tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jun 18, 2023 3:20 pm
Hey Les and glad you made it back home. The models came back north overnight and the trend continues. Again probably a sharp cutoff but where that finally sets up is to close to call. The Euro had those insane numbers for Greenville and over 8 inches which again is way to high but it does show plenty of moisture available. They could have rain for 5 straight days down here and they are already soaked.
Thanks Tim! Good to be back! It's time to get caught up here and get back in the saddle on this forum. Also, it's time to get ready for my party on July 1st. Finally... after the party, things will be calmer for a while once again. I have to stop spending money for a while.
Like seeing those northerly trends too. If we can manage a half inch that will work. Anything more, I'll consider it a bonus. The potential for 1-2" is definitely there though and don't be shocked if it occurs.
tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jun 17, 2023 7:36 pm
Good Evening and down to the last few days in SC. The weather has been wonderful but rain moving in on Monday and we plan on leaving that afternoon. Saw something from the Louisville NWS and so far this year Louisville,Bowling Green and Lexington have not had a low temperature of 70 or above. Very late in the year and of course with the drier conditions this has led to cooler nighttime lows. The heat in the south central and along the western GOM is quite hot even for them. Reason is the heat is not moving to far north and you get such a smaller area that roasts. Not seeing that kind of heat moving this way and though milder over the next 10 days or so we will be at normal to slightly below normal for the most part.
The 500mb pattern continues to look as bad as you can get for beneficial rains for the OV/Midwest. Ridging in Mexico/southern Texas has the ring of fire/ridge riders well to the south along a stalled out boundary, keeping the GOM still closed for us , compared to normal. At times the ridging hooks up with another ridge near the Canadian border/Michigan which keeps giving us northern flow/ hence wild fire smoke. It really looks bad for widespread rains from Cincinnati northward for the foreseeable future.
I really need to get better at looking at this part of the models. Just by looking at the precip maps for the next 10 dayson the 0z. It looks like CVG,Day,Cmh all are in the 1 to 2 inch range of rainfall. But, your posts seems to hint as it being more dryer?
12z NAM now parks the low near Louisville early week , if that is correct cvgland might see some better scattered beneficial rains , before the pattern drs back out
the highest total for me is 2.40 on the euro for the next 10 day on the 12z runs. I saw 4.0 on the canadian for cvg. Wait and see what happens.
On a side note, I worked today and did some commercial properties. I really thought they would be greener and longer as I have had about 1 to 3 inches of rain the last week or so. They were not very long and still had brown in them. Not as bad though as it was.
Good Evening and one more day and hopefully on to the next chapter of life. So why such a late severe season in the south and two reasons. First is the jet is rather far south for mid-June. Second is the extreme heat in much of Texas. Yes Texas is hot during the summer but this is even hot for them with some forecasts of 110-113 and dew points near 70. That is a lot hotter than the southwest where they get temps in the 115-120 but dew points in the 30's. So you get this heat and a jet just to the north and severe weather is going to happen. Some tornado's but tons of heavy rain with thunder and lightning plus plenty events of hail because its rather cold upstairs.
Good morning! No rain yet for my hood or CVG, but some of you may have already seen a few heavy downpours and some thunder and lightning. The S. counties and SE counties have done best but it is slowly heading more NW for us in the Metro to cash in today. I still like that 1/2" call for today. Radar looks promising!
0.56" for my total thus far. A nice steady soaking rainfall today! Chances continue to look halfway decent for tomorrow also then backing down into the scattered category thereafter, However, due to a daily chance for rain, temps will be held down in the 70s this week, back into the 80s this weekend.
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Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
9th win in a row as the Redlegs edged the Rockies 5-4! With the Brewers having lost to the Dbacks our guys are now in 1st place!!!! Joey Votto upon his return from shoulder rehab even provided a homer tonight among the action!!
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Good Morning and finally the SC days are over. What a hellish ride back in the U-haul. Took almost 11 hours compared to a normal 7 hours. Major wrecks everywhere because of the heavy rains and dumb people. I-26 is a pain as they continue to work on that and a car stalled and back up traffic for 45 minutes. I-40 before you hit the Bristol/Knoxville split was backed up because of a storm that hit and caused an accident and that was about 30 minutes. The third was I-75 in northern Tn as another storm caused a back up and another 1 hour delay and that last was on I-75 north of Georgetown where once again heavy rains caused another accident with all lanes shut down and another 1 hour delay.
