tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:56 am
12Z GFS has a 977 MB low over STL Fri morning with heavy rain in our hoods as the warm front works into the ILN CWA and lifts northward. I would already plan on another wind advisory being issued for this event. 2" of rain or more is not out of the question and the guidance hasn't changed much in recent days. I think I mentioned 1-2"+ for everyone and that's a good call this far out but may need to up the bottom part of that range in days to come provided that the strength of the low is real. Not sure how long we'll be in the warm sector. We were in it much longer then expected and got the needed CAPE thanks to the sun for yesterdays event. We'll have to see how long we get for into the warm sector for Friday. Do we see a similar dry slot for the boundary layer to mix down and get some CAPE or will it mainly be a cloudy, rainy, and windy day with little in the way of t-storms? We shall see! SPC currently targeting the TN Valley and points south on their Day 4 Outlook.
Great Post Les!!! If we stay in the rain longer Friday morning that may help in keeping severe weather down somewhat. The further southeast you live the better shot of severe weather imo. 1-2 looks like a good forecast and that could be area wide which is nice since we are heading into the rainy season. Going to put down some grass see on Wednesday so this means I will probably see 6 inches of rain to wash it away or 0 and need to get the hose out which is stored away.
I was thinking of doing the same Tim putting some seed down, but also afraid of it washing away in some spots. It usually does!
12Z CMC is a bit further SE with the low track but it still means all rain for all of us regardless. The question will be where the heaviest snow falls? As far south as Chicago to Detroit or further north over Wisc into Central / northern Lower Mich. etc.
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:49 am
Record high for tomorrow March 1st at CVG is 71 degrees set back in Tim's favorite year 1976. We should be able to beat that as long as increasing clouds don't occur too early.
66 for DAY re March 1st also from Tim's favorite year 1976. ILN has progged 70 for the Gem City tomorrow and so like you said, bro, will depend on the timetable of increasing clouds.
Looks like much of Alaska is getting some decent winter weather this week. Anchorage has done very well in terms of snow this season but many areas are below average. Temps have been cold but nothing to write home about. Sometimes these very stormy patterns is the change of a pattern as next week ridging really looks to build northward towards the pole. Hopefully this will then send us into a much colder pattern later next week. Still plenty of snow cover in much of Canada and the northern 1/4 of the USA. So even though we are getting into the time of year where the sun is out nearing the 12 hours in late March the cold and snow up north should still be able to transport the cold into the USA. How cold and exactly where the coldest of air is heading is still up in the air but hopefully by later this week the models are tuning in on that forecast. Of course we have the storminess down here late in the week as well so hopefully that will also help change the pattern later next week
Totals from most 12z models are for a tenth of an inch or less for late tomorrow / tomorrow night's first weak system that passes on by. The meat and potatoes of it will be Thurs night and Friday. 12Z Euro coming in now giving CVG 1.22" of rain. 1-2" still looking like a good call to take the higher models into account like the GFS.
Nice cold shot in the fantasy range on the OP GFS today. Would be nice if it occurs and second if we can do anything with it. It would fit the MJO Phase 8, -WPO / -EPO pattern nicely. I don't think the -PNA truly goes away but I do think it can displace the Aleutian Ridge which is pretty much what happens on this run. Low confidence this far away but that is the effects that we are looking for.
GEFS / GEPS both have the Aleutian Ridge getting displaced NE with a full latitude trough undercutting the blocking over the top after 3/10. An interesting pattern should the baroclinic zone get displaced more to the south, You would think it should with the flow being more west to east. No weakness for the low to cut if this is correct. EPS has been showing it. 12z run later one would think should hold.
Nice to see that pattern and lets hope it shapes up like that Les. The latest Nam is even showing snow showers later Friday as the low sort of stops heading northeast and moves north. This could be the start of more blocking that we hope to see in the next 31 days or so.
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 4:23 pm
Nice to see that pattern and lets hope it shapes up like that Les. The latest Nam is even showing snow showers later Friday as the low sort of stops heading northeast and moves north. This could be the start of more blocking that we hope to see in the next 31 days or so.
