Eastern and Central Pacific Hurricane Season Discussion

[tron777]

Hilary has winds of 145 mph this morning. She will weaken in time as she heads towards California. It is even possible that Hilary remains a TS all the way into Nevada which has NEVER happened before in recorded US History. Wouldn't that be something!

[MVWxObserver]

Hilary has winds of 145 mph this morning. She will weaken in time as she heads towards California. It is even possible that Hilary remains a TS all the way into Nevada which has NEVER happened before in recorded US History. Wouldn't that be something!

Hellery the Hildebeast!!

Clinton has a 'cane named for her minus a double L!

[tron777]

Hilary has winds of 145 mph this morning. She will weaken in time as she heads towards California. It is even possible that Hilary remains a TS all the way into Nevada which has NEVER happened before in recorded US History. Wouldn't that be something!

Hellery the Hildebeast!!

Clinton has a 'cane named for her minus a double L!

Maybe she'll move further north and west and visit San Fran. In all seriousness, this storm is going to cause a lot of issues for the Western US since the mountainous areas and desert areas are prone to mudslides and flash flooding when you get heavy rain like what is coming, in a short amount of time.

[MVWxObserver]

Hilary has winds of 145 mph this morning. She will weaken in time as she heads towards California. It is even possible that Hilary remains a TS all the way into Nevada which has NEVER happened before in recorded US History. Wouldn't that be something!

Hellery the Hildebeast!!

Clinton has a 'cane named for her minus a double L!

Maybe she'll move further north and west and visit San Fran. In all seriousness, this storm is going to cause a lot of issues for the Western US since the mountainous areas and desert areas are prone to mudslides and flash flooding when you get heavy rain like what is coming, in a short amount of time.

My folks have some friends from their college days in Indiana who reside in Scottsdale, AZ not far from Phoenix e.g.

The Redlegs will play the Dbacks in AZ from Thurs 8/24 to Sun 8/27, but by then gradual weakening Hilary effects should be waning off there in that state depending on its forward direction and speed.

[tron777]

A snippet from the last advisory:

Based on the forecast, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for
portions of southern California. This is the first time NHC has
issued a watch for that region. Supplemental soundings (weather
balloons) are being launched by much of the National Weather Service
offices across the western U.S. This effort is highly appreciated
as the data should help provide a better assessment of the
environment and steering pattern ahead of Hilary.

[tron777]

Hilary is weakening now with winds down to 130 mph moving WNW at 13. She should make landfall in the next 72 hours with conditions going downhill over the SW US long before the center gets there, probably within 48-60 hours.

[tpweather]

Hilary is weakening now with winds down to 130 mph moving WNW at 13. She should make landfall in the next 72 hours with conditions going downhill over the SW US long before the center gets there, probably within 48-60 hours.

The media is showing this system and they should as it is unusual. I believe the sudden uptick of the El Nino this spring played a huge part in the eastern Pacific. The amount of energy has been located in that area this late spring and summer and we are seeing that with some decent Hurricanes. The waters are well above normal temp wise and that extends off the coast of Southern California though you finally end up in the 70's with water temps the further north you go but that is still way above normal. Heavy rains and mudslides are the biggest concern and yes there will be some strong winds but hopefully they will be dying down once the system gets into the southwest. For parts of the area this makes up for the very late monsoon season though further east in New Mexico still very dry may miss much of this system as well. The system looks to head straight north into southwest Canada which is very unusual for the remains of a hurricane coming from the area this one formed.Then the jet looks to sweep it across southern Canada. This has changed my forecast a little in the extended which I will get to later today.Much more on this system to come but its unusual and some of this will be guess work for the models and yes mets and forecasters alike.

[Bgoney]

A snippet from the last advisory:

Based on the forecast, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for
portions of southern California. This is the first time NHC has
issued a watch for that region. Supplemental soundings (weather
balloons) are being launched by much of the National Weather Service
offices across the western U.S. This effort is highly appreciated
as the data should help provide a better assessment of the
environment and steering pattern ahead of Hilary.

NHC didn't even issue TS watches and warnings I til 1987 and in 1939 if the NHC would have existed there surely would have been TS watches. Rare event indeed but similar events have happened before

[tron777]

A snippet from the last advisory:

Based on the forecast, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for
portions of southern California. This is the first time NHC has
issued a watch for that region. Supplemental soundings (weather
balloons) are being launched by much of the National Weather Service
offices across the western U.S. This effort is highly appreciated
as the data should help provide a better assessment of the
environment and steering pattern ahead of Hilary.

NHC didn't even issue TS watches and warnings I til 1987 and in 1939 if the NHC would have existed there surely would have been TS watches. Rare event indeed but similar events have happened before

Good catch!!! Also, they didn't even start naming systems until 1953.

[tron777]

Hilary is weakening now with winds down to 130 mph moving WNW at 13. She should make landfall in the next 72 hours with conditions going downhill over the SW US long before the center gets there, probably within 48-60 hours.

