July 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

The back edge of the current MCS is moving into Western IN. Couple more hours of rain to go and then we should get a break. Sun is coming back out in Central ILL as Tim mentioned so we'll see how long the dry weather lasts to recover for the next round potentially overnight tonight. Also thinking we are fair game sometime after 11pm. I am hoping the day shakes out like this: We end the current action between 12-2pm. Get a break then we're good until after 11pm tonight. IF this happens to pan out then my party would be saved! Hoping and praying like you wouldn't believe this morning!

[Bgoney]

The back edge of the current MCS is moving into Western IN. Couple more hours of rain to go and then we should get a break. Sun is coming back out in Central ILL as Tim mentioned so we'll see how long the dry weather lasts to recover for the next round potentially overnight tonight. Also thinking we are fair game sometime after 11pm. I am hoping the day shakes out like this: We end the current action between 12-2pm. Get a break then we're good until after 11pm tonight. IF this happens to pan out then my party would be saved! Hoping and praying like you wouldn't believe this morning!

Lol , I’m still waiting on the eastern edge to get here, If need be you can have the fireworks here , no charge

[tron777]

The back edge of the current MCS is moving into Western IN. Couple more hours of rain to go and then we should get a break. Sun is coming back out in Central ILL as Tim mentioned so we'll see how long the dry weather lasts to recover for the next round potentially overnight tonight. Also thinking we are fair game sometime after 11pm. I am hoping the day shakes out like this: We end the current action between 12-2pm. Get a break then we're good until after 11pm tonight. IF this happens to pan out then my party would be saved! Hoping and praying like you wouldn't believe this morning!

Lol , I’m still waiting on the eastern edge to get here, If need be you can have the fireworks here , no charge

I might have to take you up on that! I never complain about seeing rain but this is the one day of the year where I will!

[tron777]

Up to 0.66" for the day since midnight now.

[tpweather]

Looking at some heat index readings yesterday and the highest I found was in southeast Missouri at 118. Paducah hit 115. Showing getting only to 109 today but at the moment they are above yesterdays temps so unless they get hit with some rain or some clouds I could see another day closer to 115.

[tron777]

My 2 day total is now up to 1.5"... sheesh.... you guys to the east can have it. Come and get it!

[tron777]

Rain should be coming to an end from 12-2pm across the region. Then we get a lull before renewed activity approaches later this evening. I think a pop up storm is possible from late this afternoon into early this evening then after 11pm we are fair game for that next round of strong to severe storms. If my thoughts here are right, my party should get off the ground.

[tpweather]

We are starting to see the next area of showers and thundershowers develop. This is over Illinois and Missouri. Cleared out in parts of southern Illinois and eastern Missouri and temps responded well and heat index over 105 in some areas. Like lighting a fuse as a severe thunderstorm watch already sent out. These storms once they form will move east/northeast headed for Les lol. Hopefully Les we can hold these off until 11pm or so and I am rooting for that to happen but I still worry these are building earlier and the jet is moving rather fast so some of these may get in here between 8-10pm. Will watch the timing as you will and hopefully they hold off. Another chance of severe weather on Sunday. Though still cloudy here the sky is trying to brighten and you can feel the humidity as well.

[tpweather]

Severe thunderstorm watch issued just to the west and southwest of the local area. My guess one will be issued for us later. How quickly do these storms move and it seems they may be developing a line which would include stronger winds imo. Only time will tell but something we need to watch over the next few hours.

[MVWxObserver]

.25 overbite.
Looks like more coming.
Go Reds!

Glad that Jonathan India was able to at least spare us some dignity today with his 11th career home run which was a grand slam!

At least this weekend has been a 1-1 split so far as Sun looks quite iffy wx wise. I predict a make up date via tomorrow.

Currently 81 here in G'ville.

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible

Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

A tornado or two possible

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible

Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

A tornado or two possible

[Bgoney]

Shear near us is marginal 30kts. Probably need some help from the LLJ overnight to keep it strong through the region.

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[MVWxObserver]

My gauge picked up .82" for Sat.

