May 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

76 in my hood today. Going with 78-80 tomorrow. Then going with 68-72 Sunday due to clouds and maybe a shower???? God forbid... Then bring on those 80s! Can anyone get a sneaky 90? CVG for the contest to kick off June??? Getting 89'ed is certainly on the table.

[tron777]

56 right now here.... going to be firing up the smoker shortly! Baby back ribs anyone?

[young pup]

This dry spell is way to early. I need it at the end of June first week of July so I can go on vacation July 14th. Have a good Memorial Day Weekend everyone. Got a parade today in front of the house then of to your neck of the woods for a pool party. Hope the water is warm.

[MVWxObserver]

Great day for a wedding as my cousin Taylor and her fiance Caleb tie the knot in Whitestown, IN!

Currently 55 and going for around 77 today here in G'ville.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and another nice day in store though clouds will be on the increase throughout the day. Sunday and those upper lows can cause problems with models and this one is no different. Earlier in the week it showed some rainfall then it reversed to a dry weekend and guess what it went back to something in the middle. I have seen these upper lows really keep temps down in late May and early June. How far does the steady rain advance from southeast to northwest. This could be where Indy has no rain and temps in the mid-upper 70's while folks in Lexington have a steady rain and temps in the mid-upper 50's. Trying to figure the folks in between is the hard part as the rain and clouds will only go so far northwest. Many times the models don't quite pick up the northwest trend so locally at CVG I believe we see some rainfall but there will be a sharp cutoff from having just a few showers and a steadier rainfall. My guess in the I-275 area temps will be in the mid-upper 60's but again the further southeast you go the better chance of a decent rain which we need plus temps will reflect the folks that are in the steadier rainfall.

[tron777]

I like 70 tomorrow with a small rain chance. SE counties have a better shot and may hold in the 60s. NW counties could see low to mid 70s.

[MVWxObserver]

A nice forecast for the 107th running of the Indy 500 tomorrow with a high around 76.

[tpweather]

I like 70 tomorrow with a small rain chance. SE counties have a better shot and may hold in the 60s. NW counties could see low to mid 70s.

Good Morning Les and even today folks further north and west will see the highest temps as the higher clouds roll in. So Indy may hit 80 while Lexington may end up around 70. I know its the holiday weekend but rooting for some rainfall and even 1/4 inch beats nothing which seems possible. Of course down in SC the monsoon season that started 4 years ago continues and expecting anywhere between 1-3 inches down there which has been the case many times. Only 3 more weeks and can get away from the onslaught of rain.

[tron777]

I like 70 tomorrow with a small rain chance. SE counties have a better shot and may hold in the 60s. NW counties could see low to mid 70s.

Good Morning Les and even today folks further north and west will see the highest temps as the higher clouds roll in. So Indy may hit 80 while Lexington may end up around 70. I know its the holiday weekend but rooting for some rainfall and even 1/4 inch beats nothing which seems possible. Of course down in SC the monsoon season that started 4 years ago continues and expecting anywhere between 1-3 inches down there which has been the case many times. Only 3 more weeks and can get away from the onslaught of rain.

ILN raised POPS for my hood to 50% tomorrow and upper 60s. An encouraging sign.,.. I want the moisture too Tim. Last chance before the first bit of heat of the young summer season comes in. Lawns need it big time!

[tron777]

Latest Vegas errr I mean model output for rain at CVG for Sunday.

12Z NAM - Dry
12Z GFS - 0.07"
06Z Euro - 0.08"
12Z HRRR: - 0.05"
9Z SREF: 0.16"

[tpweather]

Latest Vegas errr I mean model output for rain at CVG for Sunday.

12Z NAM - Dry
12Z GFS - 0.07"
06Z Euro - 0.08"
12Z HRRR: - 0.05"
9Z SREF: 0.16"

Les the biggest problem is we have such a dry air mass still around. Yes it will moisten up but sometimes that takes away from the final totals. I believe 1/10 -1/4 looks like a good bet in the local I-275 area. Again further southeast a steadier rain could raise totals and of course northwest little to none expected .

[tron777]

Latest Vegas errr I mean model output for rain at CVG for Sunday.

12Z NAM - Dry
12Z GFS - 0.07"
06Z Euro - 0.08"
12Z HRRR: - 0.05"
9Z SREF: 0.16"

Les the biggest problem is we have such a dry air mass still around. Yes it will moisten up but sometimes that takes away from the final totals. I believe 1/10 -1/4 looks like a good bet in the local I-275 area. Again further southeast a steadier rain could raise totals and of course northwest little to none expected .

I'd be thrilled with 0.10" or more here. I'm not expecting much. Further east and south the better, more north and west, drier.

[tron777]

76 again today. Clouds have increased. Air mass still dry however. Speaking of dry, the 12Z Euro has now joined the NAM in that regard.

