June 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Sunshine will be breaking out in the next few hours.

1kmv.gif

Check out those juicy dews off to the west:

ttd_sf.gif

[tron777]

Latest NAM has a big TOR signal while the HRRR has a nice hail signal. Either scenario is concerning.

nam_2023062512_012_38.97--84.56.png

hrrr_2023062512_011_38.99--84.62.png

[tpweather]

Good Morning and great posts from yesterday and today concerning the possible severe outbreak. Looking at the set up this does spell a rather good chance of severe weather in our area. Rather potent system for late June and timing looks really almost perfect and I agree with Trev on having the tornado threat further east. Again the threat is small like in most cases but these will probably form quite quickly later in the afternoon. Instability is always a key and it seems imo that looks stronger today than yesterday. I know the hrrr model is not as strong and has the development somewhat further east so we will see where the development ends up developing. Bgoney made a point yesterday where some folks may get little in terms of rainfall and down the road tons of rain in a short period. This happened in Elizabethtown,Ky this morning with over 2 inches in a short period. So the rain later today could be quite heavy for a short period of time but until this line sort of forms into one line hard to say who gets hit the hardest

[Trevor]

0.10" so far from the morning rain. It is coming to an end here shortly. Trev, I am also concerned about that 30% large hail risk too for the western 1/2 of the area. Could see some super cells congeal into a line over the Tri-state. Definitely a concerning set up.

Absolutely a concern. Could see some rather giant hail in the strongest storms. Cars in the garage today! Lol

[tpweather]

These clouds like Les mentioned should move out rather quickly and that sun with boost temps up quickly. Would not be surprised to see a 90 degree temp for some folks. St.Louis already 88 degrees. Many times during the summer we get those 90 degree days for the contest ahead of a front and that looks to be the case. I would not be surprised either if we get a heat index in the 95-100 range for a short period of time as well. My morning rainfall was only 0.03 so it would be nice to get some rain this afternoon just not all at one time lol.

[tpweather]

Wonder if we move up to a moderate risk concerning severe weather. Already in the enhanced area but my guess is they may move that up one notch to the moderate risk.

[Trevor]

Wonder if we move up to a moderate risk concerning severe weather. Already in the enhanced area but my guess is they may move that up one notch to the moderate risk.

Tornado threat and hail is teetering on MDT criteria.

[Trevor]

Thread for possible svr outbreak:

https://absolutevorticity.com/viewtopic.php?t=248

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG and DAY reached 86 and CMH 84 for Sun.

[tron777]

If you still need rain, today into tonight offers up a chance. Then again late Fri into this upcoming weekend. Tues thru maybe Thurs looks pleasant.

[Woolyworm]

Grandpa Wooly was looking at the stats of June cloudy days. Records are showing 19 out of 25 days in June were cloudy or ptly cloudy. Is this above average or below ave for June? The Woolies feel like they are back in Scotland.

[tron777]

Grandpa Wooly was looking at the stats of June cloudy days. Records are showing 19 out of 25 days in June were cloudy or ptly cloudy. Is this above average or below ave for June? The Woolies feel like they are back in Scotland.

Maybe Trev's buddy can answer this one, but if I recall, I don't think ILN keeps sky cover data anymore or if they do, I can't seem to find it. Back in the day, it used to be published either on the daily climate report or monthly report (Can't remember which). For years, they stopped doing it as did many NWS Offices. My guess is due to budget cuts or something.

[winterstormjoe]

Grandpa Wooly was looking at the stats of June cloudy days. Records are showing 19 out of 25 days in June were cloudy or ptly cloudy. Is this above average or below ave for June? The Woolies feel like they are back in Scotland.

I was wondering the same thing last Friday when it was cloudy again. Seems like we've had a lot of cloudy and cool day In June and it looks like we can add today and maybe tomorrow for the month.

[cloudy72]

So all is not lost - I did manage a quick 0.07" early this morning and hope for some more this afternoon.

[Bgoney]

Both CVG and DAY reached 86 and CMH 84 for Sun.

This is why we didn’t see much activity IMO. I thought we would need upper 80s to ninety, so we were the unfortunate screw zone for rainfall

[tpweather]

Both CVG and DAY reached 86 and CMH 84 for Sun.

This is why we didn’t see much activity IMO. I thought we would need upper 80s to ninety, so we were the unfortunate screw zone for rainfall

Dead on and I though we would see the heat index get somewhere between 95-100 and that ended up short by a few degrees. Heading to Louisville and they did get in that range and ended up with a nice total as did much of central and eastern Kentucky. My final total for the day was 0.24. We can still use the rain but the heat has not been a problem so that no doubt has helped.

Later this week it looks like the ring of fire may come into play. When this happens you can get some decent rains and strong to severe storms. The biggest problem with this is it seems this gets into a certain pattern and if you are in the correct place plentiful rainfall but if your outside that area little to no rain. The models are showing this but much further south than you would normally see for late June which for us may help.No doubt to the south and west later this week the heat and humidity will build big time and Paducah is all ready forecasting temps over 100. Going to be a battle zone between the heat and cooler air much further northeast. At this point we look to be in a sweet spot but to far in advance to give it the all go.

[Bgoney]

Grandpa Wooly was looking at the stats of June cloudy days. Records are showing 19 out of 25 days in June were cloudy or ptly cloudy. Is this above average or below ave for June? The Woolies feel like they are back in Scotland.

