June 2023 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

Les, his bro Larry and their fishing buddies are in the watch.

* Primary threats include...

Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

A tornado or two possible

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

2029 100 7 S Webberville Ingham MI 4257 8417 Public report relayed via WLNS TV. (GRR)

2050 100 1 NE Dexter Washtenaw MI 4234 8387 (DTX)

2058 125 5 S Pinckney Washtenaw MI 4238 8395 (DTX)

2110 150 Pinckney Livingston MI 4245 8395 Hail fell in downtown Pinckney (DTX)

2120 100 Stony Creek Washtenaw MI 4215 8366 Hail near the intersection of Willis and Stoney Creek Roads. (DTX)

2124 175 Northfield Washtenaw MI 4234 8373 Near the intersection of Joy and Dixboro Roads (DTX)

2125 100 1 N Whittaker Washtenaw MI 4214 8360 Hail fell near the intersection of Willis Road and Jedd Road in Augusta Charter Township. (DTX)

2130 UNK 1 N Bluffton Wells IN 4075 8517 Report from mPING: 3-inch tree limbs broken; Power poles broken. (IWX)

2136 100 2 NW Canton Wayne MI 4234 8351 Reported at the intersection of Beck and Warren Roads (DTX)

2136 UNK 1 E Bluffton Wells IN 4074 8514 Report relayed from near Bluffton along 124 ... reports of trees down from thunderstorm wind. No information on size/tree health. (IWX)

2136 UNK 1 E Bluffton Wells IN 4074 8516 Reports of a large tree down on a mobile home in the park off US 124. No injuries or fatalities were reported. (IWX)

2138 UNK 2 NNE Reiffsburg Wells IN 4069 8514 Various 1-3 inch limbs down. Reported via MPING. (IWX)

2141 UNK 2 SE Bluffton Wells IN 4071 8514 MPING 1 to 3 inch limbs reported down by spotter ... also had a phone call about various 1-3 inch diameter limbs and tree debris around town. (IWX)

2145 125 1 SSW Vera Cruz Wells IN 4068 8509 Crop Damage at 700E and 400S from the large hail that moved through the area. (IWX)

2145 150 Worden Washtenaw MI 4239 8364 Picture of ping pong ball hail on social media. (DTX)

2145 UNK 1 SSW Vera Cruz Wells IN 4069 8509 Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 1 SSW Vera Cruz. Metal roofing partially removed/peeled off an outhouse building. An empty 35K gallon fertilizer tank was tipped over on its side. (IWX)

2147 125 1 NW Linn Grove Adams IN 4066 8505 Hail covering the road like snow ... about two inches thick. Average size was quarter sized ... and then the largest spotter saw was half dollar. There is patchy dense fog as a result of the hail. (IWX)

2147 UNK 1 NW Linn Grove Adams IN 4066 8505 24 inch diameter healthy maple uprooted ... a grove of trees was heavily damaged ... with trees of varying health and size were either uprooted or snapped. (IWX)

2151 UNK Lambertville Monroe MI 4175 8362 Multiple trees downed. (DTX)

2206 5 NNE Toledo Lucas OH 4173 8354 Preliminary NWS storm survey determined an EF-2 tornado with estimated peak winds of 130 mph and path width of 300 yards occurred in Lucas County. (CLE)

2207 UNK 4 WNW Harbor View Lucas OH 4172 8352 Multiple utility poles down and report of a roof blown off of a house in Washington Township. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2209 UNK 3 WNW Harbor View Lucas OH 4171 8350 Numerous reports of trees snapped and structural damage ... including roofs ripped off buildings ... in Point Place. Possible tornado. (CLE)

2210 175 2 ENE Oregon Lucas OH 4168 8338 Large hail reported in Maumee Bay State Park. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2210 175 3 S Erie Monroe MI 4176 8350 (DTX)

2210 UNK 2 NW Harbor View Lucas OH 4171 8348 Numerous trees snapped. Minor damage to a vehicle reported as well as minor damage to a roof. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2210 UNK 2 SW Luna Pier Monroe MI 4178 8347 Trees and powerlines down. (DTX)

