March 2023 Weather Discussion

[young pup]

Per the NWS on Facebook: 12:36 PM] We have seen some sources indicating a tornado warning was issued for Bracken/Mason/Lewis counties in Kentucky. We do not currently have a tornado warning out for these locations.
Please stay weather aware as watches/warnings may be needed later today.

[tpweather]

Strange thing today and maybe other folks can report if they are seeing any strong winds but I have been almost calm all morning long. I see reports from the airport of winds near 20 but I may see winds of 2-4 mph and no gusts so far.

[tpweather]

Strong line of storms just moved through the Nashville area and heading for south central and southeast Ky where temps are near 70 in many spots. No doubt the stronger storms are in the much warmer air and with more rain moving into our area I wonder how much damper that will put on any storms. The ones that form tornado's over western Ky seem to all of a sudden produce a tornado but then it weakens quickly. Trev mentioned this morning the amount of time for a warning is short and those seem to be what we are seeing in western Ky.

[tron777]

1.6" IMBY for rainfall. Temp up to 45 degrees with a dew of 43.

[tron777]

978 MB Low now at the tip of SW IN. Wow! This is why I am concerned. The triple point is going to be very close to us in CVG Land. CAPE or no CAPE I don't think it'll matter much with a low this strong. Helicity rates are now in the 800-900 range over NKY and the Tri-state area. Just need the warm front to get the winds backing to the SE and bingo!

[tron777]

Visible satellite shows the brief dry slot now forming in SW KY right ahead of the low / cold front.

1kmv.gif

[tpweather]

978 MB Low now at the tip of SW IN. Wow! This is why I am concerned. The triple point is going to be very close to us in CVG Land. CAPE or no CAPE I don't think it'll matter much with a low this strong. Helicity rates are now in the 800-900 range over NKY and the Tri-state area. Just need the warm front to get the winds backing to the SE and bingo!

Key point to your post Les is getting the wind around to the southeast. That has happened of course south of here and we are just on the edge.

[Sawdoggie]

Mesoscale Discussion 0245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 AM CST Fri Mar 03 2023

Areas affected...western Kentucky...far southern Indiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 60...

Valid 031744Z - 031945Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 60 continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor of tornadoes and significant wind damage is
likely over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...An arcing line of storms is strengthening near a deep
surface low, with 977 mb measured at the PAH observation at 17Z.
Drying aloft is aiding clearing and surface heating now ahead of
this line, which will further increase low-level instability. Shear
profiles are extreme with 0-1 SRH over 500 m2/s2.

Both tornadoes and swaths of hurricane-force winds are expected with
this line as it rapidly moves east coincident with the low. Enhanced
lift where this line of storms intersects the warm front may be a
favored area for a strong tornado as well.

[tron777]

Not sure if we have any posters impacted by the Mill Creek in Evendale but there is a flood warning that has been issued:

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mill Creek at Evendale.

* WHEN...Until late this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 13.0 feet, Canal Road near UPS floods with high water
along Kemper and Mosteller Roads near the creek.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 12:45 PM EST Friday the stage was 11.6 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
this afternoon to a crest of 13.5 feet late this afternoon.
It will then fall below flood stage late this afternoon.
- Flood stage is 12.0 feet.

[tpweather]

Not sure if we have any posters impacted by the Mill Creek in Evendale but there is a flood warning that has been issued:

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mill Creek at Evendale.

* WHEN...Until late this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 13.0 feet, Canal Road near UPS floods with high water
along Kemper and Mosteller Roads near the creek.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 12:45 PM EST Friday the stage was 11.6 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
this afternoon to a crest of 13.5 feet late this afternoon.
It will then fall below flood stage late this afternoon.
- Flood stage is 12.0 feet.

Seems like the Mill Creek in Evendale floods every year.

[Trevor]

Visible satellite shows the brief dry slot now forming in SW KY right ahead of the low / cold front.


1kmv.gif

Back edge of the precip is near Louisville then we’ll get that break Les. It’ll be brief but should allow us to throw in some CAPE (not good). I like you remain very concerned.

[tpweather]

Mesoscale Discussion 0245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 AM CST Fri Mar 03 2023

Areas affected...western Kentucky...far southern Indiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 60...

Valid 031744Z - 031945Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 60 continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor of tornadoes and significant wind damage is
likely over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...An arcing line of storms is strengthening near a deep
surface low, with 977 mb measured at the PAH observation at 17Z.
Drying aloft is aiding clearing and surface heating now ahead of
this line, which will further increase low-level instability. Shear
profiles are extreme with 0-1 SRH over 500 m2/s2.

