May 2023 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

My gauge picked up .55" from this morning.

The Redlegs and fans are probably having a "rain delay" from sheer shock at how the game is going today and its currently only in the 4th inning!

Currently 77 here in G'ville.

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

[MVWxObserver]

1248 3 N NEW ALBANY FLOYD IN 3834 8582 *** 2 INJ *** NWS STORM SURVEY CONFIRMED AN EF-1 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE NATURAL SCIENCE AND NURSING BUILDING ON THE CAMPUS OF INDIANA UNIVERSITY SOUTHEAST. (LMK)

1252 UNK 3 NNE NEW ALBANY FLOYD IN 3834 8582 DAMAGE TO CARRIAGE HOUSE APARTMENT BUILDINGS ... INCLUDING A ROOF BEING BLOWN OFF. AT LEAST 4 TELEPHONE POLES HAVE BEEN SNAPPED. CURRENTLY AN ACTIVE SCENE. (LMK)

1301 UNK 4 NE BRIDGEPORT FLOYD IN 3822 8587 THE SHOOTING CLUB AT THE FARM HAD WIND DAMAGE TO A STRUCTURE ... INCLUDING A ROOF BLOWN OFF ... AND TREE DAMAGE. (LMK)

1331 UNK 2 SW SHELBYVILLE SHELBY KY 3820 8526 REPORTS OF MULTIPLE BUILDINGS WITH DAMAGE ... INCLUDING A MACRO PLASTICS BUILDING THAT HAS LOST A ROOF. THE VALERO GAS STATION IN THE AREA HAS LOST ITS SIGN. (LMK)

1326 UNK 2 WSW SHELBYVILLE SHELBY KY 3820 8527 DAMAGE TO A GAS STATION WITH SOME OF THE SIGN DAMAGE NOTED DOWNWIND ON PEARCE INDUSTRIAL RD. ALSO SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE AT THE BLACK AND DECKER PLANT. (LMK)

[MVWxObserver]

https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/ ... e=645C6E04

A weather friend of mine on FB from Iowa named Matt posted a discussion by storm chaser Adam Lucio re an MCV system overnight tonight into Mon morning.

"Latest hi-res HRRR guidance modeling an incredibly mature MCV system overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. I’ll never not be wowed by signatures like this. Damaging winds would be the main threat."

[tron777]

Finally back home! We had a great party yesterday and the weather was great! Had about 60-70 people come out for the event. Looks like we got 1.39" of rain here at home since midnight. Wow!

[MVWxObserver]

CVG and DAY reached 76 and CMH 77 yesterday.

CVG reached 71 and both DAY and CMH 78 today.

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

Another good shot of strong to isolated severe t-storms later on today into tonight. Can't rule out a lingering storm tomorrow morning, especially southern counties but otherwise, that'll be a wrap until Friday and this coming weekend when more storm chances will be around. Temps will be in the 70s to low 80s with a couple of nights in the 40s and 50s early, with low 60s towards the end of the period. Looking good to get your crops in as long as they don't get washed out. Going to try and get that done this weekend.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and nice to see spring arrive with milder temps and rainfall. Models may be a little light on totals today but if you get under a thunderstorm those totals can rise quickly. Your forecast looks great and getting this rainfall is wonderful.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and nice to see spring arrive with milder temps and rainfall. Models may be a little light on totals today but if you get under a thunderstorm those totals can rise quickly. Your forecast looks great and getting this rainfall is wonderful.

Agreed Tim... this is such an important month for rainfall for plants to get strong and healthy before the real deal summertime heat arrives.

[tron777]

The extended range looks active with a lot of cold fronts dropping in so an active pattern certainly is in the cards for the next several weeks. No signs of big heat yet.

[tpweather]

The extended range looks active with a lot of cold fronts dropping in so an active pattern certainly is in the cards for the next several weeks. No signs of big heat yet.

I agree Les and this includes most of the USA. No doubt the heat has been mainly in India and southeast Asia which is normal for April and May but they have been hotter than normal and waiting for the monsoons that come usually in June and July. Europe has been colder than normal after a very mild winter like we saw in much of the eastern half of the USA. Looks like over the next 2 weeks we get into the grass mowing of about every 5 days or so which is fine by me until we start to heat up.