2210 UNK 1 W Detroit Beach Monroe MI 4193 8335 Large limbs down (DTX)

2210 UNK Newport Monroe MI 4200 8331 Large limbs down (DTX)

2212 1 NNE Woodland Beach Monroe MI 4195 8331 Widespread reports of trees and powerlines down in Detroit Beach ... Woodland Beach ... Baycrest Beach ... and Stony Point. (DTX)

2215 250 2 NW Harbor View Lucas OH 4171 8348 Report from mPING: Tennis Ball (2.50 in.). (CLE)

2215 200 3 NW Harbor View Lucas OH 4172 8348 (CLE)

2216 200 2 NNW Harbor View Lucas OH 4172 8347 Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2216 UNK 2 NW Harbor View Lucas OH 4172 8348 Numerous large trees snapped and damage to a building. Possible tornado damage. (CLE)

2217 100 2 SE Ypsilanti Washtenaw MI 4222 8359 Hail fell at the intersection of S Grove St and S Harris Rd. (DTX)

2218 66 1 W Harbor View Lucas OH 4169 8347 Buoy station THRO1 Toledo. (CLE)

2230 125 Belleville Wayne MI 4220 8348 Picture of half dollar size hail on social media. (DTX)

2242 125 6 NNE Rocky Ridge Ottawa OH 4161 8317 (CLE)

2248 100 Oak Harbor Ottawa OH 4151 8315 Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2249 3 S Oak Harbor Ottawa OH 4147 8315 Preliminary NWS storm survey determined an EF-2 tornado with estimated peak winds of 130 mph and a path width of 200 yards occurred south of Oak Harbor in Ottawa County. (CLE)

2250 UNK 3 SSE Oak Harbor Ottawa OH 4147 8313 Damage to vehicles and farm buildings. Pictures via social media. Possible tornado damage. (CLE)

2252 UNK 6 SE Oak Harbor Sandusky OH 4144 8308 Corrects time on previous report from 6 SE Oak Harbor. Emergency manager reported storm damage in Rice Twp. Possible tornado. (CLE)

2257 UNK 2 S Oak Harbor Ottawa OH 4148 8315 Several reports of structural damage along and around State Route 19 south of Oak Harbor in Ottawa County. Damage includes siding damage ... outbuilding wall failure ... (CLE)

2318 UNK 5 ENE Fremont Sandusky OH 4138 8304 Multiple trees snapped and powerlines down along the Turnpike/I-80. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2320 UNK 4 W Castalia Sandusky OH 4140 8289 Outbuilding destroyed with debris scattered into field near US-6 and County Road 298. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2322 UNK 2 WSW Sandusky Erie OH 4144 8275 Corrects previous non-tstm wnd dmg report from 2 WSW Sandusky. Poles snapped along US-6. (CLE)

2327 UNK 4 N Green Springs Sandusky OH 4131 8305 Barn collapse. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2327 UNK Castalia Erie OH 4140 8281 Numerous trees and powerlines down. (CLE)

2329 175 Bellevue Sandusky OH 4128 8284 (CLE)

2329 150 1 W Bellevue Sandusky OH 4128 8286 (CLE)

2331 UNK Bellevue Huron OH 4128 8284 Corrects previous non-tstm wnd dmg report from Bellevue. Trees snapped along Northwest Street. (CLE)

2332 175 Bellevue Huron OH 4128 8284 A trained spotter reported golf ball sized hail near SR 269 and Lincoln Street in Bellevue. (CLE)

2340 UNK 1 N Bellevue Huron OH 4128 8283 Large trees downed just north of Bellevue. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2349 100 Bascom Seneca OH 4113 8329 Trained spotter reported quarter sized hail in Bascom. (CLE)

2351 UNK 5 NNW North Fairfield Huron OH 4117 8264 Large tree uprooted. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2351 UNK 1 N Bellevue Sandusky OH 4128 8284 Multiple trees down north of Bellevue. Report obtained on social media and time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2352 175 2 W Tiffin Seneca OH 4112 8321 Golf ball sized hail between Bascom and Tiffin. (CLE)

