June 2023 Weather Discussion

[cloudy72]

Managed 0.06” here yesterday evening. Baby steps!

[Bgoney]

Nothing measurable here.

IMG_0348.png

IMG_0349.jpeg

[tpweather]

Good Morning and wow 0.12 inches of liquid gold. At least one day not to water the plants lol. Even some fog this morning but that will burn off and we are looking at a wonderful few days of mild temps and low humidity. Is this the kick start to a new pattern and it seems to be the case and hopefully by later Sunday into Monday a bigger system will give us a good dose of rainfall and hopefully the pattern switches up so we have chances of rain every 3-4 days.

No doubt this has been a long stretch with little rainfall and happening in late May and early June is unusual because that is a time where we tend to get quite a bit of rainfall before the jet makes its way further north. This year though is different and will the jet coming off the pacific and head across the USA provide rainfall for folks across the country. This has a chance because the jet is stronger than normal for this time of year and hopefully this will bring a rainy second half of June.

Bgoney great map as usual. Two years to point out and first being 2007 and that was probably the worse short term drought that I can remember and ended up losing a burning bush that season. The second is 1977 and why is the question. That season later in July and August was quite strange and just remember cooler period and rainfall for that time of year. Will that repeat itself and of course no way to say yes but I still believe with the emerging El Nino a second half of summer may be cool leading to a cool fall.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Rainfall totals from my hood:

CVG - 0.11"
Me - 0.15"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.10"

A little on the foggy side here and in those areas that saw some light rain last night. Sunday is our next best chance. Good luck to all esp. those that didn't get a drop. My monthly total so far for June is now at 0.25" I'm one of the fortunate ones. (0.10" fell last Sat on 6/3)

[tpweather]

So what will a new pattern look like and again maybe some hope with this post but here is what I see over the next several weeks. First is the southern plains will start to get hot and of course that is not unusual this time of year but is delayed by several weeks in a so called normal season. I believe the pacific jet will be stronger than normal and once we break the block systems can come across the country. The northern plains I expect to head to a cool pattern and with the heat expected in the southern plains and an active jet this could lead to a somewhat stormy pattern later this month. Again need to attach the block which is never easy but this season with the emerging El Nino I believe it should happen. No doubt this spring has been a typical El Nino though its not considered a true El Nino yet but will shortly. Having the south wet and a area just north of there that is dry is very typical in EL Nino's and then followed by a rainier period the folks who have been dry. Do we see severe weather with this type of pattern and sure its possible but time will only tell how strong of a severe season we will end up with but my guess is with the stronger jet the winds which picked up yesterday for a brief period will hamper us for the second half of June. Yes it will get humid but if that includes rain I will gladly take several weeks of the higher humidity.

[tron777]

Great post Tim! Also curious to see if we get a more moist / wet pattern from mid month on. Hoping that is the case to stop the drought as quickly as it started. Otherwise, I like the pleasant temps and low humidity as a nice trade off.

[tpweather]

Great post Tim! Also curious to see if we get a more moist / wet pattern from mid month on. Hoping that is the case to stop the drought as quickly as it started. Otherwise, I like the pleasant temps and low humidity as a nice trade off.

Good Morning Les and you are correct about the trade off. Normally we get heat waves because areas usually either in the southwest or south central states get hot and that heat moves north and east. No doubt a late start for those areas and the southwest still looks like no major heat in sight which is very unusual. I believe Texas and Oklahoma start to get hot over the next week or so and does that heat expand or do we have the pacific jet breaking down the block and we end up with a stormier pattern. Every year,every El Nino are different but we try to see what has happened in the past to give us some clues but again Mother Nature as always has the last say. If for some reason we don't get the stormier weather later this month then late June into early July could be quite hot as a drier ground would be able to heat up quicker. Just look at yesterday where we rose 32 degrees and yes the dew points were in the upper 50's but that was quite the rise.

[tron777]

Tim... I agree with you. Over the next week, the warmth should build over TX and the Plains States thanks to the Rex Block pattern that we are currently in. In time, the core of the ridging / heat does look to stay down in TX / S Plains region which should put us in line for t-storm activity one would think as time goes on. I think starting next week, we start to get more active as things slowly begin to change.

