El Nino, The 2023-2024 Winter, and You!

[dce]

Couldn't help but post, JB is the ultimate optimist on a cold winter no matter what! Lol!

If the blocking some of the models show then no doubt we could see a nice winter. The problem is we are several months away from knowing that plus will the warmer waters head west over the next few months as well. No doubt a different pattern than last year but we still have a few months before things really start getting into place. Even then we know a great pattern can change on a dime so many unknowns. Last season after the blizzard the winter was mainly a dud and then got cold in the spring.

Every strong El Nino that I know of over the past 60 years has been Torch City for the Eastern US. I see no reason why this wouldn't be any different. That being said, there are anomalies to just about anything. After the last several winters I'm willing to give anything a try. If we torch I'll just enjoy the milder temperatures.

[tron777]

EDITED Post to add another useful tweet.

[tron777]

[tron777]

Here are the temp. anomalies from the new Euro Seasonal run:

EuroSeaosnalTemps.jpg

This model rarely shows below avg temps so the fact that it has that mch of an air of normal temps is a good indication of the upper level pattern shown in the above Tweet Animation.

[tron777]

New JAMSTEC run is out for September and it looks pretty good. We have the Euro Seasonal, CANSIPS, JMA, and Jamstec all showing a decent wintrer upcoming. UKMET is much warmer then normal but so far it's an outlier. Everything should be taken with a grain of salt until we see the November runs of these models anyway. But, it's a weather forum so we talk about it.

JamstecTemps.png

JamstecPrecip.png

[Bgoney]

The early BOM predictions for Peak ENSO is going to fall flat on its face. Looks like 2 or under is the way to go

[tron777]

The early BOM predictions for Peak ENSO is going to fall flat on its face. Looks like under 2 is the way to go

All the talk is strong or even Super El Nino and we had a good WWB in August but for Sept, the warming has stopped and the trade winds are unusually strong during this El Nino which I am wondering is counteracting it. Like we had 3 La Nina's in a row, now an El Nino is trying to really take off but will it as you mentioned? I still want to see the forcing over the West Pac West of the Data Line for better MJO phases should that be a factor this winter. I know this far out it's a shot in the dark but could some of the seasonal climate models be going colder due to the Niño not being as strong as once believed? It's really going to be interesting to see what happens over the next 2 months. Has the Niño peaked already which is highly unusual or do we see another WWB down the road to kick start more warming? These are all wait and see questions of course.

EDIT: Link to the Aussie Data we are talking about:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Bgoney]

The early BOM predictions for Peak ENSO is going to fall flat on its face. Looks like under 2 is the way to go

All the talk is strong or even Super El Nino and we had a good WWB in August but for Sept, the warming has stopped and the trade winds are unusually strong during this El Nino which I am wondering is counteracting it. Like we had 3 La Nina's in a row, now an El Nino is trying to really take off but will it as you mentioned? I still want to see the forcing over the West Pac West of the Data Line for better MJO phases should that be a factor this winter. I know this far out it's a shot in the dark but could some of the seasonal climate models be going colder due to the Niño not being as strong as once believed? It's really going to be interesting to see what happens over the next 2 months. Has the Niño peaked already which is highly unusual or do we see another WWB down the road to kick start more warming? These are all wait and see questions of course.

It would take multiple WWBs at this point to get it above 2 for a tri-monthly result , imo , and I just don’t see that happening

[tron777]

The early BOM predictions for Peak ENSO is going to fall flat on its face. Looks like under 2 is the way to go

All the talk is strong or even Super El Nino and we had a good WWB in August but for Sept, the warming has stopped and the trade winds are unusually strong during this El Nino which I am wondering is counteracting it. Like we had 3 La Nina's in a row, now an El Nino is trying to really take off but will it as you mentioned? I still want to see the forcing over the West Pac West of the Data Line for better MJO phases should that be a factor this winter. I know this far out it's a shot in the dark but could some of the seasonal climate models be going colder due to the Niño not being as strong as once believed? It's really going to be interesting to see what happens over the next 2 months. Has the Niño peaked already which is highly unusual or do we see another WWB down the road to kick start more warming? These are all wait and see questions of course.