2352 125 5 W Tiffin Seneca OH 4112 8328 Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.). (CLE)

2353 100 Tiffin Seneca OH 4112 8318 (CLE)

2353 UNK 5 S Monroeville Huron OH 4118 8268 Damage to houses and outbuildings. Numerous trees and powerlines down. Possible tornado damage. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2355 UNK 2 S Norwalk Huron OH 4121 8261 Metal Barn partially destroyed on Ridge Road. (CLE)

0004 UNK 3 SE North Fairfield Huron OH 4107 8256 Corrects previous non-tstm wnd dmg report from 3 SE North Fairfield. House damaged on Edward Road. (CLE)

0006 100 Tiffin Seneca OH 4111 8318 Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.). (CLE)

0032 175 Savannah Ashland OH 4097 8236 (CLE)

0032 UNK PIQUA MIAMI OH 4015 8425 TREE DOWN ON HOUSE. (ILN)

0035 125 2 E Bailey Lakes Ashland OH 4096 8231 Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.). (CLE)

0037 225 Bailey Lakes Ashland OH 4095 8236 Picture submitted via social media. (CLE)

0046 150 3 NNE Polk Ashland OH 4099 8218 Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

0047 3 WSW Polk Ashland OH 4094 8227 Preliminary NWS storm survey determined an EF-0 tornado with estimated winds of 85 mph and an estimated width of 300 yards touched down 1 mile north-northeast of Nankin. (CLE)

0049 175 3 E Bailey Lakes Ashland OH 4094 8229 Report from mPING: Golf Ball (1.75 in.). (CLE)

0050 175 3 SW Polk Ashland OH 4090 8223 (CLE)

0050 UNK 3 WSW Polk Ashland OH 4093 8227 Numerous trees down along SR 58 between County Rd 801 and 852. (CLE)

0114 UNK 5 SSE Congress Wayne OH 4086 8203 Tree downed across Smithville Western Road in Chester Twp. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

0115 UNK S PLAIN CITY MADISON OH 4011 8327 TREE DOWN. (ILN)

0116 UNK 7 E Jeromesville Wayne OH 4080 8207 Tree down on South Firestone Road. (CLE)

0120 UNK 4 NW Wooster Wayne OH 4086 8198 Tree down on Mechanicsburg Road. (CLE)

0125 150 2 ENE Wooster Wayne OH 4083 8190 Reported via photo on social media. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

0130 UNK 2 ESE Crestline Richland OH 4078 8270 Corrects previous non-tstm wnd dmg report from 2 ESE Crestline. Tree reported down on North Horning Road. (CLE)

0136 UNK 1 E Lucas Richland OH 4070 8241 Large tree down on Route 39. (CLE)

0149 UNK 6 SE Oak Harbor Sandusky OH 4144 8308 Emergency management reported storm damage in Rice Twp. Possible tornado. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

0212 UNK 4 SW Bellville Richland OH 4058 8257 Two trees downed on property southwest of Bellville. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

0225 100 5 WNW Dover Tuscarawas OH 4056 8156 (PBZ)

0225 UNK Killbuck Holmes OH 4050 8198 Tree down. (CLE)

0231 125 1 W Dover Tuscarawas OH 4053 8150 (PBZ)

0235 100 2 S Stone Creek Tuscarawas OH 4037 8156 (PBZ)

0239 100 New Philadelphia Tuscarawas OH 4049 8144 (PBZ)

0247 125 Tuscarawas Tuscarawas OH 4040 8140 (PBZ)

0249 100 Gnadenhutten Tuscarawas OH 4036 8143 (PBZ)

0250 UNK Bexley Franklin OH 3996 8293 Numerous trees and tree limbs down in Bexley - time estimated by radar. (ILN)

0251 175 1 S Gnadenhutten Tuscarawas OH 4035 8143 Estimated size and time estimated based on radar. (PBZ)

0255 100 Uhrichsville Tuscarawas OH 4040 8135 (PBZ)

0306 100 SE FAIRFIELD BEACH FAIRFIELD OH 3991 8248 TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR (ILN)

0332 100 Cadiz Harrison OH 4027 8099 (PBZ)

0337 UNK New Athens Harrison OH 4018 8100 Department of Transportation reporting downed trees along State Route 9 near New Athens. (PBZ)

0341 UNK 1 NNE York Jefferson OH 4027 8086 A few trees down on County Road 12. (PBZ)

[tron777]

Tornado warning for Sandusky earlier. Classic storm here in Westlake Ohio this evening. The wind today before the storm was light so getting around on the lake was easy. We'll see how Day 1 shakes out tomorrow. I am in boat 40 due in at 3:15. My brother in boat 20 due in at 3pm tomorrow.

