Atlantic Hurricane Season 2023

[tpweather]

Franklin has winds of 65 mph moving ENE at 5. IT will become a hurricane soon and even a major is possible. Still expecting no CONUS impacts and Bermuda is about the only land mass that I see that could feel its effects.

The other big ticket item is a wave moving N into the Gulf. A high chance of development and we should see a depression form this weekend. Gulf Coast folks and FL folks need to keep an eye on this system for sure.

Great Post Les. The Atlantic looks sad and not much off the African coast. Sure there will be some deep moisture headed into the southeast later next week even if a storm did not form. Many times its the strong tropical storm or weak Hurricane that brings the most rainfall but when this system forms and heads north/northeast it looks like enough sheer plus it looks like it will hook up with the jet and move it off the coast.

[tron777]

Franklin has winds of 65 mph moving ENE at 5. IT will become a hurricane soon and even a major is possible. Still expecting no CONUS impacts and Bermuda is about the only land mass that I see that could feel its effects.

The other big ticket item is a wave moving N into the Gulf. A high chance of development and we should see a depression form this weekend. Gulf Coast folks and FL folks need to keep an eye on this system for sure.

Great Post Les. The Atlantic looks sad and not much off the African coast. Sure there will be some deep moisture headed into the southeast later next week even if a storm did not form. Many times its the strong tropical storm or weak Hurricane that brings the most rainfall but when this system forms and heads north/northeast it looks like enough sheer plus it looks like it will hook up with the jet and move it off the coast.

Thanks Tim! Due to the continued fronts dropping into our area (aka trough), I would expect the Gulf system to miss us well to the SE as far as any rainfall from it is concerned.

[tpweather]

Hey Les and not throwing out rain chances just yet on the tropical system. Models did not handled rainfall this past week at all and early in the week many models had us with almost no chance of rain but lucky we know better on this forum. Latest Nam is moving the system a tad further west so lets see that the gfs,euro and cmc show today. One reason I see a more westward move is Franklin and even by Tuesday that system is still west of Bermuda and that slow movement may keep the new system a tad further west. At the moment I can see Florida,Georgia and the Carolina's as a prime spot but not ruling out a further west track which could give Alabama,eastern Tn and Ky and southern apps. Next 24 hours should give us a better ideal on the track but and though the models have been showing the fronts aka trough this week they seem to be sort of backing off just a hair and keeping the troughs at bay somewhat which in late August is something that happens quite often.

[tron777]

The overnight Gefs and Op GFS (0z). were the furthest west actually bringing in rain to the OV. Considering the GFSs track record this summer I find it highly suspect.

[tron777]

Franklin is now a hurricane with winds of 85 mph moving NNW at 8. A major hurricane is expected by tomorrow night. Watching Bermuda and there will also be high surf and rip currents along the entire East ?Coast of the US.

TD 10 has now formed with winds of 30 mph. It is stationary at this time in the Straight (between the Yucatan Penn and Cuba). This thing should start moving in the next 12 to 24 hours and also become TS Idalia probably sometime tomorrow. It is excepted to become a hurricane per the NHC by Tuesday. A lot of Pro Mets out there think that the NHC is way low on their intensity forecast. I've heard of some calls of a Cat 3 maybe a low end 4 prior to landfall. The Gulf has low wind shear and SST's are like bath water so it wouldn't shock me to be honest. Current NHC forecast has a FL Panhandle landfall Wed morning. I don't have a problem with their current track but the intensity forecast could be on the low side. We shall see!

[young pup]

I’m watching soon to be Idilia very closely. Supposed to be in the panhandle next weekend. Told my sister to plan on not going. Looks like a landfall close to Panama City Beach area. A few years ago one took out Mexico Beach just East of there. They still have not fully recovered.

[tron777]

Franklin has winds of 90 mph this morning moving NW at 8. A cat 3, maybe even a low end 4 is possible with this system. Other then Bermuda potentially seeing some impacts from this, we are not concerned about the East Coast minus waves and rip currents of course.