It would take multiple WWBs at this point to get it above 2 for a tri-monthly result , imo , and I just don’t see that happening

If correct, this would be fantastic news with regards to increasing cold and snow chances should the Nino stay in the more moderate range versus strong or Super. The pattern is definitely acting more Nina like versus Nino with the trough expected to develop into the Pacific NW and more ridging for us or north of us over S Canada to finish out Sept.

[tron777]

JB's winter outlook from WeatherBell that came out 9/5:

[Bgoney]

Can’t believe you made we watch a JB video Les. Much of long range modeling showing favorable winter 500mb patterns for some or most of winter, so we know he certainly won’t disagree with that. Not big on the analog years that are showing up pre 1990, not in the same climate zip code for those to happen, but pieces of some of those 2000s, 2010s winters could be achievable

[tron777]

Can’t believe you made we watch a JB video Les. Much of long range modeling showing favorable winter 500mb patterns for some or most of winter, so we know he certainly won’t disagree with that. Not big on the analog years that are showing up pre 1990, not in the same climate zip code for those to happen, but pieces of some of those 2000s, 2010s winters could be achievable

There's a first time for everything! I totally agree with the usage of analogs. They just don't work the same way that they used too because of what you just posted. Even shades of those nice winters would give us opportunities for sure and that's all you can really ask for. I think that the STJ will start to get active once we roll into October as well as some decent shots of cold air. But then I do think that December still looks mild, with an improving January. Feb and Mar look wonderful on the modeling at this time. So for now, I don't really have much change to my thinking on how this winter will go month by month.

[Bgoney]

Can’t believe you made we watch a JB video Les. Much of long range modeling showing favorable winter 500mb patterns for some or most of winter, so we know he certainly won’t disagree with that. Not big on the analog years that are showing up pre 1990, not in the same climate zip code for those to happen, but pieces of some of those 2000s, 2010s winters could be achievable

There's a first time for everything! I totally agree with the usage of analogs. They just don't work the same way that they used too because of what you just posted. Even shades of those nice winters would give us opportunities for sure and that's all you can really ask for. I think that the STJ will start to get active once we roll into October as well as some decent shots of cold air. But then I do think that December still looks mild, with an improving January. Feb and Mar look wonderful on the modeling at this time. So for now, I don't really have much change to my thinking on how this winter will go month by month.

Caught me in a weakened state of mind, it probably won’t happen again. Appreciate all longterm forecast, some more than others. So many things to throw curves into a 3,4,5 month outlook. One screwball I think is on the table is one or two , even possibly 3 recurving typhoons with how warm the SSTs are off of Japan. 6+ C anomalies, I think it’s inevitable we see at least one . In late fall early winter this can make or break a descent looking wintry pattern

[tron777]

Can’t believe you made we watch a JB video Les. Much of long range modeling showing favorable winter 500mb patterns for some or most of winter, so we know he certainly won’t disagree with that. Not big on the analog years that are showing up pre 1990, not in the same climate zip code for those to happen, but pieces of some of those 2000s, 2010s winters could be achievable

There's a first time for everything! I totally agree with the usage of analogs. They just don't work the same way that they used too because of what you just posted. Even shades of those nice winters would give us opportunities for sure and that's all you can really ask for. I think that the STJ will start to get active once we roll into October as well as some decent shots of cold air. But then I do think that December still looks mild, with an improving January. Feb and Mar look wonderful on the modeling at this time. So for now, I don't really have much change to my thinking on how this winter will go month by month.

