March 2023 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Watching for flooding in the northern plains and upper mid-west over the next several weeks. Above average snowfall in many areas and including southern Canada should no doubt cause flooding issues especially if we have a quick warm up in April. Of course these waters will flow into the Mississippi River which will cause flooding along that river as well. What could cause more problems is if the next 2-4 weeks has above normal rainfall not only in those areas but east in the Ohio Valley. Though we don't have concerns for snow melt heavy rains will raise the Ohio River which could cause more water heading into the Mississippi River.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Quiet weather until mid to late next week. Several rain chances to deal with as well as mild temps. Not sure on severe wx at this point but once those 70s get in here for Thurs, the threat could be on the table if we haver good timing and some heating.

Good Morning Les and no doubt a nice warming trend this week. My first thought was next weekend we would cool down but it looks like another cold front will need to get in here late next weekend or early the following week for another below normal set up. How much rain is interesting and somebody in the Ohio Valley will get hit rather hard with some heavy rain. Still early in the process but most folks should get at least 1 inch of rainfall but depending on how everything sets up chances for somebody to get over 3 inches is possible. Spring and we have these kind of systems so nothing unusual in that sense. Flooding and again with no snow melt involved we get the normal kind of flooding you expect with these systems early in the spring and folks who live near a river or stream no this is part of living close to a body of water.

Making a quick trip to SC leaving Wednesday morning and getting home late Friday.

Safe travels Tim! I agree with the totals you have listed. Most models are in that 1-3" range for this upcoming week. We'll have to wait and see how long it takes these frontal systems to move thru, or if they stall, then the heavier amounts can be realized.

[tron777]

19 this morning at CVG. This makes our third morning in a row in the teens! Doubtful that we've done that since the Christmas cold snap back in December.

[tron777]

[MVWxObserver]

Good morning all! Quiet weather until mid to late next week. Several rain chances to deal with as well as mild temps. Not sure on severe wx at this point but once those 70s get in here for Thurs, the threat could be on the table if we haver good timing and some heating.

Good Morning Les and no doubt a nice warming trend this week. My first thought was next weekend we would cool down but it looks like another cold front will need to get in here late next weekend or early the following week for another below normal set up. How much rain is interesting and somebody in the Ohio Valley will get hit rather hard with some heavy rain. Still early in the process but most folks should get at least 1 inch of rainfall but depending on how everything sets up chances for somebody to get over 3 inches is possible. Spring and we have these kind of systems so nothing unusual in that sense. Flooding and again with no snow melt involved we get the normal kind of flooding you expect with these systems early in the spring and folks who live near a river or stream no this is part of living close to a body of water.

Making a quick trip to SC leaving Wednesday morning and getting home late Friday.

Safe travels Tim! I agree with the totals you have listed. Most models are in that 1-3" range for this upcoming week. We'll have to wait and see how long it takes these frontal systems to move thru, or if they stall, then the heavier amounts can be realized.

I saw this morning on the AccuWeather channel a map outlining that from St Louis to Indy could be in a range of possibly 4-8"!

[MVWxObserver]

HAPPY SPRING EQUINOX EVERYWXONE!! Soooo ready for it and baseball and t-storms!

Currently 41 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 47.

[tron777]

Not too bad out there this afternoon. Took a half day today. At the Dr office getting my peepers checked.

[tron777]

Got a good report! See you next year. Now to give it a few hours for the dilation to wear off so I can see a computer model again.

[tron777]

Happy Spring / Vernal Equinox everybody that is just about here in the next 30-45 mins as of this post.

I topped out at 49 today. One last chilly night in the 20s then we start to slowly bring the rain chances in. Highest chances continue to be late Thurs thru Fri night. 50 / 50 chance tomorrow and Wed with a weak system sliding thru before the main piece. It will ends early Saturday. If this timing works out, then we should squeak in a dry Sunday. Rain chances quickly pick back up next week. Mild overall after tonight. We peak in the 70+ range on Thursday right before the main system works into the area.

In the long term, I still see more active weather and one more cold plunge to end March. Snow to end March or begin April? Low chance, but no big signals are showing up. Either way, we trend warmer thereafter as spring begins to kick in more. Frosts / Freezes still possible obviously at anytime in April but they should become less frequent climo speaking. This is kind of how I see things progressing over the next 2 weeks.

