April 2023 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

Ohio Valley
To the south of the dry slot (within a plume of seasonably high precipitable water, and generally aligned with a belt of 40-70 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer), models indicate the potential for more widespread convection, organizing into clusters or lines while overspreading much of the Ohio Valley through the day. While lapse rates may not be particularly steep, given the strong flow, with at least modest CAPE and the increased potential for heavy precipitation loading and organizing convection, the environment probably will become conducive to damaging surface gusts, in addition to some risk for tornadoes.

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[tron777]

For Wed, the frontal boundary timing has slowed down a tad so that helps getting more CAPE in here with peak heating. For today...a few storms possible this morning until around the noon hour otherwise, mid 70s is the call with some sun this afternoon.

[wxpatriot]

"This is the anniversary of the 1974 Tornado Outbreak which is my number one weather event but the anniversary that is the most important is my wife and I had our first date on April 3rd 1980 and she still has not kicked me out of the house."


Tim I lurk often and read every word of your posts. I am glad your wife has not kicked you out for weather related behavior. April 3, 1974, a day I will never forget. The Saylor Park/Mack tornado was headed right towards my house and hit a hill on a street called Danville, where it destroyed all but one home. It went across South Road and clipped my school and caused significant damage and we were out of school for several weeks. As I recall, the day after the tornado (had to be a Thursday) was Reds opening day, and I just remember it was absolutely gorgeous. Deep blue sky and wall to wall sunshine. The tornado hit less than a half a mile from my home and we had no damage, just some debris in the yard.

[tron777]

For Wed, the frontal boundary timing has slowed down a tad so that helps getting more CAPE in here with peak heating. For today...a few storms possible this morning until around the noon hour otherwise, mid 70s is the call with some sun this afternoon.

Also, by looking at the SPC's threat hazards, the better tornado and hail risks are north of us with the higher wind damage threat over us. This tells me that storms will be supercells north of us then congeal into more of a squall line for us. One of those line kind of deals that may contain 60-70 mph wind gusts and brief EF0 spin up's that only last for like 30-45 seconds. That is kind of how I envision the event as long as we can get enough CAPE. Having junk convection or no junk convection tomorrow morning should help provide us clues as to how this may go down.

[winterstormjoe]

"This is the anniversary of the 1974 Tornado Outbreak which is my number one weather event but the anniversary that is the most important is my wife and I had our first date on April 3rd 1980 and she still has not kicked me out of the house."


Tim I lurk often and read every word of your posts. I am glad your wife has not kicked you out for weather related behavior. April 3, 1974, a day I will never forget. The Saylor Park/Mack tornado was headed right towards my house and hit a hill on a street called Danville, where it destroyed all but one home. It went across South Road and clipped my school and caused significant damage and we were out of school for several weeks. As I recall, the day after the tornado (had to be a Thursday) was Reds opening day, and I just remember it was absolutely gorgeous. Deep blue sky and wall to wall sunshine. The tornado hit less than a half a mile from my home and we had no damage, just some debris in the yard.

I remember when living in Cheviot watching the Saylor park/Mack tornado with my Dad on the front porch moving north about two miles from our house and then seeing it turn in to a what looked like a long rope in the NW sky thinking WOW, so that was a tornado. Such an eerie day to begin with storms that morning and then clearing in the early afternoon with cumulous clouds developing screaming across the sky moving NE. By 4 pm started hearing thunder in the SW distance and then the sirens going off a half hour later. Never seen hail that large before (golf ball). The cold front came through around 2 am on the 4th with strong storms. Will never forget that outbreak!

[tpweather]

Ron and Joe thanks for the posts on my number 1 weather event. Sorry I have probably posted so much on this but one of those days in life that sticks with you. The first thing remember is how hot it was or at least seem hot. One reason coming out of winter and the body has not adjusted but I can remember sweat pouring off me all day. Early to mid-afternoon I could see many funnel clouds in the sky and doing a 360 turn in every direction they were visible. Of course I was living in Taylor Mill at the time and with the hills its sometimes hard to get a grasp if they every touched done and may guess not there but was just a wild event Mother Nature had up here sleeve. I was 12 going on 13 and of course being outside all day was exactly what you would expect. No A/C of course and never thought to take pictures. I know when the event was in full force I was the only person outside and I just was amazed by weather so where else would I be.

[Bgoney]

For Wed, the frontal boundary timing has slowed down a tad so that helps getting more CAPE in here with peak heating. For today...a few storms possible this morning until around the noon hour otherwise, mid 70s is the call with some sun this afternoon.

Also, by looking at the SPC's threat hazards, the better tornado and hail risks are north of us with the higher wind damage threat over us. This tells me that storms will be supercells north of us then congeal into more of a squall line for us. One of those line kind of deals that may contain 60-70 mph wind gusts and brief EF0 spin up's that only last for like 30-45 seconds. That is kind of how I envision the event as long as we can get enough CAPE. Having junk convection or no junk convection tomorrow morning should help provide us clues as to how this may go down.

An interesting day no doubt. How widespread in the late morning and early afternoon will those junk showers be? If they’re just isolated pop ups here and there it’s game on late day. If they’re widespread larger clusters they might lessen the extent of severe locally for late day activity

[tron777]

[winterstormjoe]

Ron and Joe thanks for the posts on my number 1 weather event. Sorry I have probably posted so much on this but one of those days in life that sticks with you. The first thing remember is how hot it was or at least seem hot. One reason coming out of winter and the body has not adjusted but I can remember sweat pouring off me all day. Early to mid-afternoon I could see many funnel clouds in the sky and doing a 360 turn in every direction they were visible. Of course I was living in Taylor Mill at the time and with the hills its sometimes hard to get a grasp if they every touched done and may guess not there but was just a wild event Mother Nature had up here sleeve. I was 12 going on 13 and of course being outside all day was exactly what you would expect. No A/C of course and never thought to take pictures. I know when the event was in full force I was the only person outside and I just was amazed by weather so where else would I be.