NAM seems faster too with the progression of the storm. Once the storm hits the block, the low occludes then it picks up speed and shoots off to the East. It'll be interesting also Tim to see if this is a trend once we get closer and if so, how it impacts rainfall amounts.
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 4:23 pm
Nice to see that pattern and lets hope it shapes up like that Les. The latest Nam is even showing snow showers later Friday as the low sort of stops heading northeast and moves north. This could be the start of more blocking that we hope to see in the next 31 days or so.
NAM seems faster too with the progression of the storm. Once the storm hits the block, the low occludes then it picks up speed and shoots off to the East. It'll be interesting also Tim to see if this is a trend once we get closer and if so, how it impacts rainfall amounts.
I agree Les and we know blocking is so key around here. The pattern is changing and we just got to see where we land once it changes. Still trying to get that big storm on the 18th so I can win the contest lol.
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 4:23 pm
Nice to see that pattern and lets hope it shapes up like that Les. The latest Nam is even showing snow showers later Friday as the low sort of stops heading northeast and moves north. This could be the start of more blocking that we hope to see in the next 31 days or so.
NAM seems faster too with the progression of the storm. Once the storm hits the block, the low occludes then it picks up speed and shoots off to the East. It'll be interesting also Tim to see if this is a trend once we get closer and if so, how it impacts rainfall amounts.
I agree Les and we know blocking is so key around here. The pattern is changing and we just got to see where we land once it changes. Still trying to get that big storm on the 18th so I can win the contest lol.
We'll see Tim... something after 3/10 for sure is possible. Would love to see one of those big Gulf lows come northward up the Apps.
Wednesday late afternoon and evening is interesting as a cold front heads this way. Some models show little in the way of rain as the storms to the south take up much of the moisture while others show some rain and maybe storms locally. Best shot with this round will be to the southeast but need to watch the timing of the cold front.
#1 CPC Analog for the 8-14 day period of early March 1960. That produced a snow event at CVG over 5" from 3-2 to 3-4 with a daily snowfall record of 3.6" on March 3rd 1960. Was a cold and snowy month with a record low of -2 on the 8th to a record high of 75 on the 30th. 10.8" monthly snowfall.
Mid March 2005 is #2 analog. At CVG, 3" fell 3.10-3.12 2005 with a daily snowfall record of 1.1" on the 12th. 3 record lows of 15 were all set on the 3rd, 9th, and 10th of 2005. Very cold!
Not going to go thru all of them, there are some duds like March of 1997. Warm and wet. But we'll see. Things are looking more favorable starting around the 10th IMO.
814analog.off.gif
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Welcome to March and Met Spring tomorrow everyone! From the boys for tomorrow to kick off the month:
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The next system continues to creep northeastward into the region and
develop a bit further as it arrives to our area. Strong
southwesterly flow and warm air advection return... This,
coupled with sunshine for most of the area, will come close to
or surpass record high temperatures. Records as follows: CVG 71
in 1976, CMH 65 in 1972 and 1997, and DAY 66 in 1976.
The low continues to move east/ northeastward and its associated
cold front will move through the area Wednesday evening. Looking
a bit closer at possible setup for storms...This looks to be
another high shear low instability scenario. Weak surface based
instability does creep up into the Tri-State area Wednesday
evening and low level lapse rates appear a bit steeper, so
cannot rule out an isolated strong to severe storm moving
through. However, timing with this will be in the later evening
hours, after peak diurnal heating... overall, confidence in any
severe threat is low and, therefore, have opted to not include
in the HWO for now. Will continue to monitor.
Good morning all! The SPC has a marginal risk out for the Tri-state on south for this evening. Sometime between 6-8pm, we should see scattered storms develop almost on top of us. We are also tracking record warmth as well. Then a break Thurs with more heavy rainfall coming Thurs night and Fri. Also, the SPC has a marginal risk out for Friday for the Tri-state on south. A busy first week of Met Spring for sure.
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Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
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Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Trev has quite a few new home screens to choose from.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
We should be able to beat that as long as increasing clouds don't occur too early.
ILN has progged 70 for the Gem City tomorrow and so like you said, bro, will depend on the timetable of increasing clouds.
