March 2021 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

The tornado outbreak is really hard for one of my wife's co-worker and friend of ours over 40 years. She was at work that afternoon talking to her husband while he was driving a truck in Grant County. He was telling her about the horrible looking clouds and strong winds when all of a sudden nobody on the other end. The tornado pick up his truck and he died within minutes. Hard to believe its been 9 years. RIP

[tron777]

12Z GFS still keeping us dry until the 10th. Looks like a decent looking cold front for t-storms should the current look hold.

[House of Cards]

Les, you're already up to Heavy Rain. I'm just trying to get to a decent stream, gotta post a bunch more I guess. :grin:

[tron777]

Les, you're already up to Heavy Rain. I'm just trying to get to a decent stream, gotta post a bunch more I guess. :grin:

I jumped out to an early lead mainly because I created a lot of Topics to help stimulate posting once people came back and found us. :grin:

[House of Cards]

Les, you're already up to Heavy Rain. I'm just trying to get to a decent stream, gotta post a bunch more I guess. :grin:

I jumped out to an early lead mainly because I created a lot of Topics to help stimulate posting once people came back and found us. :grin:

We should take a poll on what date Les breaks the 1,000 post mark. I go next Wednesday at 10:13am.

[House of Cards]

The tornado outbreak is really hard for one of my wife's co-worker and friend of ours over 40 years. She was at work that afternoon talking to her husband while he was driving a truck in Grant County. He was telling her about the horrible looking clouds and strong winds when all of a sudden nobody on the other end. The tornado pick up his truck and he died within minutes. Hard to believe its been 9 years. RIP

Wow, that's awful! Prayers for her and her family.

[House of Cards]

It is hard to believe that this is already the ninth anniversary of the March 2, 2012 tornado outbreak. I remember sitting in my office watching the storms coming across Indiana on radar, reading the damage reports coming in, and knowing someone in the tri-state was going to get nailed. The small town I grew up in, Moscow, was one of the places that was destroyed that day.moscow-kiln-srm.png

I remember that well; I thought my boss was going to fire me, I kept refreshing the forum, the SPC Meso Pages, Radar pages, all of it and every refresh, i think I kept saying over and over things like "Oh My God!" or "Holy Smokes!!" or the like. I didn't get a single work thing done the day before or the day of as we watched that all build and unfold. Then I remember my company letting people leave early but by the time they pulled the trigger, they were sending the KY employees right into the path of it.

[tron777]

Les, you're already up to Heavy Rain. I'm just trying to get to a decent stream, gotta post a bunch more I guess. :grin:

I jumped out to an early lead mainly because I created a lot of Topics to help stimulate posting once people came back and found us. :grin:

We should take a poll on what date Les breaks the 1,000 post mark. I go next Wednesday at 10:13am.

You know me too well after all these years, Dave!

[tron777]

12Z Euro keeping us dry until the 3/10-11 time period.

[tpweather]

If the old saying come in like a lamb and go out light a lion is true then we are going to get hit with some wicked weather at the end of the month. This is such a quiet period and especially for early March and such a long period.

[tron777]

It looks like we warm up next week but also turn wet. A stronger front comes mid month and signs are that we get one more colder period. I've hinted at this possibility for a while now. Note... This does not mean snow. Possible, yes, but this is not a favorable pattern we saw a few weeks ago. It's a period of cooler weather and if timed with moisture at night, it could snow. 40s are just about below avg now for highs.

MJO is still expected to go into 8 then 1 so that should lead to a brief dip in the AO and NAO which models are showing. I think it'll be our last shot at snow. 3 of the 12Z GEFS showed accumulating snow in the longer term out of 24. It is a start.

[tron777]

On the old forum, I brought up 2010-2011 for a winter analog for this past winter. This December was not cold and snowy like that season but the come back in the 2nd half was good in that winter too. For March of 2011, we had mild and wet conditions until March 2oth. Highs 40 to 45 and lows in the 20s occurred with 2"+ of light snow as well. Prior to that cold front, 3 days in the mid to upper 70s lol We'll see what this March has in store. So far quiet week 1 and seasonal, then warmer and wetter week 2. Cold week 3?

[MJSun]

MJSun,

As promised my first post ever since I began following the forum after being with Rich A. since running into him at the dentist many years ago. I owe you for directing me here in 2011.

Great whitewater canoeing weather!! Needs those rains and snow melt to keep White Oak creek running to those Class III levels. Thanks to everyone that makes this work!!

