August 2023 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

They continue to cut back on the severe aspect and with the timing I agree. I am still rooting for at least a steady rain for several hours into early morning.

That's the best case scenario Tim. Something better stop popping in the next hour or two. Right now there is nothing going on for us. Everything you currently see will remain well to our NW.

I agree Les and starting to see some pop southwest of Terra Haute

It's like the little engine that could! We need to see more development on the tail. IMO this is our only shot at seeing some rain tonight.

I just wonder with the warm front nearby overnight that we don't see some development in the early morning hours. May not be severe but the moisture has increased today and I always look at those peak hours of 4-9am and pm.

[tron777]

I'm up to 86 now with a dew of 71 as of this post. We'll see Tim... that would be nice if the nocturnal LLJ would give us some assistance but I'm not holding my breath that is for sure.

[MVWxObserver]

Still holding steady at 77 with a DP of 61 here in G'ville and overcast.

[MVWxObserver]

An aunt and some cousins of mine in Anderson, IN are under the watch.

* Primary threats include...

A couple tornadoes possible

Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

[tron777]

86 still here with mostly sunny skies. It's the most sun I have seen all day. Looking at the radar and I am wondering if we see any rain at all tonight. Near and N of I-70 in IN the line is decent. Then you have a gap S of I-70. Action picks up again in S ILL. It is that gap that concerns me, as in we could be in that gap and get zippo tonight. Something to watch as the evening wears on.

[tron777]

I checked the latest NAM and HRRR runs and they try and fill that gap in some to help Cincy and points West. Whatever happens, it will still weaken as it heads in here due to bad timing as we've talked about. I'll believe it when I see it.

[MVWxObserver]

2230 3 NE Willow Hill Jasper IL 3902 8797 Brief (30-second) tornado touchdown near Mound Church ... near the intersection of 1200th Ave. and 2200th St. Relayed via WCIA-TV and WTWO-TV. (ILX)

2231 UNK 2 WSW North Terre Haute Vigo IN 3953 8739 8 inch diameter limbs and a tree are down across Park Ave between 13st and Lafayette Ave. Per HAM network. (IND)

[tpweather]

Good Morning and no rain overnight and very little expected today. The models are showing two chances and one overnight and then Monday afternoon. Lets hope this is correct as so far the energy has been north,west and south of us locally. No doubt we have the moisture available and that has been the case in the central plains the past week and they have received quite a bit of rain in many places. The cold front looks rather progressive for early to mid-August but hopefully we get into the perfect timing over the next 36 hours. I did notice late yesterday that I am seeing mores brownish tones to certain areas of the lawn so yes even though I have been lucky with rainfall in July I could use a couple more rounds in the near future.

[tron777]

Good morning All! Mine is browning out too, Tim. No lawn mowing for me until we get some rain. I went 2 weeks in between mowing's the last time and may have to do it again. I saw the same thing on the models. It looks like a line tries to push in after midnight tonight. Then we should see action tomorrow also with the cold front as you mentioned. Still, we cannot rule out a severe storm for us locally, but I believe the better chances for that is SW of Cincinnati as has been the case for a while now this summer. 1-2" of rain is showing up for the region on guidance, and I think the more west and SW of Cincy you are, the better chance you'll have of seeing that. If we can get a 1/2" then I'd consider that a huge win. Take it and run!

Looking ahead... maybe an instability driven shower or t-storm Tues afternoon with a cooler pocket of air passing thru with the upper trough, as well as lower humidity. Late Wed we have a shot of scattered storms, but I like Thursday personally for the highest chances for the region. Strong storms are again possible should the timing work out. Way too early to know that right now. A lingering chance early Friday. Next Saturday looks dry, then the next system drops in for sometime next Sunday or Monday. So we've got at least 2 if not 3 cold fronts to track over the next 7-10 days. On paper, that is pretty active for August. In reality, we'll have to wait and see how we do in the rainfall dept. Temps will be normal to below normal thru the entire forecast period.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les. The cooler than normal summer will continue and wetter than normal. When you look back at the stats in several years most likely the summer will be cool and wet. This is where stats can be misleading for some as Bgoney has been on the cooler side like most but not even close in the rain department. Another example will be the southwest USA and the record heat in July but they has such a cool May and June the period will end below normal in temps. The media picks and chooses which weather event they will latch onto but not give the whole story. Imo this year the hot place has been southern Texas and though maybe not record highs but a longer period of above normal temps this summer.