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

Day 1 of the tournament has been cancelled due to wind and wave conditions. We will fish tomorrow for a 1 day shoot out.

[tpweather]

Day 1 of the tournament has been cancelled due to wind and wave conditions. We will fish tomorrow for a 1 day shoot out.

Good Morning and that is a shame. Leaving Greenville either late Monday or Tuesday. The Euro is showing between 8 and 14 inches of rainfall next week though the gfs and cmc somewhat less because they get the upper system out of here somewhat quicker. Nice send off and really the 4 years we were down here have been so wet and why not end it on that note.

[cloudy72]

Had a nice storm blow through my hood around 1:00 am this morning. Rainfall of 0.22".

[tron777]

Day 1 of the tournament has been cancelled due to wind and wave conditions. We will fish tomorrow for a 1 day shoot out.

Good Morning and that is a shame. Leaving Greenville either late Monday or Tuesday. The Euro is showing between 8 and 14 inches of rainfall next week though the gfs and cmc somewhat less because they get the upper system out of here somewhat quicker. Nice send off and really the 4 years we were down here have been so wet and why not end it on that note.

It is Tim but it may work to our advantage. Our team has a spot now that no one else knows about. A 22 mile run from the blast off site so we need it calmer tomorrow to make that run more efficiently and give us more time to fish. Safe travels Tim when you come home!! I'm glad not to have to fish on Father's Day. I don't go back to work until Tuesday so I'll have time to get caught up on yardwork.

[MVWxObserver]

My gauge picked up .18" from yesterday and last night for a combo of 2.28" since Sun.

[MVWxObserver]

I heard today that the FL Panhandle like in and near Pensacola e.g. have had around a foot of rain with more today and tonight!!

[tpweather]

Good Morning and the pattern is somewhat different for this time of year because of how quickly the El Nino developed. It seems to me when most of these events start the strengthening begins later in summer and early fall but this year a quick start. No doubt an El Nino pattern as we see the south wet and you get the dryness in the central and northern plains and really that spreads east over the Ohio Valley even there has been some rainfall it looks like a drier pattern next week.

Concerning the Hurricane season and we have conflicting items going on with the Atlantic being very warm as this past winter after December we had very few cold spells so the waters stayed milder than normal. Saying that we have the strong winds going from west to east and sure this usually happens early in the summer but breaks down but will it happen this year is still a big question mark.

[MVWxObserver]

https://www.whio.com/news/state-and-reg ... GNZW5JDYU/

6 touchdowns in northern OH Thurs-Fri!

[tpweather]

https://www.whio.com/news/state-and-reg ... GNZW5JDYU/

6 touchdowns in northern OH Thurs-Fri!

Eric, never let Les arrive nearby as he will bring about some bad weather. Hopefully everyone is doing well and though they can get some severe weather tornado's are not that common. They do get some gusting winds off the lakes though.

[tron777]

Well folks.... I got 52nd place out of a hundred some boats and my brother was in 37th. It was tough finding big fish. Our fish moved on us that we found during prefishing. I'll be home tonight and talking weather again with you all tomorrow. Weather was nice today for the tournament at least.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and down to the last few days in SC. The weather has been wonderful but rain moving in on Monday and we plan on leaving that afternoon. Saw something from the Louisville NWS and so far this year Louisville,Bowling Green and Lexington have not had a low temperature of 70 or above. Very late in the year and of course with the drier conditions this has led to cooler nighttime lows. The heat in the south central and along the western GOM is quite hot even for them. Reason is the heat is not moving to far north and you get such a smaller area that roasts. Not seeing that kind of heat moving this way and though milder over the next 10 days or so we will be at normal to slightly below normal for the most part.