Hey Tim, that was me too being outside the whole time as my neighborhood friends were all in their basements. Also, I was trying to grab those golf balls with soars on my head the next day! Lol I sat on the front porch all evening long waiting for that line of storms with the cold front to come later as Tony Sands was on top of it all, Our electric went out around 5 pm but was restored in time for the 11 pm news. I was 12 years old too!

Edit: A nice thunder shower moving through here in Fairfield!

[tpweather]

Hey Joe sounds like very similar childhoods. I had two so called hero's growing up and one was Tony Sands who at the time was considered one of the best met's in the country. My second was of course Pete Rose and how he played the game of baseball.

[winterstormjoe]

Hey Joe sounds like very similar childhoods. I had two so called hero's growing up and one was Tony Sands who at the time was considered one of the best met's in the country. My second was of course Pete Rose and how he played the game of baseball.

Yep, the golden good ole days!

I just posted (above) that we're getting hit right now with an good old fashion thundershower here in Fairfield,

[tron777]

Looks like My Dome is back! A T-shower to my north and south. I have no issues with it this time of year but come summer, it'll be a whole different ball game.

[snowlover]

Torrential rain & small hail just moved through Maineville. Wasn't expecting that today.....Glad I mowed yesterday!

[winterstormjoe]

Looks like My Dome is back! A T-shower to my north and south. I have no issues with it this time of year but come summer, it'll be a whole different ball game.

Hey Les, do you think there'll be more action developing this afternoon. I know Brian mentioned the cap yesterday? I have a roofer coming over eventually for an estimate on a sheet of shingles that blew off Saturday and hoping that I can get him in soon as I'm afraid of leaks developing! Ugh

[tron777]

Looks like My Dome is back! A T-shower to my north and south. I have no issues with it this time of year but come summer, it'll be a whole different ball game.

Hey Les, do you think there'll be more action developing this afternoon. I know Brian mentioned the cap yesterday? I have a roofer coming over eventually for an estimate on a sheet of shingles that blew off Saturday and hoping that I can get him in soon as I'm afraid of leaks developing! Ugh

Hey Joe! Just checked the HRRR and NAM and both keep us dry this afternoon once this short wave moves thru. We should even break out into some sunshine once we are warm sectored . Although right now, the visible satellite looks awfully messy. Coverage is supposed to start lessening in a few more hours. The mid levels are forecast to warm and that should aide in the development of the cap expected for later today.

[tron777]

Some clearing noted over SW IN now. CAPE and juicier dews also lurking S of the river this afternoon. Other then a cluster of storms in the East / SE zones, the rest of the area has clamed down significantly. Nothing here today which is fine. Debating whether to mow after work or wait until it dries up some again after the storm action tomorrow? It's getting long.

[tron777]

Next week thus far, is looking like a warmer week and a quieter one as well with the stormy pattern returning when I'm on vacation, wouldn't ya know it?

Until we get there, we have tomorrow to get through and the SPC has updated their Outlook for tomorrow and I see no changes. Still an enhanced risk for everyone. 30% wind, 5% TOR and 15% hail. Better TOR and Hail risks north and best straight line wind risks for our hoods. As we've previously discussed, watch visible sat and radar until about lunchtime tomorrow and we should have a good handle on how much CAPE and warmth we will see. Dews / Moisture return won't be an issue at all. The front is slow moving so plenty of time to destabilize as long as some clearing materializes.

[tron777]

Finally seeing a little sunshine now. Temps have responded. 72 now at CVG.

[winterstormjoe]

Just looked at the GFS OP 12z run and is that a tropical system the model is trying to cook up for early next week off the SE coast? Lol

[tron777]

Just looked at the GFS OP 12z run and is that a tropical system the model is trying to cook up for early next week off the SE coast? Lol

It looks like it's a low that forms along the frontal boundary that remains stuck over the Gulf Stream or just near the coast. I'd have to say it's a cold core system at this time. It is not unheard of, but it's a little early for tropical or subtropical development.

[dce]

80 degrees in Indianapolis. 85 degree readings off to the southwest in western Kentucky. 86 degrees in Paducah with a dewpoint of 66. That's pretty amazing for April 4th!

[tron777]

If we can see some of that warmth tomorrow then watch out!

[Bgoney]

NAM is not impressed with tomorrow locally

[MVWxObserver]

For Wed, the frontal boundary timing has slowed down a tad so that helps getting more CAPE in here with peak heating. For today...a few storms possible this morning until around the noon hour otherwise, mid 70s is the call with some sun this afternoon.

Also, by looking at the SPC's threat hazards, the better tornado and hail risks are north of us with the higher wind damage threat over us. This tells me that storms will be supercells north of us then congeal into more of a squall line for us. One of those line kind of deals that may contain 60-70 mph wind gusts and brief EF0 spin up's that only last for like 30-45 seconds. That is kind of how I envision the event as long as we can get enough CAPE. Having junk convection or no junk convection tomorrow morning should help provide us clues as to how this may go down.

Greenville e.g. is too close for comfort to that hatched tornado zone for Wed.

I have an aunt and some cousins in MI as that state looks to be in the hatched tornado zone!

[MVWxObserver]

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