[tron777]

Current radar picture shows a line of t-storms in Eastern ILL moving our way. What happens with these or if a new line develops form an outflow boundary, etc. remains to be seen for us locally. We should get some heating going for the middle to upper 70s with perhaps an 80 in the SE ahead of the storms. NAM has t-storms dropping in from the NW this evening say around sunset or so. The HRRR model is a little later in the evening. We'll see!!!

[tron777]

The extended range looks active with a lot of cold fronts dropping in so an active pattern certainly is in the cards for the next several weeks. No signs of big heat yet.

I agree Les and this includes most of the USA. No doubt the heat has been mainly in India and southeast Asia which is normal for April and May but they have been hotter than normal and waiting for the monsoons that come usually in June and July. Europe has been colder than normal after a very mild winter like we saw in much of the eastern half of the USA. Looks like over the next 2 weeks we get into the grass mowing of about every 5 days or so which is fine by me until we start to heat up.

I would love for this pattern to persist all summer. Less 90s and more rain. Yes please! I'm really interested in seeing what this El Nino is going to do and how it impacts the pattern once it is in the drivers seat. I don't think that we will have to wait long. The Nino is coming on strong and will mean business.

[cloudy72]

Yes tonight definitely has my attention......

Screenshot 2023-05-08 085355.png

Screenshot 2023-05-08 085552.png

[tpweather]

I agree about the hail chances because the atmosphere looks really nice plus Sunday morning I had hail that was bigger than pea size for about 3-5 minutes. Tornado chances smaller but always a chance plus having any storm after dark can cause more problems. Again not a widespread outbreak of severe weather but a decent shot for some folks to get near severe limits.

[tron777]

With the low coming right thru the area, I agree with the hail risk being fairly decent as well as strong winds. Tornado threat is definitely on the lower end but not zero. Freezing levels have currently lowered to around 11,000 feet. Would like to see that lower even more as time goes on. We have some weak CAPE now developing over the Metro but the lapse rates are still poor and any good shear / spin is still well off to the West, much closer to the actual cold front.

[tron777]

Latest thinking from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MCS sliding southeast across Indiana this morning will likely
brush across southwest portions of our area through late
morning and into early afternoon. With just some minor elevated
instability across our area, we should continue to see an
overall weakening trend with this activity as it moves through
our southwest.

In the wake of the MCS, we will likely see some subsidence and
lingering remnant clouds into this afternoon across our area.
This may help mitigate additional shower and thunderstorm
activity through at least mid afternoon. Highs today will range
from the lower 70s north to the upper 70s south. As dewpoints
slowly increase into the low to mid 60s, the airmass will slowly
recover with some better instabilities developing southwest to
northeast across our area. With a weak surface low/wave riding
east toward our area, we should see more widespread shower and
thunderstorm development late this afternoon and into this
evening.

[tron777]

73 / 62 as of 2pm at CVG. Still waiting on better severe parameters to arrive so if we see anything it won't be until late in the day / evening in my opinion here locally. What's left from the ILL action is over us now and has just about completely fallen apart. Some clouds because of it but more sun should appear soon from the west.

[tron777]

So far, tyhe zone of concern will be over Southern MO, ILL, SW IN, and into West KY.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0202.html

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

2201 2 NW FLORA CARROLL IN 4057 8656 PUBLIC REPORTED A LANDSPOUT TORNADO. VIDEO FROM SOCIAL MEDIA SHOWS LANDSPOUT ON THE GROUND IN AN OPEN FIELD. (IND)

[tron777]

Most of the action is over S MO with just scattered cells so far S of Evansville and a few more turning SE N of I-70 in IN and Ohio.

[tron777]

77 in my hood today. Dry weather beginning tomorrow thru Thurs so get 'er done with your outside plans then. I have numerus things to do. Harvest the rest of my spinach tomorrow. Clean the shed gutters Wed and mow the lawn Thursday before the next round of rains come. Then in between t-storms, get the crops in!

[tron777]

In the extended, I am watching for a shot of cold air around the 20th which may give us a couple of days with highs in the 60s lows in the 40s. Upper 30s maybe rural areas? Don't think Cincy will see frost but northern counties I'd keep that one eye open look before planting.