El Nino, The 2023-2024 Winter, and You!

[tron777]

Latest modeling update on El Nino from the IRI folks, show the Nino peaking in December at +2.07 which would be a Super Nino!


https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table


Again, we need to see where the forcing sets up shop for the winter season. That is going to either make us or break us. If we can see it become more central or West based... even basin wide, we may come out ok. If it's East based though, get ready for another mild winter. That is kind of how my line of thinking currently is,

The July run from the JAMSTEC seasonal model looked pretty good for the upcoming winter, because the Nino goes from East based to more of a Centralized look with the warmest SST's. In other words, the warmer SST's get pushed Westward as the winter season goes on. That is what we need to have happen as this model run shows. I have not seen the August update yet, so check back on the link below for future updates.


https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sinte ... tlook.html

[tpweather]

Well what is El Nino going to do this fall and winter. No ideal but it looks the models are trying on average to get us a low-middle end episode. Will need to watch over the next few months. Locally it does help if the warmer waters move further west but there are many other factors as we know in trying to have one item dictate the weather. Blocking is so key for us and without that much harder to get a decent winter in terms of snow. Usually and area to the south that gets above normal rainfall during the winter but there always seems to be an area just to the north of the heavier precip where its very dry. Something to watch as we get closer.

[tron777]

This Nino is forecast to become pretty strong and we don't usually do well in Strong Nino's. However, once again, I still think the forcing is where it's at more so then the actual strength of the ENSO event. Watch the below animation. It is definitely East based for sure and we don't want that at all. Watch the last couple of frames towards the end of the animation. To me, it looks like it is beginning to potentially start shifting westward. We'll need to see over the next month if that is a blip or a real trend. Let's hope it is a real trend.

wkxzteq_anm.gif

[tpweather]

This Nino is forecast to become pretty strong and we don't usually do well in Strong Nino's. However, once again, I still think the forcing is where it's at more so then the actual strength of the ENSO event. Watch the below animation. It is definitely East based for sure and we don't want that at all. Watch the last couple of frames towards the end of the animation. To me, it looks like it is beginning to potentially start shifting westward. We'll need to see over the next month if that is a blip or a real trend. Let's hope it is a real trend.


wkxzteq_anm.gif

Great Post Les!!! When does it peak is also key in the winter forecast. I would love to see it peak in November myself and then head back to neutral. Usually if we get a strong one and its towards the S A coast then to much warmth is pump into the eastern part of the country. That does tend favor the southeast with tons of rain and lower temps because of the clouds and we sort of go back and forth and hopefully the timing is correct for us to get a few decent storms. Again blocking is key and that is not known to far in advance.

[tron777]

This Nino is forecast to become pretty strong and we don't usually do well in Strong Nino's. However, once again, I still think the forcing is where it's at more so then the actual strength of the ENSO event. Watch the below animation. It is definitely East based for sure and we don't want that at all. Watch the last couple of frames towards the end of the animation. To me, it looks like it is beginning to potentially start shifting westward. We'll need to see over the next month if that is a blip or a real trend. Let's hope it is a real trend.


wkxzteq_anm.gif

Great Post Les!!! When does it peak is also key in the winter forecast. I would love to see it peak in November myself and then head back to neutral. Usually if we get a strong one and its towards the S A coast then to much warmth is pump into the eastern part of the country. That does tend favor the southeast with tons of rain and lower temps because of the clouds and we sort of go back and forth and hopefully the timing is correct for us to get a few decent storms. Again blocking is key and that is not known to far in advance.

Exactly Tim. Our concerns are forcing, then strength then the peak. A typical ENSO event usually peaks in December. We don't yet know of course when that will be so just generalizing things at this time until we know more down the road. Right now, proceed with caution. If you want to forecast mild and wet for this winter, I wouldn't blame you. The good news is... we are coming upon September and much can change in the next 3 months. Tons of time for us to watch how this El Nino behaves. I'd love to see the PDO turn more neutral / weakly positive but I'm not so sure that is going to happen since it's been stuck in the negative phase for several years now. As you mentioned blocking in the Arctic regions is also key. We'll see how the PV responds as well as it should be strengthening soon (since it is weaker in the summer months).

[tron777]

The Japanese seasonal model (JAMSTEC) has updated for the August run. You can see all of the info here:

https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sinte ... tlook.html

I looked at it for the winter and it has normal to slightly above in our SE counties for precip and normal temps for the OV. I would be good with that to be honest. It has the Niño shifting west in time which is one of the things we needed to happen in order to have a chance at success (in the cold and snow dept) this winter. It also had a moderate peak and not strong which I thought was interesting. I kind of don't buy that attm as I think we'll be dealing with a Strong Nino this winter. That is why I am hitting the forcing aspect much harder then the actual intensity.