Both tornadoes and swaths of hurricane-force winds are expected with
this line as it rapidly moves east coincident with the low. Enhanced
lift where this line of storms intersects the warm front may be a
favored area for a strong tornado as well.Great Post and another key with the statement is drying aloft ahead of the line and we mentioned that this morning getting a quick clearing before the line comes through can shake things up in a hurry. Also something you don't see often is the mentioned of hurricane-force winds with this system

[Trevor]

I suspect we will be under a tornado watch within the next couple of hours.

[tron777]

Peak wind gusts just north of the strong surface low:

66MPH at DEC and 63MPH at SET.

Good call from the boys on issuing the high wind warning IMO. This is without storms don't forget. With storms 70-80 MPH gusts are likely as Trev mentioned earlier.

[tron777]

Visible satellite shows the brief dry slot now forming in SW KY right ahead of the low / cold front.


1kmv.gif

Back edge of the precip is near Louisville then we’ll get that break Les. It’ll be brief but should allow us to throw in some CAPE (not good). I like you remain very concerned.

That little bit of clearing we don't need or want but if we get it, it's off to the races IMO.

[tpweather]

Two lines of storms with one over central Tn and one over western Ky. They are both moving east/northeast and wonder if these two end up forming one big line in a few hours.

[tpweather]

Visible satellite shows the brief dry slot now forming in SW KY right ahead of the low / cold front.


1kmv.gif

Back edge of the precip is near Louisville then we’ll get that break Les. It’ll be brief but should allow us to throw in some CAPE (not good). I like you remain very concerned.

That little bit of clearing we don't need or want but if we get it, it's off to the races IMO.

Les its been so calm here this morning and my guess some folks will be shocked with the winds later today. The highest wind so far for me as been 4 mph. The old calm before the storm is playing out today.

[tron777]

The only line I am worried about is the one in Western KY. Like Trev said, once our current rain shuts off in a couple more hours, we'll get into that break. If we do see some sunshine it'll add fuel to the line that needs to be watched like a hawk. What I don't know is this... do we see any supercells develop ahead of the line or if it's just the line only, then it's 70-80 mph gusts with embedded spin up's. That is one of the unknowns with regards to tornado potential.

[tron777]

Visible satellite shows the brief dry slot now forming in SW KY right ahead of the low / cold front.


1kmv.gif

Back edge of the precip is near Louisville then we’ll get that break Les. It’ll be brief but should allow us to throw in some CAPE (not good). I like you remain very concerned.

That little bit of clearing we don't need or want but if we get it, it's off to the races IMO.

Les its been so calm here this morning and my guess some folks will be shocked with the winds later today. The highest wind so far for me as been 4 mph. The old calm before the storm is playing out today.

Myself and CVG has had 25 to 30 mph gusts earlier out of the East. Wind isn't bad now. It'll pick up once the rain shuts off.

[tpweather]

Les I believe both lines can merge as they head northeast. The line is western Ky is moving quicker and the one in Tn is moving slower but heading further north. Will watch over the next hour or so and see if this continues.

[tpweather]

Visible satellite shows the brief dry slot now forming in SW KY right ahead of the low / cold front.


1kmv.gif

Back edge of the precip is near Louisville then we’ll get that break Les. It’ll be brief but should allow us to throw in some CAPE (not good). I like you remain very concerned.

That little bit of clearing we don't need or want but if we get it, it's off to the races IMO.

Les its been so calm here this morning and my guess some folks will be shocked with the winds later today. The highest wind so far for me as been 4 mph. The old calm before the storm is playing out today.

Myself and CVG has had 25 to 30 mph gusts earlier out of the East. Wind isn't bad now. It'll pick up once the rain shuts off.

That is just wild and no wind to speak of all morning and I live 10 miles from you.

[tron777]

Per BG - Just to give everyone some sense of timing:

[tron777]

Les I believe both lines can merge as they head northeast. The line is western Ky is moving quicker and the one in Tn is moving slower but heading further north. Will watch over the next hour or so and see if this continues.

If that happens, that could really enhance the winds when you get merging cells. Let's hope that is NOT the case.

[Sawdoggie]

Ironically, this is the 11th anniversary of the tornado outbreak that nailed Piner and Moscow plus others. A few years ago, I started volunteering with the Red Cross and I am now the Disaster Action Team Coordinator for the Cincinnati Tri-State Chapter. We've been busy today making sure that we have folks signed up on-call and are ready to respond if it gets ugly this afternoon.

[tron777]

Ironically, this is the 11th anniversary of the tornado outbreak that nailed Piner and Moscow plus others. A few years ago, I started volunteering with the Red Cross and I am now the Disaster Action Team Coordinator for the Cincinnati Tri-State Chapter. We've been busy today making sure that we have folks signed up on-call and are ready to respond if it gets ugly this afternoon.

Then 3 days later it snowed. I remember that part fondly.