TD 10 is moving S at 5 mph with winds of 35 mph. NHC advisory:

Tropical Depression Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
700 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 86.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

I still expect a hurricane by Tues and a possible major before it makes landfall over the FL panhandle by Wed night or early Thurs. I still like the NHC track missing us completely to the SE with this storm.

[tron777]

I’m watching soon to be Idilia very closely. Supposed to be in the panhandle next weekend. Told my sister to plan on not going. Looks like a landfall close to Panama City Beach area. A few years ago one took out Mexico Beach just East of there. They still have not fully recovered.

That's a good call JP! This system I still believe is going to be stronger at landfall then what the NHC has. They are slowly getting on board though. Last night, they had it maxing out at 75 mph and this morning, 90 mph.

[tron777]

In fact folks... Let me make a separate thread for TD 10 because it is definitely going to have CONUS impacts.

New Thread: https://absolutevorticity.com/viewtopic.php?t=264

[tpweather]

Good Morning and the hurricane season has ramped up somewhat but still well below normal in terms of storms as we get closer to the peak and really looking down the road I don't see any big uptick. The western Pacific is getting busy and we know the past several years this has not been the case.

Concerning the two systems near the USA. Franklin is just dancing around in the western Atlantic and the forecast has it going west of Bermuda before the trough to the north sweeps it northeastward. This is key in concerns to the tropical system that is likely to form and head towards the southeast USA. Again most likely outcome is Franklin gets swept away and the new system hits Northern Florida and then up to the Carolina's. However, if Franklin does not hook up with the trough the new system will no doubt be further west. As we know models take in info from the past then try and throw out the correct answer. Many times this works out fine but sometimes the current weather pattern may be somewhat different and the models miss the exact track. At this moment I would probably go with an 85p/c chance it does what the modeling is showing but I still have 15p/c that its further west because of what I mentioned before.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! I would love to see that 15% chance come true to get some rainfall out of it or at least some clouds to keep temps around here in check. But since odds favor otherwise, this is probably the reason that the warmth is coming back to the OV Labor Day weekend. Once the tropics are done (whenever that is), Fall should be able to take over.

[young pup]

I’m watching soon to be Idilia very closely. Supposed to be in the panhandle next weekend. Told my sister to plan on not going. Looks like a landfall close to Panama City Beach area. A few years ago one took out Mexico Beach just East of there. They still have not fully recovered.

That's a good call JP! This system I still believe is going to be stronger at landfall then what the NHC has. They are slowly getting on board though. Last night, they had it maxing out at 75 mph and this morning, 90 mph.

Thanks Les. Stupid spell check on my end. It had Itailian at first then I changed it. Then it changed it again. Idalia I'm watching you.

[tron777]

Franklin has winds of 145 mph as of the 9am update moving NNW at 8.

Hurricane Franklin Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
900 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...FRANKLIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that
Hurricane Franklin is rapidly intensifying. The maximum winds are
estimated to be 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum
central pressure has decreased to 937 mb. The next full advisory on
Franklin will be at 11AM EDT (1500 UTC), and the intensity forecast
at that time will be increased from the previous advisory given the
ongoing rapid intensification.

SUMMARY OF 0900 AM...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 70.9W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

[tron777]

Franklin maxed out yesterday at 150 mph. Today, he is down to 130 mph moving NNE at 12. Radar out of Bermuda....


http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.as ... 0SRI&user=


Not much to see yet until Franklin gets a little closer.

We also have TD 11 now with winds of 35 mph moving N at 2 mph. This system is a weak piece of junk that the NHC is going to name soon. It won't be around long and it also will not bother any land areas.

We also have a new wave coming off of Africa that has a 50% chance to develop in the next 5 days.

[tron777]

Franklin continues to weaken with winds of 110 mph this morning. He will pass to the north of Bermuda so they are on the good side, or south side of the storm. Only TS winds are expected there and they are used to dealing with tropical systems on that island.

