky systems in late Jan-Feb. Rest of winter is typically boring and milder than normal. I lost count of all the sleet fests we have had! LOL Oh yeah and then there is that mid-late March early April timeframe when we are wishing for spring and get that final blast of 33 degree cloudy misty days. Guess that sums it up for my prediction.

That seems pretty typical Mike for an OV Winter as of late. One of these years we'll break out of it and get a blockbuster! Whether it's this season or down the road in future winters remains to be seen.

[tron777]

For those wanting to track the ENSO Regions on a weekly basis to see which region is cooling, staying the same, or warming, go here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indi ... st9120.for

The site gets updated every week. You will see the date, followed by Enso region 1-2, then 3, then 3.4 and finally 4 followed by the SSTA (SST Anomaly) in each region (Did it rise or fall from week to week in other words). It is good to monitor this for trends over several weeks or even a month. From what I can gather is that the event MIGHT BE transitioning from East Based to West based as the forcing is getting pushed to the West more due to lack of WWB's for the month of Sept. Strange, but that is what has been happening). We will need to see if any future WWB's occur for October. For now... this Nino is not behaving as one would expect it to behave so if it continues, we may not see typical winter weather associated with an El Nino. Whether it is bad or good for snow lovers remains to be seen.

Check out the below animation from the CPC updated on 9/27. This does not look like an El Nino that is going to be taking off anytime soon. You can tell that the forcing has been moving to the west also which is good.

sstaanim.gif

We still need to watch the other competing forces very negative -PDO (does it rise some heading into winter)? The descending QBO, very +IOD, and weak (at this time) MJO. Like I keep saying... there's a lot of conflicting signals out there right now and it's really hard to figure out how the winter will go. My early stance has been for a mild December, an improving January and a rocking February. As usual, we shall see!

[tpweather]

Hey Les and the positive IOD is usually when we have an El NIno episode and that last big time positive happened during the start of La Nina. The QBO is one I need to study more and can become quite complicated and yes dealing with wind direction. The mjo is weak but that usually picks up during the later fall and winter. Way to early for me to put out any forecast for the winter and the reason is I just don't have enough info and I never throw out something I don't truly believe in. Wrong many times but always how I see things. I love seeing other mets and forecasters and their thoughts all the time and even more important when they see something that I may have missed our I just disagree with the outcome.

[tron777]

Hey Les and the positive IOD is usually when we have an El NIno episode and that last big time positive happened during the start of La Nina. The QBO is one I need to study more and can become quite complicated and yes dealing with wind direction. The mjo is weak but that usually picks up during the later fall and winter. Way to early for me to put out any forecast for the winter and the reason is I just don't have enough info and I never throw out something I don't truly believe in. Wrong many times but always how I see things. I love seeing other mets and forecasters and their thoughts all the time and even more important when they see something that I may have missed our I just disagree with the outcome.

Thanks Tim! I had forgotten about the +IOD back in 2019 was with a La Nina. A -QBO with an El Nino can favor high latitude blocking. Last -QBO was with a La Nina if I recall. The last time we had a -QBO with a mod to strong El Nino was the wonderful winter of 2009-2010. Not expecting those same results mind you, since all winters are different. I would feel better if the PDO started to rise as we got closer to winter.

[tron777]

Googly Moogly! The Sept. PDO reading came in at an astounding -2.94!

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ ... v5.pdo.dat

No wonder the El Nino is having difficulties. With the PDO this negative, it could be offsetting the typical Nino effects. The -PDO concerned me in a lot of my previous posts, however, since it is out of phase with ENSO, this could be a good thing. With El Nino's we typically see a +PDO and with La Nina's a -PDO. It is rare to have an El Nino with a -PDO especially one this negative. Wow!

[tron777]

The below animation was updated as of 9/30. Subsurface cooling continues....

wkxzteq_anm.gif.34bd4912f3a9b8445af2b0ae1bc7cfa4.gif

[tpweather]

The below animation was updated as of 9/30. Subsurface cooling continues....


wkxzteq_anm.gif.34bd4912f3a9b8445af2b0ae1bc7cfa4.gif

Les the more I think about this it makes some sense. The turnaround from the colder waters to warmer waters this spring and summer just seemed way to quick and I am not surprise of some cooling. I am glad to see this since the way folks were talking in the summer it was going to be a strong El Nino and we don't do well in those conditions as to much warmth from the gulf states work their way in here.

[tron777]

The below animation was updated as of 9/30. Subsurface cooling continues....


wkxzteq_anm.gif.34bd4912f3a9b8445af2b0ae1bc7cfa4.gif

Les the more I think about this it makes some sense. The turnaround from the colder waters to warmer waters this spring and summer just seemed way to quick and I am not surprise of some cooling. I am glad to see this since the way folks were talking in the summer it was going to be a strong El Nino and we don't do well in those conditions as to much warmth from the gulf states work their way in here.

I was wrong with my La Nina hangover statement from the other day. It's the deeply -PDO that is causing the issue with the El Nino not being able to take off. We shall see if this bodes well for us down the road. If the blocking can maintain then I think it will.

[Bgoney]

Finally getting a chance to look at things . Biggest highlights for me is the IOD currently , for the most part having the biggest influence on MJO position, hence the pattern. Second, the BOM continues to be full of crap on their prediction of a super Nino

[Bgoney]

Looking at more info…..Another way of looking at the current ElNino is the bi-monthly MEI with August/September coming in at +0.6 which is rather weak or weakly influencing the pattern

IMG_0652.jpeg

[Bgoney]

Don’t expect the PDO to flip anytime soon with a gauntlet of low pressure to slam the NEpac over the next 2 weeks

[tron777]

Don’t expect the PDO to flip anytime soon with a gauntlet of low pressure to slam the NEpac over the next 2 weeks

I think it will rise over the winter but still remain on the negative side. Waters off the West Coast are cooling in response to the deeply -PDO that we currently have ongoing as well as the Aleutian Low.