June 2023 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

Get ready for a steamy weekend on tap. Expecting dry conditions today with strong to severe storms between 6-11pm Sunday.

Hey Les,

So with that time frame for storms my folks and I along with other extended family should be able to get home pretty much dry (wx wise) after a 1 o'clock 2 or 3 hours party fellowship gathering at an eatery in Troy, OH on Sun?

[MVWxObserver]

Currently for Sun a 2% for isolated tornadoes, 30% wind, and 15% hail.

[MVWxObserver]

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[Bgoney]

Lots of discrepancies in the models . I do think severe will be in the area in an isolated nature. Some areas may see little to no rain however.

[tron777]

Lots of discrepancies in the models . I do think severe will be in the area in an isolated nature. Some areas may see little to no rain however.

I'm wondering if it blows up right on top of us so like I-71 or I-75 corridors on East benefit while west of that line gets nothing. We should have some leftover debris clouds tomorrow morning if not a leftover shower too, then we'll see how much heating we can get. You know, the usual stuff.

[tron777]

85 here today, 87 CVG. I guess a jet took off there.

[MVWxObserver]

DAY got to 86 and CMH 84.

[Bgoney]

Lots of discrepancies in the models . I do think severe will be in the area in an isolated nature. Some areas may see little to no rain however.

I'm wondering if it blows up right on top of us so like I-71 or I-75 corridors on East benefit while west of that line gets nothing. We should have some leftover debris clouds tomorrow morning if not a leftover shower too, then we'll see how much heating we can get. You know, the usual stuff.

There’s a good deal of support for that happening, even the SPC isn’t sure how it’s going to play out. We’ve got to reach the upper 80s or 90 to get things going. We shall see

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

A tornado or two possible

[MVWxObserver]

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms may become numerous late this
afternoon into tonight across parts of the southeastern Great Plains
and lower Mississippi Valley, into the lower Ohio Valley and
adjacent portions of the Great Lakes. This may include supercells
with a risk for tornadoes across parts of central and eastern
Indiana into western Ohio and central Kentucky.

[MVWxObserver]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
456 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-260900-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
456 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe storms are likely later this afternoon into this evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats, although
a few strong tornadoes will also be possible, especially along and
west of the I-75 corridor. The most likely time frame for severe
weather will be between 4 PM and 11 PM.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

$$

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

I had a rough night with insomnia as I was up until around 3 AM because of today's ominous wording in the forecast.

This set up is certainly rare for us folks!

Something to see an Enhanced risk from the Ohio Valley all the way to Arkansas!

[tron777]

Good morning all! The entire region has been upgraded to an enhanced risk. Let me grab a cup of coffee and we'll talk about it.

[tron777]

71 currently imby with a dew of 63. Showers and t-storms (non severe) are pushing in from the West. What will the rain / cloud impacts be for this afternoon if any? There is clearing back in ILL so we should be able to get plenty of sunshine after this moves thru to heat us up for this evening's activity. I still like the 6-10pm timeframe for the Metro.

Once the sun comes out, and this line passes, the dew point will shoot up towards 70 or so and the sunshine will heat us up into the 87 to 90 degree range. We are already seeing bulk shear in excess of 40 knots and weak CAPE of 500 J/G also in ILL at this time. As far as the specifics go, we have a 10% TOR hatched risk area over our Western counties, 5% for everyone else. Large hail is a 30% hatched area in the same area of the 10% TOR risk, 15% everywhere else. 30% for wind all locations.

The boys had this to say:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Convective complex currently over Illinois and western Indiana
will continue to move east southeast toward our area through
daybreak. This is moving into a more stable airmass, so expect
to see an overall weakening trend as it approaches, but there
remains some uncertainty as to just how far east it will make it
before falling apart through mid morning. It does appear that it
will hold together into at least our western areas where will
allow for a period of chance pops for mid morning. We should
then see a diurnal lull in pcpn from late morning into early
afternoon.