[tron777]

The Old Farmer's Almanac's winter forecast is out and get ready to LOL! Seriously LOL!

https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended ... rs-almanac

LOLComeOnMan.jpg

[tpweather]

The Old Farmer's Almanac's winter forecast is out and get ready to LOL! Seriously LOL!

https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended ... rs-almanac



LOLComeOnMan.jpg

That is perfect for 1976-77 and 77-78. I say its good

[tron777]

The Old Farmer's Almanac's winter forecast is out and get ready to LOL! Seriously LOL!

https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended ... rs-almanac



LOLComeOnMan.jpg

That is perfect for 1976-77 and 77-78. I say its good

You've got to love the click bait Tim!

[tpweather]

The Old Farmer's Almanac's winter forecast is out and get ready to LOL! Seriously LOL!

https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended ... rs-almanac



LOLComeOnMan.jpg

That is perfect for 1976-77 and 77-78. I say its good

You've got to love the click bait Tim!

No doubt Les and it will sell or at least get folks talking

[winterstormjoe]

The Old Farmer's Almanac's winter forecast is out and get ready to LOL! Seriously LOL!

https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended ... rs-almanac



LOLComeOnMan.jpg

That is perfect for 1976-77 and 77-78. I say its good

You've got to love the click bait Tim!

No doubt Les and it will sell or at least get folks talking

Oh my, no global warming here. Are these folks seeing the PV settle in to the lower 48 most of the winter? Don't answer this question, I'm joking! LOL

[tron777]

Some weather folklore for you all... my big oak tree is producing a bunch of acorns right now and they are about twice the size that they usually are. Are we in for a cold and snowy winter or do we get what we have been seeing over the last few winters? Stay tuned...

[tron777]

This should get us snow weenies in the mood despite the next round of heat coming in soon.

[tpweather]

This should get us snow weenies in the mood despite the next round of heat coming in soon.

Love seeing that Les. Not sure if this is earlier than normal but would not be surprised at all as the northeast as been rather cool much of the summer

[tron777]

This should get us snow weenies in the mood despite the next round of heat coming in soon.

Love seeing that Les. Not sure if this is earlier than normal but would not be surprised at all as the northeast as been rather cool much of the summer

Me too Tim! I an not sure of their climo like I am about ours here in the OV, but I totally agree. It does make perfect sense for the reason you have stated.

[tron777]

Folks... Below is a wonderful article that I highly suggest that you take the time to read. It is long. It is chalk full of great information on El Nino, its potential impacts on the winter, and even a mention of the PV towards the end. It also has some of the climate model images in there, some of which I have already posted in this thread for August. Some of this info won't be new to you but some of it might be. Grab a coffee, a beer, or whatever your beverage of choice is and click on the link below:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-rang ... europe-fa/

[tron777]

Great Googly Moogly! Check out the blocking being shown on the New CAN Sips run for September for the upcoming winter.

NEW CAN SIPS.png

Month by month is below:

[Wxlrnr]

Folks... Below is a wonderful article that I highly suggest that you take the time to read. It is long. It is chalk full of great information on El Nino, its potential impacts on the winter, and even a mention of the PV towards the end. It also has some of the climate model images in there, some of which I have already posted in this thread for August. Some of this info won't be new to you but some of it might be. Grab a coffee, a beer, or whatever your beverage of choice is and click on the link below:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-rang ... europe-fa/

Wow! Very nicely ties a lot of concepts together. Thank you for posting this.

[tron777]

Folks... Below is a wonderful article that I highly suggest that you take the time to read. It is long. It is chalk full of great information on El Nino, its potential impacts on the winter, and even a mention of the PV towards the end. It also has some of the climate model images in there, some of which I have already posted in this thread for August. Some of this info won't be new to you but some of it might be. Grab a coffee, a beer, or whatever your beverage of choice is and click on the link below:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-rang ... europe-fa/

Wow! Very nicely ties a lot of concepts together. Thank you for posting this.

No problem! I hope everyone got a chance to read it.

[dce]

Couldn't help but post, JB is the ultimate optimist on a cold winter no matter what! Lol!

[tpweather]

Couldn't help but post, JB is the ultimate optimist on a cold winter no matter what! Lol!

If the blocking some of the models show then no doubt we could see a nice winter. The problem is we are several months away from knowing that plus will the warmer waters head west over the next few months as well. No doubt a different pattern than last year but we still have a few months before things really start getting into place. Even then we know a great pattern can change on a dime so many unknowns. Last season after the blizzard the winter was mainly a dud and then got cold in the spring.

[tron777]

We had some blocking last year but it helped to keep the junk pattern in place. The Pacific is way important probably even a little more so then the blocking. You need a good Pacific pattern for the troughs and ridges to be aligned the right way for the OV, then get the blocking to keep things locked in place. That is what the mid 1970s winters did. 2009-2010 another great one being tossed around. Then you have 2013-2014 where there was no blocking but you had a persistent -EPO which drove the bus (along with a nice feedback from the +PDO) That is what I mean by a good Pacific.

I'd like to see the PDO start rising. These strings of -PDO have been overwhelming the pattern and causing massive -PNA's the last few winters. You'd expect it with La Nina. Let's hope the PDO improves since we're getting into a Nino now.