TD 11 is still a weak POS and always will be. It probably won't even get a name from the name happy NHC.

Finally, the wave that came off of Africa the other day, now near the Cape Verde Islands has a 60% chance in the next 5 days. This one could turn into our next named storm but it should likely remain a fish storm and turn to the NE over the Central Atlantic in time.

[tron777]

Franklin still has winds at 100 mph this morning moving ENE at 15 mph. this one will continue moving away out to sea and the leftovers could impact the UK next week as an extra tropical storm.

TD 11 was named TS Jose (as if we shouldn't be surprised... UGH) This weak POS has winds of 40 mph moving N at 5 mph. It will weaken into a depression again tomorrow and then pretty much be gone. So here is another named system that won't last for 24 hours. *Sigh*

The wave near the Cape Verde Islands now has a 70% chance at development and a depression should form in the next day or two.

[tron777]

Franklin is down to 80 mph moving ENE at 18 mph. TS Jose is moving north at 16 mph and Franklin is likely to absorb this system in the next 24 hours or so. The Ghost of TS Gert has come back now as a TD with winds of 35 mph moving east at 8 mph. This one will turn more N and then be gone in a few days and not bother any land areas. Finally... the African Wave should become our next TD about anytime now.

[tron777]

We now have TD 12 with winds of 35 mph moving NNW at 8. This one should become a TS but remain on the weak side. It also will not bother any and areas either. It'll probably be gone by next week anyway.

Of more interest is a new tropical wave that is much further south in latitude then all the others have been. These southern riders always need to be watched. It is about to come off the coast of Africa now and already has a 50% chance in the next 5-7 days of development.

[tron777]

On the tropical weather map this morning we still have weak POS TS Gert with winds of 45 mph moving NE at 2. This one should be gone by Labor Day. TD 11 is now TS Katia with winds of 40 mph moving NNW at 13. This one may also be gone by Labor Day.

Finally, our southern low rider tropical wave has a 70% chance of development over the next 5-7 days.

[tron777]

Gert has winds of 60 mph this morning. It will turn north and go bye bye in the coming days. Katia will meander around and do nothing. It is barely holding on. The southern slider still has an 80% chance in the next 5 days.

[tron777]

Gert is down to 50 mph now. Katia is just a TD with winds at 30 mph.

The only game in town is the southern slider with odds of 70 / 90%. This one will get a name soon and become a hurricane in time. Forecast models have it tracking N of Puerto Rico by this coming weekend and somewhere off the SE US Coast next week. Does it get deflected out to sea or does it make some sort of impact along the East Coast? We shall see! IOT is all about timing between an incoming trough over the East and the angle of approach / speed that this tropical system will take.

[tpweather]

Gert is down to 50 mph now. Katia is just a TD with winds at 30 mph.

The only game in town is the southern slider with odds of 70 / 90%. This one will get a name soon and become a hurricane in time. Forecast models have it tracking N of Puerto Rico by this coming weekend and somewhere off the SE US Coast next week. Does it get deflected out to sea or does it make some sort of impact along the East Coast? We shall see! IOT is all about timing between an incoming trough over the East and the angle of approach / speed that this tropical system will take.

This one imo has some merit to be a nice hurricane. Still plenty of warm waters and the sheer should limited. Where it ends up like Les mentioned is still up in the air but most likely it will miss the mainland USA. If somehow it remained further south this would no doubt change the upcoming pattern for several days but at this moment I am not seeing that happening.

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2023

...TROPICAL STORM LEE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 41.8W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[MVWxObserver]

Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2023

...TROPICAL STORM LEE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 41.8W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

Is Lee forecast to go near the Leeward Islands e.g.?

[tron777]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 13.2N 41.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 13.7N 43.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 14.4N 46.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 15.2N 48.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 16.2N 51.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 17.2N 53.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 18.3N 56.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 20.4N 60.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 22.2N 64.3W 125 KT 145 MPH