[airwolf76]

Great post Tim! Also curious to see if we get a more moist / wet pattern from mid month on. Hoping that is the case to stop the drought as quickly as it started. Otherwise, I like the pleasant temps and low humidity as a nice trade off.

if things dont change at some point this month we are going to have problems. things are already pretty bad with even fires breaking out. the smoke and haze in my area is unreal and to think those fires are all the way up in Canada

[tpweather]

Great post Tim! Also curious to see if we get a more moist / wet pattern from mid month on. Hoping that is the case to stop the drought as quickly as it started. Otherwise, I like the pleasant temps and low humidity as a nice trade off.

if things dont change at some point this month we are going to have problems. things are already pretty bad with even fires breaking out. the smoke and haze in my area is unreal and to think those fires are all the way up in Canada

Interesting topic and the smoke from the fires. The amount of haze is rather large and also this will keep temps in check during the day because of the haze. If we have any major volcano's erupt in the far northern Hemisphere this can put a lid on temps for weeks or even months across much of the northern hemisphere.

[tron777]

Good afternoon all! 71 at CVG as of 1pm. There is still a lot of haze in the air even behind the front from last night. That front has stalled to our SW as the modeling showed and that is where those 1/2"+ totals are occurring. For us... pleasant weather can be expected until our next rain threat which will be on Sunday.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and speaking of the smoke NYC LaGuardia airport has stop service this afternoon. Don't mess with Mother Nature as she always wins the fight

[tron777]

Good Afternoon and speaking of the smoke NYC LaGuardia airport has stop service this afternoon. Don't mess with Mother Nature as she always wins the fight

Looks like Newark, NJ Airport is also impacted. Wow!

[tron777]

12Z Euro has around a third of an inch of rain with the Sunday system at CVG. 12Z GFS had around a 1/2". NAM doesn't go out for enough yet.

[MVWxObserver]

Haven't checked my gauge but probably around a tenth here, too.

On the Fox News NYC clips it looks like a color of orange sherbet from the smoky smog. Its their worst air quality in about 38 years!

There's also a Code Red air quality alert down into NC where my sister Retha, niece Janae, bil Mike e.g. reside.

Masks don't help because they have to be specialized for that kind of smoky soup.

My sister, her mil and a friend of theirs wear masks to go to the mall to walk.

[tpweather]

Les we talked about how the heaviest rain would be to the southwest near Louisville and guess what they have received over an inch of rain at the airport. We sure could have used that but timing is always so key in getting late spring and summertime rains.

[Bgoney]

IMG_0350.jpeg

[Browneyedgirl]

This is LaGuardia this afternoon. Wow!!

IMG_5101.jpeg

[tron777]

Les we talked about how the heaviest rain would be to the southwest near Louisville and guess what they have received over an inch of rain at the airport. We sure could have used that but timing is always so key in getting late spring and summertime rains.

Yep! We knew the front would stall for a short amount of time as a piece of energy rippled along it from NW to SE. Models did a great job with that particular system. For a change...

[tpweather]

Looks like the smoke is heading this way. Next 3 days or so could really have some nice sunsets but sort of murky during the day. My question is will the smoke keep temps down during the day and somewhat higher at night. Not sure models have smoke in their database but I could be wrong.

[tron777]

IMG_0350.jpeg

A very telling map. Hoping we can start to slowly turn it around a bit. If we started to get normal precip by mid month, that would be a wonderful improvement!

[tron777]

This is LaGuardia this afternoon. Wow!!IMG_5101.jpeg

That looks like a pic you'd see from a big city in India or China visibility wise.

[tpweather]

IMG_0350.jpeg

A very telling map. Hoping we can start to slowly turn it around a bit. If we started to get normal precip by mid month, that would be a wonderful improvement!

Very telling plus you can see Mother Nature balancing things out with some of the wettest years in the western plains and rockies plus much of the southern USA is doing better than normal. Of course the population is greater where the dryness is located with this go around.

[tron777]

Looks like the smoke is heading this way. Next 3 days or so could really have some nice sunsets but sort of murky during the day. My question is will the smoke keep temps down during the day and somewhat higher at night. Not sure models have smoke in their database but I could be wrong.

I have no idea if they account for that or not Tim. A great question that I could not even begin to answer. I think the haze has kept temps down and will continue to do so. The overnight lows may not be impacted as much since we are not talking actual cloud cover here to keep the heat in. The reduction in visibility due to the smoke, absolutely helps to partially block some of the sun's energy. Some being the keyword. Clouds are still way more effective as you know.

[tron777]

I've got to run to the grocery store for my trip next week so will be back later. However, thinking low 50s or so at CVG for the low tonight. Upper 40s in rural areas I think are very possible. Let's see how it goes.