[MVWxObserver]

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1126 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

INZ050-OHZ042-051-060-061-070-071-020415-
Wayne IN-Montgomery OH-Warren OH-Darke OH-Butler OH-Preble OH-
Miami OH-
1126 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WAYNE,
PREBLE, EASTERN BUTLER, NORTHWESTERN WARREN, SOUTHERN DARKE,
MONTGOMERY AND MIAMI COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 AM EDT...

At 1126 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Camden, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph, pea size hail, frequent
cloud-to-ground lightning, and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
objects. Lightning can cause serious injury or death.
Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dayton, Hamilton, Kettering, Middletown, Fairfield, Huber Heights,
Richmond, Mason, Troy, Trotwood, Miamisburg, Springboro, Vandalia,
Englewood, Greenville, Monroe, Trenton, Franklin, Springdale and Tipp
City.

This includes the following Interstates...
I-70 in Indiana between mile markers 143 and 156.
I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 41.
I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 18 and 77.

&&

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

$$

KC

[MVWxObserver]

----

[Angelika]

Pretty nasty storm blew through here. Crazy wind and constant lightning. I think we might have a tree down in the back yard. Can't tell in the dark. Will update in the morning.

[Bgoney]

Another shut out here. Whole 4 day event a measly quarter inch.

[tpweather]

Another shut out here. Whole 4 day event a measly quarter inch.

Good Morning Bgoney and no doubt you got the old hosed job with this event. I only got 0.02 last night. Just about all the larger NWS in the Ohio Valley got a nice does with yesterday and early today's rainfall except CVG. That was a true dome and my guess Les worked his magic to keep the rain away. Still have another chance later today but don't go to the bank on a ton of rain.

[Bgoney]

Another shut out here. Whole 4 day event a measly quarter inch.

Good Morning Bgoney and no doubt you got the old hosed job with this event. I only got 0.02 last night. Just about all the larger NWS in the Ohio Valley got a nice does with yesterday and early today's rainfall except CVG. That was a true dome and my guess Les worked his magic to keep the rain away. Still have another chance later today but don't go to the bank on a ton of rain.

Beyond frustrating when you e been in drought for nearly 2 months, makes me think something else is going on. I might have to start going to church again

[young pup]

Went down to Cincy yesterday to my nieces summer party. Thankfully the sun came out for awhile and enjoyed some pool time, some boomers, food. Left there about 11pm to get away from the storms that were knocking on the door step. Ran into heavy rain at Kings Island for a bit. The just some wet roads the rest of the way home. Starting storming here after 1am.

[tpweather]

Here are the totals in the Ohio Valley over the past 72 hours. Of course these are recorded at the NWS that each city uses for keeping records. I know some folks like Bgoney got much less.

CVG- 1.22

SDF- 1.13

Lex- 4.37

Pad- 0.31

Ind- 1.34

Cmh- 1.35

Day- 1.27

Cle- 0.36

Tol- 0.37

So looking at this through the central part of the Ohio Valley totals between 1 - 1 1/2 inch were common. Northern areas mainly less than 1/2 inch and southwest Kentucky less than 1/2 inch as well.. Of course a place like Lexington over 4 inches and still rainy this morning.

All in all a nice rain event but like most system or systems we have winners and losers in terms of rainfall totals.

[tpweather]

Rooting for the RGEM model to be correct this afternoon and evening as we get a nice dose of thunderstorms with heavy rain fall for everyone in the local area.

[Bgoney]

Shows the eastern wedge screw zone nicely

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[Smohler]

Ok folks I haven't been on in forever, age and health haven't been kind. But I thought of you all today cause I need a professional opinion. We have a large amt of fireworks to put off. My nephews wire them up somehow, we aren't just lighting then behind the shed. It takes a few hours to set it up. We are scheduled for tonight but it seems extremely iffy (at 9:45.pm to start) tomorrow is doable but my nephew thinks tomorrow is just as iffy, he just goes by a weather channel app. Can you folks give me any guidance on which night has a better chance of staying dry? I'd really appreciate it.