[MVWxObserver]

Couldn't help but post, JB is the ultimate optimist on a cold winter no matter what! Lol!

If the blocking some of the models show then no doubt we could see a nice winter. The problem is we are several months away from knowing that plus will the warmer waters head west over the next few months as well. No doubt a different pattern than last year but we still have a few months before things really start getting into place. Even then we know a great pattern can change on a dime so many unknowns. Last season after the blizzard the winter was mainly a dud and then got cold in the spring.

Hi Tim,

Last year's pre-Christmas blizzard will always be memorable for myself e.g. as our Rumpke crew hit the routes predawn on that Fri and while in bed I heard a loud thud from outside at around 3 or 4 AM. I went and peeked through a garage door window and sure enough a gust of wind had caught our empty curbside trash cart and sent it "flying" a few feet down the road and half on the grass / half on the road at the curb near a neighbor's house. Also a plow truck blade going by must have torn off a wheel from the cart as it (the missing wheel) compounded the effort trying to get the cart back to the house and into the corner of the garage. I was in my PJ's and all bundled up and probably was quite a sight under those roadside lights! Several weeks later a new cart finally arrived.

My folks and I will be moving into a catalpa-style house at a retirement community village neighborhood by Oct 1st also here in Greenville and residents there take city-issued trash bags to a certain point area there in the 'hood for pickup by Rumpke. So no more cart usage. We will have our closing on Sept 20th.

[tpweather]

Couldn't help but post, JB is the ultimate optimist on a cold winter no matter what! Lol!

If the blocking some of the models show then no doubt we could see a nice winter. The problem is we are several months away from knowing that plus will the warmer waters head west over the next few months as well. No doubt a different pattern than last year but we still have a few months before things really start getting into place. Even then we know a great pattern can change on a dime so many unknowns. Last season after the blizzard the winter was mainly a dud and then got cold in the spring.

Hi Tim,

Last year's pre-Christmas blizzard will always be memorable for myself e.g. as our Rumpke crew hit the routes predawn on that Fri and while in bed I heard a loud thud from outside at around 3 or 4 AM. I went and peeked through a garage door window and sure enough a gust of wind had caught our empty curbside trash cart and sent it "flying" a few feet down the road and half on the grass / half on the road at the curb near a neighbor's house. Also a plow truck blade going by must have torn off a wheel from the cart as it (the missing wheel) compounded effort trying to get the cart back to house and into the corner of the garage. I was in my PJ's and all bundled up and probably was quite a sight under those roadside lights! Several weeks later a new cart finally arrived.

My folks and I will be moving into a catalpa-style house at a retirement community village neighborhood by Oct 1st also here in Greenville and residents there take city-issued trash bags to a certain point area there in the 'hood for pickup by Rumpke. So no more cart usage. We will have our closing on Sept 20th.

Hi Eric, I hope you and your parents have a safe move and one that makes everyone happy. Please keep us updated on the move if you don't mind. Moving is never fun but hopefully everything runs smooth.

[MVWxObserver]

Couldn't help but post, JB is the ultimate optimist on a cold winter no matter what! Lol!

If the blocking some of the models show then no doubt we could see a nice winter. The problem is we are several months away from knowing that plus will the warmer waters head west over the next few months as well. No doubt a different pattern than last year but we still have a few months before things really start getting into place. Even then we know a great pattern can change on a dime so many unknowns. Last season after the blizzard the winter was mainly a dud and then got cold in the spring.

Hi Tim,

Last year's pre-Christmas blizzard will always be memorable for myself e.g. as our Rumpke crew hit the routes predawn on that Fri and while in bed I heard a loud thud from outside at around 3 or 4 AM. I went and peeked through a garage door window and sure enough a gust of wind had caught our empty curbside trash cart and sent it "flying" a few feet down the road and half on the grass / half on the road at the curb near a neighbor's house. Also a plow truck blade going by must have torn off a wheel from the cart as it (the missing wheel) compounded effort trying to get the cart back to house and into the corner of the garage. I was in my PJ's and all bundled up and probably was quite a sight under those roadside lights! Several weeks later a new cart finally arrived.

My folks and I will be moving into a catalpa-style house at a retirement community village neighborhood by Oct 1st also here in Greenville and residents there take city-issued trash bags to a certain point area there in the 'hood for pickup by Rumpke. So no more cart usage. We will have our closing on Sept 20th.

Hi Eric, I hope you and your parents have a safe move and one that makes everyone happy. Please keep us updated on the move if you don't mind. Moving is never fun but hopefully everything runs smooth.

Hi Tim, I've moved so many times in my life that I've felt at times like a military brat lol. I've lived in Anderson, IN (my birthplace and Dad's birthplace and native city and where he grew up), Cranston, RI (sister was born in capital of Providence), Cincinnati, Hamilton, OH, Middletown, NY (about 45 minutes to an hr from NYC), Roanoke Rapids, NC, Raleigh, NC, and Greenville, OH.

We're very happy and excited as this will be the last major move of our lives. Will do bro.