MJO has begun its dive thru from Phase 8 into Phase 1. Looks like we get into Phase 2 within the next week before going into the circle. These are colder phases so thus, that last cold attack I spoke of is likely while we still have some blocking in place.

[MVWxObserver]

Happy Spring / Vernal Equinox everybody that is just about here in the next 30-45 mins as of this post.

I topped out at 49 today. One last chilly night in the 20s then we start to slowly bring the rain chances in. Highest chances continue to be late Thurs thru Fri night. 50 / 50 chance tomorrow and Wed with a weak system sliding thru before the main piece. It will ends early Saturday. If this timing works out, then we should squeak in a dry Sunday. Rain chances quickly pick back up next week. Mild overall after tonight. We peak in the 70+ range on Thursday right before the main system works into the area.

In the long term, I still see more active weather and one more cold plunge to end March. Snow to end March or begin April? Low chance, but no big signals are showing up. Either way, we trend warmer thereafter as spring begins to kick in more. Frosts / Freezes still possible obviously at anytime in April but they should become less frequent climo speaking. This is kind of how I see things progressing over the next 2 weeks.

MJO has begun its dive thru from Phase 8 into Phase 1. Looks like we get into Phase 2 within the next week before going into the circle. These are colder phases so thus, that last cold attack I spoke of is likely while we still have some blocking in place.

In the long range what is Easter 4/7-4/9 weekend looking like, Bro?

[Bgoney]

WPC making note of an axis of possible flooding rains somewhere in the vicinity of CVGland for Thursday/Friday


The hazardous weather focus for the medium-range forecast period (Thursday, March 23rd - Monday,
March 27th) will be on the threat for potentially significant heavy rain and severe weather over
portions of the central/eastern CONUS Thursday (March 23rd) and Friday (March 24th). A slow moving
cold front stretching from the Great Lakes to the Plains will be pushing southward relatively
slowly over portions of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys Thursday-Friday. A second frontal system
will cross the southern tier of the West and enter the Southern Plains during the same time frame.
An upper-level ridge building over the southeastern CONUS as an upper-level trough approaches from
the west will help to funnel anomalously high Gulf moisture north and eastward along and ahead of
these boundaries, increasing instability and fueling widespread showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rain/high rain rates. For days, the deterministic model guidance has been consistent in
suggesting the possibility for potentially widespread significant heavy rainfall totals, upwards of
4-5+ inches, particularly from late afternoon Thursday into early Friday morning. However, another
unfortunate consistent pattern in the guidance is for a narrow axis of heavy rainfall with
differences amongst individual models. Due to the narrow axis of heaviest rainfall, even relatively
small adjustments in placement could impact what locations see a significant amount of rainfall or
only light to moderate amounts. Regardless, the threat has remained notable and could lead to flash
flooding concerns. Another round of storms is expected to develop Friday along and ahead of the
cold front pushing across the Ohio Valley/Southeast. Additional heavy rainfall is likely with these
storms, although totals look to be less significant overall compared to Thursday given the more
progressive nature of the front

[MVWxObserver]

WPC making note of an axis of possible flooding rains somewhere in the vicinity of CVGland for Thursday/Friday


The hazardous weather focus for the medium-range forecast period (Thursday, March 23rd - Monday,
March 27th) will be on the threat for potentially significant heavy rain and severe weather over
portions of the central/eastern CONUS Thursday (March 23rd) and Friday (March 24th). A slow moving
cold front stretching from the Great Lakes to the Plains will be pushing southward relatively
slowly over portions of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys Thursday-Friday. A second frontal system
will cross the southern tier of the West and enter the Southern Plains during the same time frame.
An upper-level ridge building over the southeastern CONUS as an upper-level trough approaches from
the west will help to funnel anomalously high Gulf moisture north and eastward along and ahead of
these boundaries, increasing instability and fueling widespread showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rain/high rain rates. For days, the deterministic model guidance has been consistent in
suggesting the possibility for potentially widespread significant heavy rainfall totals, upwards of
4-5+ inches, particularly from late afternoon Thursday into early Friday morning. However, another
unfortunate consistent pattern in the guidance is for a narrow axis of heavy rainfall with
differences amongst individual models. Due to the narrow axis of heaviest rainfall, even relatively
small adjustments in placement could impact what locations see a significant amount of rainfall or
only light to moderate amounts. Regardless, the threat has remained notable and could lead to flash
flooding concerns. Another round of storms is expected to develop Friday along and ahead of the
cold front pushing across the Ohio Valley/Southeast. Additional heavy rainfall is likely with these
storms, although totals look to be less significant overall compared to Thursday given the more
progressive nature of the front