Still expected 5-8 inches of rain in the Greenville area this week and guess what I don't care. Will talk about the weather later today as we have quite a bit going on compared to the last 45 days or so.
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jun 20, 2023 9:34 am
Good Morning and finally the SC days are over. What a hellish ride back in the U-haul. Took almost 11 hours compared to a normal 7 hours. Major wrecks everywhere because of the heavy rains and dumb people. I-26 is a pain as they continue to work on that and a car stalled and back up traffic for 45 minutes. I-40 before you hit the Bristol/Knoxville split was backed up because of a storm that hit and caused an accident and that was about 30 minutes. The third was I-75 in northern Tn as another storm caused a back up and another 1 hour delay and that last was on I-75 north of Georgetown where once again heavy rains caused another accident with all lanes shut down and another 1 hour delay.
Still expected 5-8 inches of rain in the Greenville area this week and guess what I don't care. Will talk about the weather later today as we have quite a bit going on compared to the last 45 days or so.
Nothing more frustrating than travel plans not going as planned. Sounds like some sort of alcoholic beverage is in order to calm the nerves. Cheeers!!!!
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jun 20, 2023 9:34 am
Good Morning and finally the SC days are over. What a hellish ride back in the U-haul. Took almost 11 hours compared to a normal 7 hours. Major wrecks everywhere because of the heavy rains and dumb people. I-26 is a pain as they continue to work on that and a car stalled and back up traffic for 45 minutes. I-40 before you hit the Bristol/Knoxville split was backed up because of a storm that hit and caused an accident and that was about 30 minutes. The third was I-75 in northern Tn as another storm caused a back up and another 1 hour delay and that last was on I-75 north of Georgetown where once again heavy rains caused another accident with all lanes shut down and another 1 hour delay.
Still expected 5-8 inches of rain in the Greenville area this week and guess what I don't care. Will talk about the weather later today as we have quite a bit going on compared to the last 45 days or so.
Hey Tim,
Have a cold one for our Redlegs, bro!! I had to pinch myself last night a few times!!
Like a World Series atmosphere there at the GAB as the party was on big time around where Chris Welsh and Brian Giesenschlag were broadcasting!!
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jun 20, 2023 9:34 am
Good Morning and finally the SC days are over. What a hellish ride back in the U-haul. Took almost 11 hours compared to a normal 7 hours. Major wrecks everywhere because of the heavy rains and dumb people. I-26 is a pain as they continue to work on that and a car stalled and back up traffic for 45 minutes. I-40 before you hit the Bristol/Knoxville split was backed up because of a storm that hit and caused an accident and that was about 30 minutes. The third was I-75 in northern Tn as another storm caused a back up and another 1 hour delay and that last was on I-75 north of Georgetown where once again heavy rains caused another accident with all lanes shut down and another 1 hour delay.
Still expected 5-8 inches of rain in the Greenville area this week and guess what I don't care. Will talk about the weather later today as we have quite a bit going on compared to the last 45 days or so.
Hey Tim,
Have a cold one for our Redlegs, bro!! I had to pinch myself last night a few times!!
Like a World Series atmosphere there at the GAB as the party was on big time around where Chris Welsh and Brian Giesenschlag were broadcasting!!
Eric I was listening to the game on the way home and it was the top of the 6th inning. That may have been the longest inning of baseball ever lol.
Glad you made it back home Tim! Welcome Home by the way! So glad you are back for a while now and you're going to SNOW in the winter instead of rain. I like that trade off lol
Currently, the rain chances are coming down but not zero. We are looking at a daily chance of showers and t-storms but I think there will be more dry time versus wet. 30-50% coverage ought to cover it. Expecting this pattern to persist at least thru this weekend. Highs in the 70s thru the end of the week then the 80s thereafter. Lows in the 60s. Not expecting any 90 degree days for the contest for the next 7-10 days at this time.
Picked up an additional 0.01" (along with CVG) from a few showers that came thru earlier. Cloudy skies will give way to some sun breaks later today with highs in the upper 70s. Rain chances look highest now on Friday with just slight chance POPS before and after that.
Welcome to the first day of summer... the Solstice!! The longest day of the year is here! Now we slowly start going back the other way. However, the warmer weather months are just getting underway!
Also, it's time to get ready for my party on July 1st. 
Finally... after the party, things will be calmer for a while once again. I have to stop spending money for a while. 
9th win in a row as the Redlegs edged the Rockies 5-4! 
I like that trade off lol