February 2023 Discussion

[tpweather]

Finally a February like day in February. Still not a bad day though it will feel that much colder after the past two days. Not much happening this weekend though a flurry or sprinkle possible Saturday morning. The next system in here on Monday and Les mentioned that models have been producing more rain than actual rain this season. Saying that we are still above normal for the year. One more week of mild weather and then do we flip the pattern or continue the status quo. There are signs both ways as the nao goes negative and maybe strongly negative and the ao goes neutral to slightly negative. Like Les mentioned the pna and can we get this to at least go neutral or maybe positive. Getting the nao and ao negative will help in regards to keeping temps near normal instead of above average but need the pna to get out of the negative phase for better shots of winter weather. Daylight hours increasing quickly so more heating occurs every day. Can we still get snow and of course we can but having it happen at night or a really strong upper low on top of us to get anything decent.

The good thing about the pattern is the west is getting plenty of rain and snow.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Quite a drop this morning from yesterday's high of 71 at CVG, now down to 26! 26 is more like it in the morning for late February of course. Well folks... more of the same on the way. A warm up ensues this weekend and we await the rain / t-storms on Monday. SPC has Eastern KY and TN outlooked for severe wx so we are likely just to see a general rain and t-storm activity here. Going with a half inch for most with this system. It will be windy as well. What else is new? Then, we have more 50s and 60s on the way later next week. Showers return late Thurs with a heavy rain chance on Friday March 3rd. The OP GFS keeps showing snow while the GEFS Mean has the low moving right over us so rain. CMC has another cutter. The Euro has the system well to our SE. The EPS has a cutter moving thru the Great Lakes redeveloping off the East Coast to hit New England with snow. So only the OP GFS has snow for us at this time. I cannot buy that right now unfortunately. Would love for the GFS to score one for a change but with the way this winter has gone... yeah.

[tron777]

[tron777]

Folks... I will go ahead and get the March thread going. We'll use this thread for that possible little wave of snow / sleet early Sat morning and of course Monday's system which ends Feb by Tues of next week.

[tron777]

With regards to Sat morning, if we do see anything it'll be brief and won't cause any issues due to the warm ground. But the potential for a few flakes or ice pellets to fall early tomorrow morning is there. I don't have anything more to really say about it.

Then we get the warm front Sun night into Mon morning. The low occludes on Monday so the severe threat should be very diminished. Wind will be the bigger issue with this storm and a wind advisory is very likely to be issued. Still like a half inch of rain for most folks with this system.

[winterstormjoe]

This is what happens when it goes from the 70's to the 20's in 12 hours.

[tron777]

This is what happens when it goes from the 70's to the 20's in 12 hours.

If we do get cold in March or see some snow, nature (plants and animals) are going to be shocked and very confused. Some humans might be also.

[tron777]

ILN posted on their Facebook page that a new temperature record has been set at both DAY and CMH. Both sites have had a total of 3 days in February of 70 degrees or higher. Previous record for both locations was 2 set back in 2000 and 2017.

[Bgoney]

Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians
A highly progressive upper-level trough, along with an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet, will move across the southern Plains Sunday night, reaching the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday. An associated surface low will move northeastward into the southwestern Great Lakes on Monday. A corridor of low to mid 50s F surface dewpoints will be located ahead of the front, where weak instability will develop by midday. Near the front, convection is expected to form during the late morning, moving quickly eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the afternoon. This convection could organize into a fine line, potentially becoming severe.

NAM forecast soundings in the Ohio Valley around midday on Monday suggest that SBCAPE will peak between 250 and 500 J/kg. Although the instability will remain weak, a few lightning strikes will be possible with low-topped convection. In addition, forecast soundings in central and northern Kentucky show winds as high as 40 to 50 knots only 300 meters above the surface. For this reason, the stronger cells may be able to produce isolated damaging winds. The threat should persist through much of the afternoon as a narrow line moves quickly eastward into the central Appalachian foothills. An isolated wind-damage threat could also develop across parts of eastern Tennessee, but the threat should drop off quickly with southward extent due to the weak instability and a lack of large-scale ascent.