Miami Valley region, too, I reckon. My folks will be in Lima for Mom a med appt on Thurs morning. Crap!

[tron777]

Happy Spring / Vernal Equinox everybody that is just about here in the next 30-45 mins as of this post.

I topped out at 49 today. One last chilly night in the 20s then we start to slowly bring the rain chances in. Highest chances continue to be late Thurs thru Fri night. 50 / 50 chance tomorrow and Wed with a weak system sliding thru before the main piece. It will ends early Saturday. If this timing works out, then we should squeak in a dry Sunday. Rain chances quickly pick back up next week. Mild overall after tonight. We peak in the 70+ range on Thursday right before the main system works into the area.

In the long term, I still see more active weather and one more cold plunge to end March. Snow to end March or begin April? Low chance, but no big signals are showing up. Either way, we trend warmer thereafter as spring begins to kick in more. Frosts / Freezes still possible obviously at anytime in April but they should become less frequent climo speaking. This is kind of how I see things progressing over the next 2 weeks.

MJO has begun its dive thru from Phase 8 into Phase 1. Looks like we get into Phase 2 within the next week before going into the circle. These are colder phases so thus, that last cold attack I spoke of is likely while we still have some blocking in place.

In the long range what is Easter 4/7-4/9 weekend looking like, Bro?

Still too far away to make a call Bro.

[tron777]

18Z GFS has 4" of rain at CVG! 12Z Euro had 1.8" So 2-4" is a pretty good model spread. NAM doesn't quite go out far enough yet.

[Bgoney]

WPC making note of an axis of possible flooding rains somewhere in the vicinity of CVGland for Thursday/Friday


The hazardous weather focus for the medium-range forecast period (Thursday, March 23rd - Monday,
March 27th) will be on the threat for potentially significant heavy rain and severe weather over
portions of the central/eastern CONUS Thursday (March 23rd) and Friday (March 24th). A slow moving
cold front stretching from the Great Lakes to the Plains will be pushing southward relatively
slowly over portions of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys Thursday-Friday. A second frontal system
will cross the southern tier of the West and enter the Southern Plains during the same time frame.
An upper-level ridge building over the southeastern CONUS as an upper-level trough approaches from
the west will help to funnel anomalously high Gulf moisture north and eastward along and ahead of
these boundaries, increasing instability and fueling widespread showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rain/high rain rates. For days, the deterministic model guidance has been consistent in
suggesting the possibility for potentially widespread significant heavy rainfall totals, upwards of
4-5+ inches, particularly from late afternoon Thursday into early Friday morning. However, another
unfortunate consistent pattern in the guidance is for a narrow axis of heavy rainfall with
differences amongst individual models. Due to the narrow axis of heaviest rainfall, even relatively
small adjustments in placement could impact what locations see a significant amount of rainfall or
only light to moderate amounts. Regardless, the threat has remained notable and could lead to flash
flooding concerns. Another round of storms is expected to develop Friday along and ahead of the
cold front pushing across the Ohio Valley/Southeast. Additional heavy rainfall is likely with these
storms, although totals look to be less significant overall compared to Thursday given the more
progressive nature of the front

Miami Valley region, too, I reckon. My folks will be in Lima for Mom a med appt on Thurs morning. Crap!