Caught me in a weakened state of mind, it probably won’t happen again. Appreciate all longterm forecast, some more than others. So many things to throw curves into a 3,4,5 month outlook. One screwball I think is on the table is one or two , even possibly 3 recurving typhoons with how warm the SSTs are off of Japan. 6+ C anomalies, I think it’s inevitable we see at least one . In late fall early winter this can make or break a descent looking wintry pattern

Absolutely. In addition, I think some of the curve balls will be the +IOD. We've seen that screw us before providing a record -PNA and big time -PDO. This all occurred during a La Nina ENSO state. Now that we have an El Nino with a +IOD, what is going to happen there? The end result is bound to be different right? We'll see... the SST's in the North Pacific are better then we have seen especially in the PDO region. Plenty of time however to see that look hold or even change.

[winterstormjoe]

New JAMSTEC run is out for September and it looks pretty good. We have the Euro Seasonal, CANSIPS, JMA, and Jamstec all showing a decent wintrer upcoming. UKMET is much warmer then normal but so far it's an outlier. Everything should be taken with a grain of salt until we see the November runs of these models anyway. But, it's a weather forum so we talk about it.


JamstecTemps.png


JamstecPrecip.png

Wow, there sure is a lot of red and orange on that first image in the northern hemisphere with just the eastern half of the US in a little blue!

[tron777]

New JAMSTEC run is out for September and it looks pretty good. We have the Euro Seasonal, CANSIPS, JMA, and Jamstec all showing a decent wintrer upcoming. UKMET is much warmer then normal but so far it's an outlier. Everything should be taken with a grain of salt until we see the November runs of these models anyway. But, it's a weather forum so we talk about it.


JamstecTemps.png


JamstecPrecip.png

Wow, there sure is a lot of red and orange on that first image in the northern hemisphere with just the eastern half of the US in a little blue!

Lots of blocking! One thing that JB did say in his video which I actually agree with is that we need to see more ridging over Western Canada to lock in the Eastern US trough where it needs to be for us. If the ridging is over the Aleutians, that is no good since the trough locks into the West. Having blocking near Greenland only works well when the Pacific is in a corporative state, otherwise blocking can lock in a crap pattern too. The ridging over Western Canada has been lacking unfortunately for the last several winters. We shall see what happens when we get closer to winter.

[winterstormjoe]

New JAMSTEC run is out for September and it looks pretty good. We have the Euro Seasonal, CANSIPS, JMA, and Jamstec all showing a decent wintrer upcoming. UKMET is much warmer then normal but so far it's an outlier. Everything should be taken with a grain of salt until we see the November runs of these models anyway. But, it's a weather forum so we talk about it.


JamstecTemps.png


JamstecPrecip.png

Wow, there sure is a lot of red and orange on that first image in the northern hemisphere with just the eastern half of the US in a little blue!

Lots of blocking! One thing that JB did say in his video which I actually agree with is that we need to see more ridging over Western Canada to lock in the Eastern US trough where it needs to be for us. If the ridging is over the Aleutians, that is no good since the trough locks into the West. Having blocking near Greenland only works well when the Pacific is in a corporative state, otherwise blocking can lock in a crap pattern too. The ridging over Western Canada has been lacking unfortunately for the last several winters. We shall see what happens when we get closer to winter.

Thanks for the explanation Les, I'll check out his video after work. We do have something different happening this winter and it's called El Nino as opposed to La Nina. So, we'll see!

[tron777]

New JAMSTEC run is out for September and it looks pretty good. We have the Euro Seasonal, CANSIPS, JMA, and Jamstec all showing a decent wintrer upcoming. UKMET is much warmer then normal but so far it's an outlier. Everything should be taken with a grain of salt until we see the November runs of these models anyway. But, it's a weather forum so we talk about it.


JamstecTemps.png


JamstecPrecip.png

Wow, there sure is a lot of red and orange on that first image in the northern hemisphere with just the eastern half of the US in a little blue!

Lots of blocking! One thing that JB did say in his video which I actually agree with is that we need to see more ridging over Western Canada to lock in the Eastern US trough where it needs to be for us. If the ridging is over the Aleutians, that is no good since the trough locks into the West. Having blocking near Greenland only works well when the Pacific is in a corporative state, otherwise blocking can lock in a crap pattern too. The ridging over Western Canada has been lacking unfortunately for the last several winters. We shall see what happens when we get closer to winter.