[Bgoney]

In the midst of a fairly unusual long stretch of beautiful weather(for the most part) for much of the Midwest/OV, bad thing of course is The 500mb pattern is as bad as it can get for widespread soaking rains for the corn belt regions.

[tron777]

Radar shows light rain over my hood, but the air mass is so dry it's a virga shower today! Clouds will keep temps in check today thank goodness.

[tron777]

I'm actually seeing a few drops make it to the ground now. 59 / 50

[tron777]

Some Memorial Day Climo from the boys:

https://www.weather.gov/iln/cvg_memorialday_climo

[tron777]

Some thoughts from Larry Cosgrove this morning:

https://lnkd.in/g6bpZP9
The WEATHERAmerica Newsletter is online!

1) SuperTyphoon Mawar is weakening and recurving over the western Pacific Basin, and appears to be exporting moisture and energy to both the polar and subtropical jet streams. Mawar itself will not impact the USA, but could alter the upper flow enough to favor cool weather overtaking the eastern two-thirds of North America in the medium range.

2) The pesky disturbance in the vicinity of the Carolinas could ruin vacations along the coastline from Hilton Head GA all the way to Ocean City MD through Memorial Day. Another impulse may take shape off of the Texas Gulf Coast as well, with increased risks for thunderstorms.

3) I do not see any heat waves above the Mexican border through at least mid-June. But a small subtropical high, somewhat like the summer of 2009, could bump up into Texas later in the month and through early July. Most of the U.S. stays in the normal to somewhat cool phase for much of this summer.

4) No revisions in the tropical cyclone forecast, since the lingering lower latitude westerlies may shear apart many cases of warm-core cyclogenesis. Blame it on El Nino, if you will.

5) The major heat threat is across the Levant, Iran and South Asia.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a touch of light rain and just enough to have the wipers needed every 3 minutes or so. No doubt temps will be kept lower where the thicker clouds are located today. Still going .10-.25 in the local area and again south and east totals could be in the .25-.50. The rain will only go so far west today and I-65 is probably a good stopping point. Of course the further west you go towards I-65 the rain is lighter.

What about the heat late in the week and overnight the gfs has lowered temps by a few degrees but the Euro is bringing in the heat. The Euro which again does better in the winter has a very hard time with heat and is almost always so far off that you wondered what kind of info is being put into the model. This just makes that model look silly.

Why such the dryness in our area this spring and we have a split flow and the STJ has remained very far south for this time of year but again with the onset of El Nino I understand why this is happening. Hopefully by mid-summer the El Nino continues to strengthen and this could lead to area in the central plains to the mid-Atlantic that has some decent rainfall as the westerlies will be moving quite fast for that time of year. To early to say this will happen but at least the chances go up with the current El Nino.

[tron777]

As usual, the Euro is probably overdone with the eat just like it did last summer.

[MVWxObserver]

In the midst of a fairly unusual long stretch of beautiful weather(for the most part) for much of the Midwest/OV, bad thing of course is The 500mb pattern is as bad as it can get for widespread soaking rains for the corn belt regions.

On WU **knocking on wood** the latest it shows for up this way in Greenville e.g. for the next rain chance is about Tues June 6th.

[MVWxObserver]

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Southern Rockies to Southern Plains vicinity...

A period of increased severe potential may develop over portions of
the southern High Plains into central/southern TX Days 4-6/Wed-Fri
and possibly into the weekend. Latest guidance suggests a series of
western shortwave upper troughs will move across the
Southwest/northern Mexico toward the southern Rockies during this
time. This will bring enhanced west/southwesterly mid/upper flow to
portions of the southern High Plains. Meanwhile, seasonal
boundary-layer moisture will persist on south/southeasterly
low-level flow in response to surface lee troughing. Some evidence
among forecast guidance suggests another blocking pattern will
develop across the Southeast (though perhaps weaker than what has
persisted the past week or two). As a result of this overall
pattern, a corridor of severe potential could develop/persist over
the southern Plains vicinity for much of the period. That being
said, confidence in 15 percent or greater probabilities is low at
this time given the recent trend in guidance toward this solution
and forecast guidance notoriously performing poorly in
developing/breaking down blocking patterns, especially amid
low-amplitude systems. Trends will be monitored and severe
probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks.

..Leitman.. 05/28/2023

[airwolf76]

looks like its going to be a pretty nice day here. i think i will get the charcoal grilled fired up in a bit

[tron777]

Lower 80s here today with the mid and upper 80s lurking in the the distance.

[MVWxObserver]

Looking at around 82 for here in Greenville today.

Currently 55 here

ERNEST STEWART "BUD" CALLIS ~ Great Uncle

RICHARD GLENN CALLIS ~ Great Uncle

LAWRENCE C. CALLIS ~ Great Uncle

LARRY PAUL VAUGHN ~ Uncle (Mom's brother)

JERRY GLENN NESTER ~ Friend (Sister's father-in-law)

And to the many others who have fought and sacrificed in the NAME OF FREEDOM FOR OUR COUNTRY.