[Bgoney]

Good Evening and down to the last few days in SC. The weather has been wonderful but rain moving in on Monday and we plan on leaving that afternoon. Saw something from the Louisville NWS and so far this year Louisville,Bowling Green and Lexington have not had a low temperature of 70 or above. Very late in the year and of course with the drier conditions this has led to cooler nighttime lows. The heat in the south central and along the western GOM is quite hot even for them. Reason is the heat is not moving to far north and you get such a smaller area that roasts. Not seeing that kind of heat moving this way and though milder over the next 10 days or so we will be at normal to slightly below normal for the most part.

The 500mb pattern continues to look as bad as you can get for beneficial rains for the OV/Midwest. Ridging in Mexico/southern Texas has the ring of fire/ridge riders well to the south along a stalled out boundary, keeping the GOM still closed for us , compared to normal. At times the ridging hooks up with another ridge near the Canadian border/Michigan which keeps giving us northern flow/ hence wild fire smoke. It really looks bad for widespread rains from Cincinnati northward for the foreseeable future.

[MVWxObserver]

HAPPY FATHER'S DAY TO ALL AV DADS!!

[tpweather]

Good Morning and how much rain do we get with the upper system over the next few days. As usual the models started shifting this system further and further south until overnight they pushed it a tad further north. Will this be enough to get us in on some decent rainfall. Could be a sharp cutoff from having less than 1/10th to some areas most likely south getting over 1 inch. Then mid-week it seems the upper system is over the Carolina's but may be heading back this way. So my guess is some folks in the Ohio Valley will end up with some decent amounts while others especially north of here may get little to any rain.

Temps will be determined by the amount of thicker cloud cover as well. A day in clouds and rain you stay in the upper 60's and low 70's but if you get a day with sunshine temps can get into the mid 80's.

We have made strides in the above average temps for the year and we are about 2 degrees above normal which is big dent in the above normal temps for the year. Of course much of that in the past month has been overnight lows getting quite cool and for a decent period.

Precip we are below normal and the timing of the rain makes it worse since the past month to month and a half has seen above normal rainfall go to below normal and this is the time we need the rain. Hopefully we get some this week because sooner or later the normal summer pattern will set in and then it becomes more hit and miss for a few months.

[young pup]

Good Evening and down to the last few days in SC. The weather has been wonderful but rain moving in on Monday and we plan on leaving that afternoon. Saw something from the Louisville NWS and so far this year Louisville,Bowling Green and Lexington have not had a low temperature of 70 or above. Very late in the year and of course with the drier conditions this has led to cooler nighttime lows. The heat in the south central and along the western GOM is quite hot even for them. Reason is the heat is not moving to far north and you get such a smaller area that roasts. Not seeing that kind of heat moving this way and though milder over the next 10 days or so we will be at normal to slightly below normal for the most part.

The 500mb pattern continues to look as bad as you can get for beneficial rains for the OV/Midwest. Ridging in Mexico/southern Texas has the ring of fire/ridge riders well to the south along a stalled out boundary, keeping the GOM still closed for us , compared to normal. At times the ridging hooks up with another ridge near the Canadian border/Michigan which keeps giving us northern flow/ hence wild fire smoke. It really looks bad for widespread rains from Cincinnati northward for the foreseeable future.

I really need to get better at looking at this part of the models. Just by looking at the precip maps for the next 10 dayson the 0z. It looks like CVG,Day,Cmh all are in the 1 to 2 inch range of rainfall. But, your posts seems to hint as it being more dryer?

[Bgoney]

Good Evening and down to the last few days in SC. The weather has been wonderful but rain moving in on Monday and we plan on leaving that afternoon. Saw something from the Louisville NWS and so far this year Louisville,Bowling Green and Lexington have not had a low temperature of 70 or above. Very late in the year and of course with the drier conditions this has led to cooler nighttime lows. The heat in the south central and along the western GOM is quite hot even for them. Reason is the heat is not moving to far north and you get such a smaller area that roasts. Not seeing that kind of heat moving this way and though milder over the next 10 days or so we will be at normal to slightly below normal for the most part.