[tron777]

Let's all wish Lisa (Browneyedgirl) a very happy birthday today!!! I hope you have a wonderful day today Lisa and thanks as always, for being part of our forum.

[tron777]

Great Post Les. The cooler than normal summer will continue and wetter than normal. When you look back at the stats in several years most likely the summer will be cool and wet. This is where stats can be misleading for some as Bgoney has been on the cooler side like most but not even close in the rain department. Another example will be the southwest USA and the record heat in July but they has such a cool May and June the period will end below normal in temps. The media picks and chooses which weather event they will latch onto but not give the whole story. Imo this year the hot place has been southern Texas and though maybe not record highs but a longer period of above normal temps this summer.

No doubt Tim, no doubt! Texas has been baking for sure as well as New Mexico and other parts of the SW. We also know that Western Canada and Alaska have been very warm. This is of course due to persistent ridging in these areas. We've also seen persistent ridging in Greenland and the Western Atlantic Ocean. The trough resides in between over the Central and Eastern US. We've been begging for a pattern like this in winter! Hopefully it'll persist during the colder months.

Anyway... you are so right on the rainfall distribution. It truly has been the case of the Have's and Have Not's. Time and time again, St Louis to Paducah and into Western TN has been flooded out with several very extreme rainfall events. Even locally, last month, we saw potions of SE IN pick up 4-8" of rain where the rest of us saw very little to nothing. Rainfall totals for July ranged from nothing to 8" across the region. That is a huge spread! So while CVG is our official climate site for Cincinnati, you are right Tim. People like Bgoney that live in our Eastern counties is saying Rain, what rain? We'll have to wait and see if the trends continue with these next few systems, or do we see a change in the timing to allow for better rainfall distribution. The overnight timing we've been seeing stinks. Storms weaken as they move in and that has been a huge thorn in the sides of folks who have been so dry. The timing of these cold fronts has to change for more AV Posters to cash in.

[tpweather]

Let's all wish Lisa (Browneyedgirl) a very happy birthday today!!! I hope you have a wonderful day today Lisa and thanks as always, for being part of our forum.

Happy Birthday Lisa and please post more often as I love to read your posts.

[tpweather]

Les as we know know with most El Nino's that is a stormy pattern however there is usually an area just north of the above normal precip that is really dry and that seems to be the case so far. That does concern me for the winter and we will just wait and see.

[tron777]

Les as we know know with most El Nino's that is a stormy pattern however there is usually an area just north of the above normal precip that is really dry and that seems to be the case so far. That does concern me for the winter and we will just wait and see.

As I said yesterday though in our El Nino / winter thread, even if we are below normal in precip, if its cold, most of the precip is in the form of snow so you can have below normal precip, but still get above avg snowfall for the season. Remember the 2013-2014 winter as an example? We had light snows every 2 or 3 days of the 1-3" variety but it was so cold that winter, the snow came and kept stacking up slowly but surely and didn't melt all that much. At CVG, there were no snow events over 6" for the entire winter. Most everything was of the 1-3" or 2-4" variety yet we had an awesome winter with snowfall totals for the season in the 40s if not 50" mark. So basically, if the pattern is active and we are on the cold side of the storm track, like it was that winter, then bingo!

[tron777]

Per the latest visible, back edge of the clouds are over SW IN, Western KY and Eastern ILL. 12Z HRRR shows an MCS developing over Iowa dropping SE towards us tonight. The model keeps the rain and storms intact as it moves in near or after midnight tonight. Per the usual, storms weaken as they move in and head East. 12Z NAM also has the MCS pushing in but weakens it much faster so of course, less in the way of rainfall. Using CVG as a reference point, the NAM only gives us 0.30" where the HRRR has amounts in the 0.50 to 0.75" range. As usual we shall see!

