February 2023 Discussion

[dce]

Currently 3 tornado warnings in Indiana. The tornado watch was definitely warranted.

Edit: Should be in the February thread.

[tron777]

Up to 0.22" for rainfall with 62 degrees currently. Dew of 59. Winds gusting to 30-35 mph.

[tron777]

MD now issued for a 60% chance of a watch being issued for us.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0206.html

[tpweather]

MD now issued for a 60% chance of a watch being issued for us.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0206.html

Interesting and a little further south than I expected. Watching the cells in south central Indiana over the next hour or two to see if there is a more northeast movement or east movement. Dayton and Columbus I thought a watch would be in place but the local area I thought we were just far enough south but again better save than sorry.

[tron777]

MD now issued for a 60% chance of a watch being issued for us.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0206.html

Interesting and a little further south than I expected. Watching the cells in south central Indiana over the next hour or two to see if there is a more northeast movement or east movement. Dayton and Columbus I thought a watch would be in place but the local area I thought we were just far enough south but again better save than sorry.

We are almost up to 500 J/KG of CAPE now even for Cincinnati and NKY. Wind shear is around 80 knots with helicity values over 400. If the storms can grow tall enough and get a sustainable updraft then an isolated tornado wouldn't be out of line. Wind of course is the bigger issue. Seeing some sun breaks here.

From the boys as of 12:56pm.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid level low moving into western Illinois this morning will
begin to open up and weaken as it moves across the southern
Great Lakes this afternoon into this evening. At the surface,
an occluding low will ride east across northern Illinois into
southern lower Michigan through this afternoon.

Ahead of the low, a 60 to 70 knot 850 mb jet will continue to
shift east across our area as we head into this afternoon. This
is leading to several waves of WAA induced pcpn that will
continue to lift east northeast across our area into early
afternoon. Once we get on the backside of the axis of pcpn
currently moving across Indiana and western Kentucky, we will
start to get more into the warm sector. With some colder air
moving in aloft, we will then begin to destabilize from west to
east through mid afternoon. There remains some uncertainty with
the degree of instability though and this will result in a
somewhat conditional severe threat for this afternoon. However,
if we do destabilize enough, low/mid level wind fields will be
supportive of some stronger/severe storms. The primary severe
window looks to be in the 1 PM to 6 PM time frame. Damaging wind
will be the primary threat, but if we are able to get some
stronger updrafts, at least a lower end tornado threat will also
exist.

Outside of storms, gradient winds will also be gusty this
afternoon into this evening and this is covered by our current
Wind Advisory.

[Bgoney]

Easily gusting to 40+ in Indian hill

[Trevor]

Full sunshine for all for a brief time. Will it be enough? We shall see. Watch should be up within the hour or so most likely for all of most of us.

[Trevor]

Easily gusting to 40+ in Indian hill

Sounds about right thanks to the sunshine allowing those gradient winds to mix down. I expect the same here shortly.

[tron777]

64 / 59 currently at CVG with a peak wind gust of 33 mph.

EDIT: Lower 70s at LOU.

[Trevor]

Storm, currently not warned, with some weak rotation entering the CWA.

Edit: strengthened on the latest scan. Might see a warning soon.

[Bgoney]

In the SHERBE ballpark now

Screenshot_20230227-132047_Chrome.jpg

[Trevor]

Really tightening up. Warning should be issued any minute I’d imagine.

[tron777]

Mostly sunny here.

[cloudy72]

Looks like it's about to go bonkers around here....

[Trevor]

…and there’s the warning.

[cloudy72]

Tornado Watch until 6pm

[tron777]

TOR Watch issued until 6pm for the Tri-state. Boone, Kenton, Campbell on north.

[cloudy72]

...

[cloudy72]

Starting to see some peeks of sunshine here - temp is 60. Clouds are racing across the sky.

[tron777]

Watch text from the SPC:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 47
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
130 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern Indiana
Extreme northern Kentucky
Western and central Ohio

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until
600 PM EST.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

SUMMARY...Low-topped supercells will move eastward this afternoon,
while posing some threat for tornadoes and damaging winds.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 55 miles west of Dayton OH to 25
miles southeast of Columbus OH. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

[Trevor]

Really not liking the radar trends to the west/southwest. Stay alert folks. These storms are blowing up quick.

[cloudy72]

Lots of Helicity across western Ohio as well so if those cells can maintain themselves they will continue to rotate into Ohio.

[tron777]

Temps are skyrocketing too! Boone Co mesonet now up to 67, with a dew of 60. 70 now in Carroll Co. 66 / 61 currently at CVG.

[tron777]

Per ILN's Facebook page, they are supposed to be launching a special weather balloon for the 18Z sounding.

[Bgoney]

Screenshot_20230227-134406_Twitter.jpg