The media is showing this system and they should as it is unusual. I believe the sudden uptick of the El Nino this spring played a huge part in the eastern Pacific. The amount of energy has been located in that area this late spring and summer and we are seeing that with some decent Hurricanes. The waters are well above normal temp wise and that extends off the coast of Southern California though you finally end up in the 70's with water temps the further north you go but that is still way above normal. Heavy rains and mudslides are the biggest concern and yes there will be some strong winds but hopefully they will be dying down once the system gets into the southwest. For parts of the area this makes up for the very late monsoon season though further east in New Mexico still very dry may miss much of this system as well. The system looks to head straight north into southwest Canada which is very unusual for the remains of a hurricane coming from the area this one formed.Then the jet looks to sweep it across southern Canada. This has changed my forecast a little in the extended which I will get to later today.Much more on this system to come but its unusual and some of this will be guess work for the models and yes mets and forecasters alike.

I agree Tim... heavy rainfall and is impacts are the biggest concerns with this system for sure versus the wind. Flash flooding will be numerous.

[tpweather]

Looks like we are down to a cat 2 which is expected getting into somewhat cooler waters. Also the speed has increased so southern California should expect heavy rains a few hours earlier. Again heavy rainfall in some desert areas is a major concern and also mudslides though this past winter they had a good deal of rainfall so hopefully the vegetation is a littler fuller than normal which could help.

[Bgoney]

Cat 2 atm is being very very generous, historically generous

[tpweather]

Cat 2 atm is being very very generous, historically generous

I agree as we know the Hurricane center can be high or low on the category. I do believe though this is a system we very seldom see in this part of the world and sending tons of rainfall in an area that gets very little is what makes it rare. The winds will die down as it moves north and its moving quite fast at the moment. With the system gaining forward motion as it heads to southwest Canada and then sweeps across southern Canada this may knock down the heat for us by 12-24 hours earlier.

[tron777]

Hilary has winds of 60 mph moving N at 23 mph over the N Baja Penn. Will be crossing the border soon into the deserts of S Cali.

[MVWxObserver]

----

[tron777]

The center of Hilary (what's left of it) is over Western Nevada with winds of 35 mph. This is likely the last tropical update that will be issued for this system.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilary Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...CONTINUED LIFE-THREATENING AND LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY...
...NEXT ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 117.9W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM N OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilary
was located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 117.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 29 mph (46
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. On the
forecast track, the center of post-tropical Hilary will move quickly
across Nevada today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Post-tropical Hilary is forecast to dissipate later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Hilary is expected to produce additional
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated storm total amounts
to 12 inches, across portions of Southern California and Southern
Nevada through today. Continued flash and urban flooding, locally
catastrophic, is expected.

Across portions of Oregon and Idaho, rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches with local maxima to 5 inches are expected through Tuesday
morning, resulting in localized, some significant, flash flooding.

A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center for this storm can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

WIND: Post-tropical Hilary is still expected to produce strong and
gusty winds in and near areas of elevated terrain today.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect portions of the Baja
California Peninsula and southern California through this morning.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Post-tropical Hilary. Future information on this system
can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction
Center beginning at 800 AM PDT, under AWIPS header TCPEP4, WMO
header WTPZ34 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and as Hilary leaves she has left behind a mess. Mainly the high waters that have closed many roads including parts of I-10. Though the storm weaken the heavy rain was always the main concern. San Diego set their all time summer rainfall with this one event and LA saw well over 2 inches of rain. So yes this was rare and this time I give the media credit on reporting on this system. Sort of like getting a snowstorm to hit Orlando and how that would become such a mess.

[tron777]

As of 8:30am this morning.... the below article from Fox 11 news in LA has some rainfall amounts listed.


https://www.foxla.com/news/tropical-sto ... california

[MVWxObserver]

Its strange that I could never find a Hilary rainfall amount from Anaheim, CA. That's where my best friend Ken, since the late 1960s during our Cincy days, resides with his wife Pam. He's a care ministry pastor in Yorba Linda, CA.

[tron777]

There is a wave off the Mexican Coast that has a 40% chance in the next couple of days of development. An 80% chance in the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

[tron777]

Two waves to keep an eye on off of Mexico. Both have a 50-70% chance to develop in the next 3-5 days.

[tron777]

The wave closest to Mexico is weakening and may not develop. The other one well to its West looks to be the one that will develop. It now has an 80-90% chance.

[tron777]

TD 10 E is now born with winds of 35 mph. It is moving WNW at 12 mph. This system won't bother any land areas and it looks to become a TS shortly but remain so until it moves into colder waters and starts weakening towards the middle of next week.

[tron777]

TD 10 E is now TS Irwin with winds of 40 mph moving WNW at 12.

[MVWxObserver]

TD 10 E is now TS Irwin with winds of 40 mph moving WNW at 12.

So there's now 2 I-named storms, Irwin and Idalia.