I was wondering the same thing last Friday when it was cloudy again. Seems like we've had a lot of cloudy and cool day In June and it looks like we can add today and maybe tomorrow for the month.

Past 30 days solar flux anomalies (clouds/sun)are close to normal but probably skewed a bit with those few days of May thrown in with June

IMG_0391.jpeg

[tron777]

Both CVG and DAY reached 86 and CMH 84 for Sun.

This is why we didn’t see much activity IMO. I thought we would need upper 80s to ninety, so we were the unfortunate screw zone for rainfall

Dead on and I though we would see the heat index get somewhere between 95-100 and that ended up short by a few degrees. Heading to Louisville and they did get in that range and ended up with a nice total as did much of central and eastern Kentucky. My final total for the day was 0.24. We can still use the rain but the heat has not been a problem so that no doubt has helped.

Later this week it looks like the ring of fire may come into play. When this happens you can get some decent rains and strong to severe storms. The biggest problem with this is it seems this gets into a certain pattern and if you are in the correct place plentiful rainfall but if your outside that area little to no rain. The models are showing this but much further south than you would normally see for late June which for us may help.No doubt to the south and west later this week the heat and humidity will build big time and Paducah is all ready forecasting temps over 100. Going to be a battle zone between the heat and cooler air much further northeast. At this point we look to be in a sweet spot but to far in advance to give it the all go.

Also agree. I thought that we had enough sunshine to make it, but I supposed an extra 30-60 mins would have made all the difference. Just hope that my party goes off well without t-storms on Saturday. That is what I am watching for. Let it come on Friday night or something. Sat after midnight is fine too.

[Woolyworm]

Grandpa Wooly was looking at the stats of June cloudy days. Records are showing 19 out of 25 days in June were cloudy or ptly cloudy. Is this above average or below ave for June? The Woolies feel like they are back in Scotland.

I was wondering the same thing last Friday when it was cloudy again. Seems like we've had a lot of cloudy and cool day In June and it looks like we can add today and maybe tomorrow for the month.

Past 30 days solar flux anomalies (clouds/sun)are close to normal but probably skewed a bit with those few days of May thrown in with June



IMG_0391.jpeg

Cool. Thanks.

[tron777]

77 with a dew of 65 at CVG this afternoon as of 1pm. 12Z sounding showed a convective temp of 76 today so we are seeing a nice CU field now. Eventually some scattered shower activity is possible this afternoon and evening. Activity should wind down after sunset. Nothing severe of course and just scattered downpours are all I am expecting. Some could get a quick tenth of an inch others nothing. That type of thing.

[tron777]

For tomorrow, I expect our extreme E counties to have a shower chance in the afternoon, the rest of us are dry. Wed and Thurs are good with lower humidity and more pleasant temps. 12Z GFS has an MCS diving in here Thurs night into early Fri then more scattered action on Sat.

[tpweather]

For tomorrow, I expect our extreme E counties to have a shower chance in the afternoon, the rest of us are dry. Wed and Thurs are good with lower humidity and more pleasant temps. 12Z GFS has an MCS diving in here Thurs night into early Fri then more scattered action on Sat.

Great forecast Les. What I am concerned about is late in the week with the mcs. Usually once that train starts it can take several days to wind down. We see these most summers and this one seems want to come through the tri-state. Like I mentioned before this one the models are showing is somewhat further south than you would expect this time of year but also could be rather strong with the heat and humidity from Texas trying to flex its muscle north and east later this week. Could be a wide range of weather late in the week and you could see places that get under the mcs stay in the 70's and folks further southwest over 100 and that is in the Ohio Valley.

[tron777]

For tomorrow, I expect our extreme E counties to have a shower chance in the afternoon, the rest of us are dry. Wed and Thurs are good with lower humidity and more pleasant temps. 12Z GFS has an MCS diving in here Thurs night into early Fri then more scattered action on Sat.

Great forecast Les. What I am concerned about is late in the week with the mcs. Usually once that train starts it can take several days to wind down. We see these most summers and this one seems want to come through the tri-state. Like I mentioned before this one the models are showing is somewhat further south than you would expect this time of year but also could be rather strong with the heat and humidity from Texas trying to flex its muscle north and east later this week. Could be a wide range of weather late in the week and you could see places that get under the mcs stay in the 70's and folks further southwest over 100 and that is in the Ohio Valley.

We are definitely in the battle zone between the cooler air / trough over New England and the heat trying to push in from the SW (Lower Plains / Lower MS Valley). Not only will rounds of storms be possible but damaging winds in terms of severe wx is also a concern at times. 1st one up is the Thurs night potential. If we see that then most of Friday should be dry in the wake of that system. However, that sets us up to be fair game on Sat which obviously concerns me a great deal. We'll see exactly where the boundary sets up in the coming days which will give us a better idea of who is going to be most at risk this weekend. I should probably get the July thread going for folks having parties / and our pyro's out there.

[MVWxObserver]

2 out of 3 games in the Redlegs vs Orioles series at Baltimore look to be impacted and with delays and / or ppds. Currently only a 20% POPs for Wed so perhaps a twin bill on that day and then both teams are off Thurs so perhaps the other game made up then.

30% zone for wind there e.g.

Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Some storms could be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain. Low around 67. South wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tuesday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 9pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9pm and 3am. Low around 65. West wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

[tron777]

Scattered pop corn showers have developed as expected this afternoon. Forecast remains in great shape at this time. The new Euro run is in now and it weakens the Thurs night MSC as it moves in... nothing major.