Thanks for the explanation Les, I'll check out his video after work. We do have something different happening this winter and it's called El Nino as opposed to La Nina. So, we'll see!

Definitely Joe. Hopefully we'll see something good and not a La Nina hangover.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and since the weather is really on the boring side at the moment good to take a look at what folks are seeing with the El Nino. Again way to early imo to give a decent forecast for the winter but like has been mentioned the models are showing quite a bit of blocking which is one thing we love to see in the winter. The strength of the El Nino is another key and of course where the warmer waters are located. We changed from a La Nina to a El Nino rather quickly and that is rather rare because the waters got really warm really fast. Maybe that is why some models are showing a very strong El Nino. I am not sold on that because so much energy at first to get the waters very warm is hard to keep that at the same level.

I am going in between so a moderate one seems to be in the cards. Easy way out lol but that seems like a good forecast. Will the warmest of waters remain near South America or move west. Most models show a westward movement of the warmer waters and that is good if it occurs. Analogs are a tool but like Bgoney mentioned we are in a different environment than some of those so we need to be careful. JB has some interesting thoughts and to me it really is about volcanoes in the oceans and especially around western South American coast. I believe we are learning more and more about ocean temps and though the sun provides enough energy to keep them warm waters around the equator I believe the volcanoes do have a rather larger impact on ocean temps in a more localized area.

This subject will become very busy in about a month or so and hopefully we are seeing more signs that helps in getting out a better forecast for the winter.

[tron777]

The warming of this El Nino has halted for the last 3 weeks. Per the latest U wind anomalies and forecast to the end of the month (see image below) this looks to continue with the trades staying put with no westerlies to induce more warming. It is very rare for an ENSO event to peak this early. You typically will see another surge as we get deeper into Autumn. If this is the case, then MEI will only register a borderline weak to moderate El Nino so a lot of forecasts for the winter will need to be changed. We will need to depend on something else for help if the tropical forcing becomes more variable. Hope to see the blocking assist as well as a +PNA for a change. We'll see!

UwindAnom.gif

[tron777]

NOAA has released their winter outlook and the below map looks like your typical strong El Nino to me with a warmer then normal across the north and near or below normal over the south due to the STJ.

[tpweather]

NOAA has released their winter outlook and the below map looks like your typical strong El Nino to me with a warmer then normal across the north and near or below normal over the south due to the STJ.

Wow plenty of effort with that outlook lol.

[tron777]

NOAA has released their winter outlook and the below map looks like your typical strong El Nino to me with a warmer then normal across the north and near or below normal over the south due to the STJ.

Wow plenty of effort with that outlook lol.

Nothing but the best from our Govt!

[Phr0z3n]

Hey guys how is everyone doing? Hopefully everyone has had an awesome summer. I wanted to mention some preliminary things that I’m seeing that I wanted to share.
Upper ocean heat content anomalies are looking real good to hopefully keep El Niño moderate

IMG_0296.png

I always like this indice because it definitively shows the effects of Mjo induced warming on the Nino regions.
The other thing I noticed is North American snow cover is advancing at a rate we haven’t seen since 2018. I hope that trend continues as some are hinting at a possible early start to snowfall.
I really like how the qbo is taking shape as it looks like qbo 30 mb are anomalously easterly and qbo 50 mb are westerly.

IMG_0297.png

Easterly QBO’s are generally a better transport for warming from the tropics poleward for better blocking and -nao scenarios. All in all not a bad start to monitoring indices.

[tron777]

Hey Phr0z3n! Always glad to see your posts. What are your thoughts on the tropical forcing for El Nino? It is expected to shift towards the West as time goes on which is good. Preferably, we'd like to see it near or West of the Date Line in the West Pac. If it is East Based, that is usually never good for the Eastern US for cold and snow lovers.

The -QBO is looking good. If I recall, at 30 MB it was at -9.88 for Sept.