Atlantic Hurricane Season 2023

[MVWxObserver]

Lee now at 75 mph moving N at 22 mph and expected to make landfall on NS later today.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[Bgoney]

As expected, I’ve found no sustained tropical force winds along the US coast , barely a few gusts to that criteria. Highest gusts are well east of its center 60-65 near Halifax

[tpweather]

As expected, I’ve found no sustained tropical force winds along the US coast , barely a few gusts to that criteria. Highest gusts are well east of its center 60-65 near Halifax

Yes I agree 100p/c. I see no systems in the Atlantic basin that will have much influence on the mainland USA. Will need to look south near the Caribbean or southern GOM over the next 30 days or so. El Nino no doubt playing a big part with the Hurricane season. Sure as usual we will have many named storms but come on NHC it becomes almost a joke and I believe you should have at least 48 hours in a row where winds can be measured at 74mph or higher to be named. Remember last week models were showing a hit to NYC or at least Maine and that was off as well because the storm weaken and moved faster.

[tron777]

We can kiss Lee good-bye. TS Margot is barely a TS and will become a TD shortly and eventually die off in a couple more days. TS Nigel has winds of 50 mph moving NNW at 14. This one will become a major hurricane next week, but looks to recurve and not bother the CONUS at all.

[tron777]

Nigel is now a hurricane with winds of 80 mph moving NW at 12. Max intensity forecast form the NHC is a Cat 3 with 120 mph winds. This system will be a fish storm.

[tron777]

Nigel has winds of 85 mph this morning. It will max out at a Cat 2 now instead of a 3 thanks to shear. Still expected to be a fish storm.

[tron777]

Nigel has winds of 100 mph moving N at 16. A new wave is coming off of Africa now that has a 70% chance in the next 5 days.

[tron777]

Nigel is at 85 mph moving NE at 30 mph. We can say good bye to this one. The Wave off the SE Coast has a 40% chance to develop and the African Wave still stands at 70%.

[tron777]

The wave off the SE Coast is now PTC # 16. It looks like we will have TS Ophelia down the road with this one. TS warnings are up for the impacted coastal regions.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC COASTS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 75.9W
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES

[tron777]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 75.0W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[tron777]

As of the 2pm update, we have TS Ophelia now for that system off the SE Coast.

Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...CYCLONE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 76.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

[tron777]

Ophelia maxed out at 70 mph per the 5am advisory. Weakening now as she moves inland over NC.

Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...OPHELIA MOVING INLAND OVER FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 77.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...OPHELIA CROSSES INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING OVER COASTAL OUTER BANKS AND
MID-ATLANTIC AS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 77.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

--------------------------------

Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 2...Retransmitted
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2023

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 39.7W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

Philippe looks to remain a TS and be a recurving system not bothering the US. We also have a new wave coming off of Africa that has a 20% chance in the next 5 days.

[tron777]

Ophelia has weakened to a remanent low now and we can kiss this one good-bye. TS Philippe has winds of 45 mph moving to the West at 9. A fish storm is still likely with this system. The new wave coming off of Africa is up to a 40% chance now in the next 5 days.

[tron777]

Philippe remains a TS with winds of 50 mph moving WNW at 10. This system is expected to remain a TS and eventually recurve away from land probably by next week.

The African wave now has an 80% chance in the next 5 days. We have a new wave in the S Gulf now to keep an eye on. This one currently has a 10% chance to develop.

[tron777]

Phillipe has winds of 50 mph moving WNW at 13. The African wave has a 90% chance now in the next 5 days. This one is likely to become our next named system which would be Rina.

[tron777]

Philippe is still out there with winds of 45 mph moving WNW at 5. This system will continue to slowly drift to the west and SW and dissipate by this weekend. Still watching the tropical wave, Invest 91L, behind Philippe which is still forecast to become a depression or even a TS later today per the NHC.

[tron777]

91L is now TS Rina with winds of 40 mph moving WNW at 10. This one currently is expected to remain a TS for the next several days on a continued WNW motion. Longer term ENS guidance eventually has Rina recurving to the NE and not bothering the United States,

[tpweather]

Philippe is still out there with winds of 45 mph moving WNW at 5. This system will continue to slowly drift to the west and SW and dissipate by this weekend. Still watching the tropical wave, Invest 91L, behind Philippe which is still forecast to become a depression or even a TS later today per the NHC.

The good thing about this system is it will stay rather far south and that is usually the case once we get into October. If this does not head north and involve the mainland USA then hopefully the cold fronts will start to make inroads in the mainland USA.

[tron777]

Philippe is still out there with winds of 45 mph moving WNW at 5. This system will continue to slowly drift to the west and SW and dissipate by this weekend. Still watching the tropical wave, Invest 91L, behind Philippe which is still forecast to become a depression or even a TS later today per the NHC.

The good thing about this system is it will stay rather far south and that is usually the case once we get into October. If this does not head north and involve the mainland USA then hopefully the cold fronts will start to make inroads in the mainland USA.

Philippe will be gone soon and I also believe Rina will remain on the weakside as well and eventually recurve. Not sure what else may form down the road since the season still has 2 more months to go.

[tron777]

Phillipe and Rina continue to be weak TS's. None pose a threat too land at this time. Some models forecast these two systems to merge into one storm but I don't currently think that will happen and if it did happen, it would still be a fish storm anyway.

[MVWxObserver]

Phillipe and Rina continue to be weak TS's. None pose a threat too land at this time. Some models forecast these two systems to merge into one storm but I don't currently think that will happen and if it did happen, it would still be a fish storm anyway.

Would be something if Phillipe and Rina merged then there could be a nautical "romance".

[tron777]

Phillipe and Rina continue to be weak TS's. None pose a threat too land at this time. Some models forecast these two systems to merge into one storm but I don't currently think that will happen and if it did happen, it would still be a fish storm anyway.

Would be something if Phillipe and Rina merged then there could be a nautical "romance".

[tron777]

Philippe has winds of 50 mph moving W at 7. It will turn more north and eventually NE next week. IT is also expected to become a minimal hurricane mid to late next week as it passes well E of Bermuda.

Rina has winds of 40 mph moving NW at 14. This system is expected to fizzle out sometime on Monday.

[tron777]

Phillipe has winds of 50 mph this morning moving NW at 10 mph. This system has remained much weaker then expected and could turn more northward further to the West and get captured by an Eastern US trough. This system needs to be watched in NE US and Eastern Canada as an extra tropical low. This one may not be a fish storm after all. Stay tuned...