The 500mb pattern continues to look as bad as you can get for beneficial rains for the OV/Midwest. Ridging in Mexico/southern Texas has the ring of fire/ridge riders well to the south along a stalled out boundary, keeping the GOM still closed for us , compared to normal. At times the ridging hooks up with another ridge near the Canadian border/Michigan which keeps giving us northern flow/ hence wild fire smoke. It really looks bad for widespread rains from Cincinnati northward for the foreseeable future.

I really need to get better at looking at this part of the models. Just by looking at the precip maps for the next 10 dayson the 0z. It looks like CVG,Day,Cmh all are in the 1 to 2 inch range of rainfall. But, your posts seems to hint as it being more dryer?

12z NAM now parks the low near Louisville early week , if that is correct cvgland might see some better scattered beneficial rains , before the pattern drs back out

[tpweather]

Good Evening and down to the last few days in SC. The weather has been wonderful but rain moving in on Monday and we plan on leaving that afternoon. Saw something from the Louisville NWS and so far this year Louisville,Bowling Green and Lexington have not had a low temperature of 70 or above. Very late in the year and of course with the drier conditions this has led to cooler nighttime lows. The heat in the south central and along the western GOM is quite hot even for them. Reason is the heat is not moving to far north and you get such a smaller area that roasts. Not seeing that kind of heat moving this way and though milder over the next 10 days or so we will be at normal to slightly below normal for the most part.

The 500mb pattern continues to look as bad as you can get for beneficial rains for the OV/Midwest. Ridging in Mexico/southern Texas has the ring of fire/ridge riders well to the south along a stalled out boundary, keeping the GOM still closed for us , compared to normal. At times the ridging hooks up with another ridge near the Canadian border/Michigan which keeps giving us northern flow/ hence wild fire smoke. It really looks bad for widespread rains from Cincinnati northward for the foreseeable future.

I really need to get better at looking at this part of the models. Just by looking at the precip maps for the next 10 dayson the 0z. It looks like CVG,Day,Cmh all are in the 1 to 2 inch range of rainfall. But, your posts seems to hint as it being more dryer?

12z NAM now parks the low near Louisville early week , if that is correct cvgland might see some better scattered beneficial rains , before the pattern drs back out

Models have problems with these upper systems so it becomes a now cast. We try and get clues from the models but the last several days had this further and further south until overnight and moved it back north. Sure we get upper systems this time of year and they can deliver some nice rain but you must be in the correct place. My guess is the further north and west this week the less likely for the heavier rains though the first round may help out folks towards Indy but not to much further north and west. Love to see 1-3 inches over the next 10 days and its not totally out of line as we know and thundershower can put down a decent amount. Not worried about any flooding except in your normal downpour but we have been dry this spring so creeks,streams,lakes and rivers are fine.

[tron777]

Good afternoon all! Been busy unpacking from the trip today and watering plants outside. Got to mow either this afternoon or tomorrow before the rains potentially hit. ILN's zone forecast product for me is going with 40% POPS later tonight, 80% tomorrow into tomorrow night with a lingering shot on Tues.

NAM gives CVG 2" plus which is likely overdone. The GFS has 0.84" and the Euro (6Z run) is coming in with around a half inch. So a nice drink upcoming if guidance is correct. I will go with 0.50 to locally 1"+ possible with this system and split the difference. Then... do we get another system for the end of next week? Fri into Sat may offer up scattered chances at this early look. Highs mainly in the 80s expected with lows in the 60s. Pretty standard for the summer months.

[tron777]

Wow! The 12Z Euro now going with 1.5" at CVG thru Monday. Then lingering chances on Tues and even Wed as well. Would love to see this pan out. No change from my earlier call though.

[tpweather]

Hey Les and glad you made it back home. The models came back north overnight and the trend continues. Again probably a sharp cutoff but where that finally sets up is to close to call. The Euro had those insane numbers for Greenville and over 8 inches which again is way to high but it does show plenty of moisture available. They could have rain for 5 straight days down here and they are already soaked.