Agreed. Best chance western counties. Still think there will be a couple thunderstorm warnings in the local area, though. Shear is very high and 850mb winds are going to be strong so it won’t take too much to get some severe gusts to the surface in any stronger cells.
Agreed... western counties could see a warning or two. No doubt. Storms should begin to weaken once they cross I-65.Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Mar 30, 2023 9:59 amAgreed. Best chance western counties. Still think there will be a couple thunderstorm warnings in the local area, though. Shear is very high and 850mb winds are going to be strong so it won’t take too much to get some severe gusts to the surface in any stronger cells.
Timing and little CAPE will keep things in the isolated to scattered severe category here versus a much more serious event if those two things were not the case.
Look for a High Wind Warning on Sat!Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Mar 30, 2023 5:45 am Overnight models continue to sing the same tune re: severe threat here for Friday night. NAM brings in the line around 2am so obviously bad timing there. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple thunderstorm warnings in the local area but that should be about it. Then high winds kick in Saturday morning into the afternoon with 40-50+ gusts expected.
I agree. That should be the location of the triple point. Should be a good area for spinners.
Wow! I was not expecting that! Wind damage is their primary concern East of I-65. I think the best tornado threat remains West of I-65.
Perfect post and I agree as the timing has sped up somewhat. This time of year these lines once they form can last later into the evening and early overnight so I agree with this post and the updated outlook.Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 9:21 am I agree with the new outlook. The timing is speeding up and a little more CAPE looks to get involved. Still low amounts but it doesn’t take a lot to maintain a strong line once it gets going. Our threat is definitely increasing. Damaging winds the main threat, secondary threat being isolated weak spinners with any kinks in the line. Best chance west but all stand at least a chance.
Hey Tim, I just had a thunder shower, that thunder was loud. Now it's pouring again!tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 10:22 am One thing I mentioned yesterday was we could get some clearing later this afternoon. There is some clearing over southern Illinois this morning. We have another round of showers to move through here over the next 2-3 hours but can we get into that clearing which will no doubt enhance showers and thundershowers. The sun is getting stronger each day and this time of year it can bully itself rather easy. Watch between say 3-5 pm and if we get that hour or two of sun this can only add fire to the fuel.
Hey Joe,hope all is going well my friend. I got a heavy shower but no thunder. Just looking to the sky later this afternoon to see if that clearing is able to make it here.winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 11:20 amHey Tim, I just had a thunder shower, that thunder was loud. Now it's pouring again!tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 10:22 am One thing I mentioned yesterday was we could get some clearing later this afternoon. There is some clearing over southern Illinois this morning. We have another round of showers to move through here over the next 2-3 hours but can we get into that clearing which will no doubt enhance showers and thundershowers. The sun is getting stronger each day and this time of year it can bully itself rather easy. Watch between say 3-5 pm and if we get that hour or two of sun this can only add fire to the fuel.