Yep, a bit early to know where that 4-5”axis will set up. Anywhere north of Lexington to north of Dayton is fair game, and as Les mentioned ,even outside of this heavier axis, there will be 1-3 amounts, at least that’s what models ar showing atm.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and of course we don't want heavy rains but a nice 1-2 inches always nice this time of year. Once you start getting totals over 3 or 4 inches then flooding is more of a concern. Just need to see how things play out. Still very concerned about the northern plains and upper mid-west as they have had a wonderful year in terms of snowfall though that can be bad news once the spring melt begins. Those areas have not been really too much below normal in temps this winter but some areas have seen twice the normal in terms of snowfall and many areas still have over 2 feet on the ground. If the winter thaw comes with heavy rain anywhere in the Mississippi River area we are talking about big time flooding. My guess the one good thing is the ice that sometimes melts up there on bigger streams and rivers has not been as thick so the ice jams may not be the normal problem they see. Locally unless we get several weeks of big time rainfall we will just end up with the normal spring rises in rivers and streams.

[Trevor]

Latest forecast from the WPC highlighting the flooding threat across the region.

[Bgoney]

Latest wording from WPC



Expect heavy rainfall over portions of the east-central U.S. late
this week as guidance continues to suggest that developing low
pressure emerging from the Plains will focus abundant moisture
along its trailing cold front and a leading wavy front. The new
day 4 (12Z Friday-12Z Saturday) Excessive Rainfall Outlook will be
quite similar to the previous day 5 issuance, reflecting only
minor adjustments for latest guidance with respect to a Slight
Risk area from parts of Arkansas/northern Louisiana northeastward
into southern Ohio and parts of West Virginia. Within this area,
guidance is starting to cluster toward heaviest rain totals being
along an axis from northeastern Arkansas into Kentucky or the Ohio
River.

[tron777]

Good morning folks!

The overnight GFS continues to paint 4-5" for a lot of folks. 2-3" from the Canadian and Euro. So it is safe to say that most folks bare min. should see a solid 2" out of the deal. The chance is there for a 5" amount as well should things come together just right and you get the front to stall out in the correct spot for a longer period of time. Definitely thinking flood watches will be issued probably on Wednesday once we see more data with regards to where the heaviest rainfall occurs.

[tron777]

[tpweather]

Good Morning and how much rain will we get and is flooding going to be an issue are the main questions for later this week. No doubt somebody in the Ohio Valley will get into some heavier rain later Thursday and Friday. Still early to pinpoint exactly where that will occur. Even if we get into a forecast of 3-5 inches in a certain area that does not always mean you will fall in that range. Somebody may get 2 inches and another area 6 inches. That is what happens in this situation and nothing new with this setup.

Spring time flooding and happens to a certain extent every spring but to what extent is always the question. Things in our favor this season is we will not have a frozen ground even though its been cold that past several days plus we have more vegetation that is already taking in some water which is earlier than normal. Saying that if you get an 2-3 inch rainfall in say 6 hours there will be some flooding in the smaller streams. Concerning the Ohio River and yes it will rise but how much rainfall upstream is going to fall and again not much in the way of snow melt helps in keeping the river from getting out of hand. Will it hit flood stage and probably sometime next week as another system is also expected to head this way but at this moment not a major flooding event imo.

Downstream rains can also determine flooding as well because they deal with the damns and how much water is flowing and say Louisville as an example gets 6 inches of rainfall my guess trying to keep in water further north from entering at a fast rate they will need to mess with the damns. Not sure how this is determined but sure somebody on here has a much better educated guess on how that works.

[tron777]

12Z NAM only has about an inch and a half for CVG with this event.

[tpweather]

12Z NAM only has about an inch and a half for CVG with this event.

Hey Les and going to see different amounts with each model for several more runs as they try and figure where the front stalls. At this point a good 1-3 inch forecast seems fine until we can figure out exactly where the heaviest rains falls.The only trend and its minor is for the heaviest rain a little further south on most runs. Lets see if that trend continues. I would love to see between 1-2 inches for the entire week which is always a nice amount to have in later March.

[tron777]

12Z NAM only has about an inch and a half for CVG with this event.

Hey Les and going to see different amounts with each model for several more runs as they try and figure where the front stalls. At this point a good 1-3 inch forecast seems fine until we can figure out exactly where the heaviest rains falls.The only trend and its minor is for the heaviest rain a little further south on most runs. Lets see if that trend continues. I would love to see between 1-2 inches for the entire week which is always a nice amount to have in later March.

Tim, I'm curious to see if the GFS drops south or continues to drill us with the best rains.

[tron777]

12Z GFS still going with almost 4" of rain at CVG.