[tpweather]

Per the latest visible, back edge of the clouds are over SW IN, Western KY and Eastern ILL. 12Z HRRR shows an MCS developing over Iowa dropping SE towards us tonight. The model keeps the rain and storms intact as it moves in near or after midnight tonight. Per the usual, storms weaken as they move in and head East. 12Z NAM also has the MCS pushing in but weakens it much faster so of course, less in the way of rainfall. Using CVG as a reference point, the NAM only gives us 0.30" where the HRRR has amounts in the 0.50 to 0.75" range. As usual we shall see!

Les the one good thing is the moisture buildup is much more today than yesterday. We talk yesterday how we had the clouds around early but some moisture and some high clouds mixed together made it a murky day. Today tons of moisture and all we need is a trigger to ignite some showers this afternoon. This evening and overnight there will be a complex heading this way and hopefully we have moisten up all layers of the atmosphere to keep the rain going further east. We could really use between 1-2 inches over the next 36 hours.

Change to post is the showers of thundershower this afternoon would be isolated like you see many summer days. Overnight the Nam like Les mentioned dies down but also further north compared to the HRRR model which gives us a direct hit and decent rainfall

[tron777]

Per the latest visible, back edge of the clouds are over SW IN, Western KY and Eastern ILL. 12Z HRRR shows an MCS developing over Iowa dropping SE towards us tonight. The model keeps the rain and storms intact as it moves in near or after midnight tonight. Per the usual, storms weaken as they move in and head East. 12Z NAM also has the MCS pushing in but weakens it much faster so of course, less in the way of rainfall. Using CVG as a reference point, the NAM only gives us 0.30" where the HRRR has amounts in the 0.50 to 0.75" range. As usual we shall see!

Les the one good thing is the moisture buildup is much more today than yesterday. We talk yesterday how we had the clouds around early but some moisture and some high clouds mixed together made it a murky day. Today tons of moisture and all we need is a trigger to ignite some showers this afternoon. This evening and overnight there will be a complex heading this way and hopefully we have moisten up all layers of the atmosphere to keep the rain going further east. We could really use between 1-2 inches over the next 36 hours.

We sure could Tim! Based on the trends, I cannot go that high for CVG Land and points East. I like 1-2" for folks West of us. I like a half inch for us, then lesser as one goes East unfortunately. Hopefully either tonight or Monday... everyone can see some much needed rain out of the deal. Fingers crossed!

[MVWxObserver]

I wouldn't mind a rain delay this afternoon at 1:40 with the way the guys have 'handled' the last place Gnats. Unreal!

[tron777]

I wouldn't mind a rain delay this afternoon at 1:40 with the way the guys have 'handled' the last place Gnats. Unreal!

LOL! I think we are going to have to wait until overnight and you know how "good" we do overnight rains.

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

HAPPY BIRTHDAY LISA!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

[MVWxObserver]

Redlegs got swept in 3 by the Gnats!

Currently 72 with a DP of 63 here in G'ville and overcast.

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A couple tornadoes possible

Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

[tron777]

MCS continues to develop over Iowa and ILL at this hour. We'll have to wait and see how much t-storm coverage occurs over the next few hours. The stronger the MCS becomes, the better chance we'll have at seeing some much needed rain tonight. Hope all can cash in!!!

The boys had this to say:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A weak cold front will continue east into eastern Ohio this
afternoon. This will allow a stabilizing airmass in the wake of
the front to briefly visit our region this evening.

For the overnight hours, attention will be drawn to developing
convection to our west. Low pressure over Iowa, with a warm
front extending southeast into the lower/middle Ohio Valley,
will be the focus for thunderstorms to develop this evening.
Aided by a modest low level jet along an advancing warm front,
various CAMs congeal this convection into an MCS which is
forecast to propagate east/southeast along the instability
gradient associated with the advancing warm front. The potential
exists for a few strong or severe storms to occur, mainly from
the Tri-State region into south central Ohio/northeast Kentucky.
This will be dependent on how strong the MCS becomes and how
much momentum/bowing it maintains as it follows the advancing
instability gradient. There is enough wiggle room in the CAMs
that points just to the north may get clipped by showers/storms.
However, these would be more elevated in nature and show subdue
the severe threat here. The main severe weather threat across
southern locales will be strong or damaging winds. Lows will
range from 65 to 70.