Yay Ron! Welcome! Ron and I work together and have had many conversations about Skyeye and AbVo.

[MJSun]

The tornado outbreak is really hard for one of my wife's co-worker and friend of ours over 40 years. She was at work that afternoon talking to her husband while he was driving a truck in Grant County. He was telling her about the horrible looking clouds and strong winds when all of a sudden nobody on the other end. The tornado pick up his truck and he died within minutes. Hard to believe its been 9 years. RIP

That is so sad. RIP and thoughts to their family.

[Bgoney]

Wow ," who let the lambs out? Who, who who..". what a beautiful stretch of late winter weather. Gradual warm up after this weekend and Still like around the 12th-14th to see a chance at 70s. Not sure how long that warm spell lasts as the cold near the northern border looms and possible low pressure cutting through the midwest.

[tron777]

I am still standing by my thoughts of quiet until the 10th. Then we get more active. Agree with Bgoney that some 60s are possible. Certainly cannot rule out 70s in March if you get a Western Lakes Cutter especially. It is after mid month that I am going with a cool spell again. No idea if it's a cold rain and snow to the north of us or if we have a shot at some snow. Pattern looks more active either way.

[tron777]

I'm going with my reasoning of the MJO getting into 8 then 1 as well as a brief dip in the AO and NAO into negative territory. I don't think the cold period will last long. I think it will be brief. But it's one last chance before spring officially takes over and severe wx takes over our focus instead of snow.

[Sawdoggie]

The Ohio River is now expected to reach 56' sometime tonight... https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrogr ... gage=ccno1

[tron777]

The Ohio River is now expected to reach 56' sometime tonight... https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrogr ... gage=ccno1

Now we're getting to the stage where impacts are felt in Aurora / Rising Sun, IN and the East Side too. I assume the East End, Kellogg, etc are having the usual high water issues right now.

[tron777]

BG's Blog Update: https://www.wave3.com/2021/03/03/goode- ... ther-blog/

[cloudy72]

I am still standing by my thoughts of quiet until the 10th. Then we get more active. Agree with Bgoney that some 60s are possible. Certainly cannot rule out 70s in March if you get a Western Lakes Cutter especially. It is after mid month that I am going with a cool spell again. No idea if it's a cold rain and snow to the north of us or if we have a shot at some snow. Pattern looks more active either way.

Hey Les - I am in agreement on your 10th timeframe for the quiet weather. For those experiencing flooding issues now, we will need this next week to dry out and get the water levels back down before mother nature turns the faucets on again. SPC also in agreement saying some severe weather possible out in the southern Plains and Miss Valley in that TUES-WED period.

[tron777]

I am still standing by my thoughts of quiet until the 10th. Then we get more active. Agree with Bgoney that some 60s are possible. Certainly cannot rule out 70s in March if you get a Western Lakes Cutter especially. It is after mid month that I am going with a cool spell again. No idea if it's a cold rain and snow to the north of us or if we have a shot at some snow. Pattern looks more active either way.

Hey Les - I am in agreement on your 10th timeframe for the quiet weather. For those experiencing flooding issues now, we will need this next week to dry out and get the water levels back down before mother nature turns the faucets on again. SPC also in agreement saying some severe weather possible out in the southern Plains and Miss Valley in that TUES-WED period.

Severe wx for us maybe a possibility with the system coming up after that one before we turn cooler again if my long range thoughts are right. I think a spike into the 60s / 70s is possible as Bgoney mentioned. If we can get some better dews in here, then we'll have a shot. The deeper moisture for the first system next week looks to stay to our West and SW at this time.

[MVWxObserver]

Given the climo on average for the 2nd half of March and the sun angle, maybe we can put the snowblowers and snow shovels back in storage until late next fall / winter?

Currently 41 here and progged to top out around 54. :grin:

[tron777]

Given the climo on average for the 2nd half of March and the sun angle, maybe we can put the snowblowers and snow shovels back in storage until late next fall / winter?

Currently 41 here and progged to top out around 54. :grin:

I would do it anyway just to help our chances at a fluke system.

[dce]

Given the climo on average for the 2nd half of March and the sun angle, maybe we can put the snowblowers and snow shovels back in storage until late next fall / winter?

Currently 41 here and progged to top out around 54. :grin:

Hey now! That's not how we roll here on AV. It's all snow all the time!