As the remnant clouds dissipate, temperatures will climb into
the mid to upper 80s through this afternoon. This will combine
with dewpoints in the upper 60s to possibly lower 70s to yield
strong instability across the region. Given the strong
instability, mid level short wave energy moving out of the
western Great Lakes should lead to convective initiation from
mid to late afternoon either across our northwest or just
northwest of our area. This will be along the leading edge of
strengthening 40+ knot deep layer shear overspreading our area
and increasing low level helicities. Thus some supercells will
be possible with the initial development, with large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes all possible, especially for
areas along and west of the I-75 corridor. These initial storms
should congeal into more of a line of storms as they shift east
southeast across our area through the evening hours. While large
hail and an isolated tornado will remain possible, the primary
threat should transition into more of damaging wind event as the
line of storms moves across southeast portions of our area this
evening. Pcpn chances should taper off fairly quickly behind
this line as we head into the overnight hours.

Let's take a look now at a couple of the early morning soundings. 6Z NAM continues to look nasty while the HRRR isn't quite as bad but still need to keep our guard up and one eye open.

nam_2023062506_018_39.3--84.66.png

hrrr_2023062506_018_39.0--84.73.png

[kywthrluvr]

Wilmington is conducting a special balloon release at 4:00 due to today’s severe risk.

[tron777]

What's left of the overnight rain is knocking on the door step. It will continue to weaken so amounts won't be all that great. However, I'll take as much rain as I can get! The rain / clouds should give way to some sunshine by midday to the early afternoon hours. Plenty of time to heat things up this time of year.

[young pup]

Didn't realize that we were going to possibly get some rain this am before the afternoon action. It is what it is.

Edit: Shoudn't this afternoon's action set up along the boundary set by this mornings action?

[tron777]

Didn't realize that we were going to possibly get some rain this am before the afternoon action. It is what it is.

Edit: Shoudn't this afternoon's action set up along the boundary set by this mornings action?

The later activity will develop ahead of the cold front. The morning action is weakening and it's what was leftover from last night's severe wx over MN, Iowa, and ILL.

[tron777]

Light rain now along with some thunder and a light breeze.

[young pup]

Didn't realize that we were going to possibly get some rain this am before the afternoon action. It is what it is.

Edit: Shoudn't this afternoon's action set up along the boundary set by this mornings action?

The later activity will develop ahead of the cold front. The morning action is weakening and it's what was leftover from last night's severe wx over MN, Iowa, and ILL.

Gotcha. thanks.

[MVWxObserver]

...Ohio Valley and vicinity...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop in one
or two organized arc or lines of lift related to:
1. The front impinging on a destabilizing boundary layer up and down
western parts of the outlook area, and perhaps
2. A prefrontal/lake-breeze convergence zone over western Lower MI.
Damaging to severe gusts and large hail are likely as activity
organizes upscale following an early, discrete to semi-discrete
stage.

Supercellular tornado and large-hail threats will exist along nearly
the entire corridor. That said, potential for strong tornado(es)
and significant/damaging-hail should be relatively maximized across
the eastern IN/western OH and perhaps southern Lower MI sector,
where the supporting CAPE/shear parameter space will overlap best.
In that swath, large low-level hodographs will develop ahead of the
main convective band, leading to 150-300 J/kg effective SRH and
40-50-kt effective-shear magnitudes.

That will be collocated with a northward-directed corridor of
afternoon destabilization and increasing buoyancy related to:
1. Warm/moist advection behind the morning activity,
2. Steepening low-level lapse rates from diabatic heating, and
3. Increasing midlevel lapse rates from a combination of the
northeastward-advected EML plume and large-scale ascent preceding
the progressive cyclone.

This should lead to a plume of MLCAPE ranging from around 3000-4000
J/kg over the lower Ohio Valley to 1500-2000 J/kg in parts of
central/northern Lower MI, to where greater severe probabilities
have been expanded northward. Severe potential overall should
diminish with time and eastward extent tonight as activity gradually
moves into lower theta-e.

[Trevor]

Latest SPC outlook expands the sig tornado threat further east to include pretty much everyone in the immediate tristate area. High res models are concerning. Could be a bumpy ride this evening.

[tron777]

0.10" so far from the morning rain. It is coming to an end here shortly. Trev, I am also concerned about that 30% large hail risk too for the western 1/2 of the area. Could see some super cells congeal into a line over the Tri-state. Definitely a concerning set up.

[tron777]

Supercell Comp index is already at a 6 over Western KY. Lapse rates are already steepening over Eastern ILL and far Western IN 7 to 7.5C values already exist with bulk shear of 40-50 knots. CAPE currently in that area over Eastern ILL in the 2000-3000 J/KG range. Extremely concerning with that much CAPE potentially being available for us later today. LI's of -8 along ILL / IN border. Wow...