[airwolf76]

going to be a nice late February day today. cold and cloudy with off and on snow flurries/ showers. currently 20 degrees and overcast

[tron777]

Good morning folks! The light wintry mix / snow system is pulling out. No issues as expected due to the warm ground and we'll end up with a nice afternoon in the upper 40s to low 50s for most folks. Tomorrow is even better with temps in the 55 to 60 degree range. Warm front brings rain / storms (non severe) Sun night into early Monday. Then, the winds will crank gusting 40-50 mph (non t-storm winds). Then, can we destabilize for severe storms with the cold front Monday afternoon? Temps will be warm in the upper 60s. SPC now has most everyone in a slight risk for severe storms with a marginal risk for northern posters. Damaging winds are the primary threat with a low end tornado risk. We know the usual caveats at play since we've been down this road many times before this winter.

day3otlk_0830.gif

[tron777]

I checked the 12Z NAM and we're not really in the warm sector long enough to build up some CAPE for severe storms. Sounding doesn't look all that great. It'll still be windy even without t-storms though. We'll have to see if the timing changes any because right now that cold front is cooking! 12Z HRRR ends at 48 hours so it doesn't quite go out far enough yet. We can start checking it tomorrow.

[tron777]

12Z GFS is virtually the same. Speed of the front has picked up so far on guidance so we're not in the warm sector very long.

[MVWxObserver]

A lot of my relatives in Southern Mich are without still without power from last night due to the ice storm. In some areas it was really bad especially out in Hillsdale co. No idea when it'll be back on either. Some est aren't until Sunday per Consumers Power. Most of the sleet and frz rain fell south of a GRR to Lansing line. Worst of the ice seemed to be in the southern 2 tiers of counties.

Prayers and thoughts with all in those ice-crusted hard hit regions.

I have a cousin, his wife and their daughter who reside in Rochester Hills in Oakland Co. Also another cousin and her husband in southern MI, too.

[tron777]

Last I saw from Consumers Power was an est return of power now on 2/27 at 12:15pm which is better then March 2nd.

[tron777]

Per ILN's Facebook page:

Three more days to go, and here is where we stand for February snow totals:

Cincinnati: Trace (Tied for record lowest)
Dayton: 0.1" (Tied for 3rd lowest - Two years with trace)
Columbus: Trace (Record lowest)

Based on the latest forecast, we are not expecting this to change.

[airwolf76]

I was able to count the snow flurries that fell today. was expecting to see way more but its one of those years. now my forecast is showing snow starting Monday afternoon. 3-6 inches into Tuesday morning. we will see

[Bgoney]

Our February weekly wind advisory and severe weather threats for Monday


Lower Ohio Valley
A negatively tilted upper-level trough will move quickly east-northeastward across the southern Plains tonight and into the lower Ohio Valley on Monday. Early in the period, a cold front in the mid Mississippi Valley, along with a preceding tongue of maximized low-level moisture, will surge eastward. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period near the Mississippi River from far southeast Iowa southward into far eastern Missouri. This convection will move quickly eastward across the Ohio Valley early in the day, approaching the Appalachian foothills during the afternoon.

A focused 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet will quickly translate eastward across the lower Ohio Valley Monday morning. This speed max will influence winds near the surface. NAM forecast soundings between 12Z and 18Z between Lincoln, Illinois and Cincinnati, Ohio suggest SBCAPE will peak near 500 J/kg. Winds right above the surface are forecast in the 40 to 50 knot range. Convection should be able to drive these strong winds to the surface, resulting in an isolated wind-damage threat. The greatest threat should exist along the leading edge of any line segment that can remain intact during the morning, before the upper-level trough outruns the moist axis. Although there is some conditionality with this forecast, the potential for a cluster of wind reports appears substantial enough to continue a small and focused slight risk. The slight risk is concentrated where the low-level jet and greatest convective potential is forecast to become juxtaposed Monday morning.

Screenshot_20230226-081131_Chrome.jpg

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds Monday morning will switch to the
southwest Monday afternoon. Winds will become westerly Monday
evening. Sustained winds will increase to between 20 and 30 mph
with gusts up to 50 mph possible.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana,
Northeast and Northern Kentucky and Central, South Central,
Southwest and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 10 PM EST Monday.

[tron777]

Good luck to you Charles!

For today, we are going to see a big time tornado outbreak in OK while we bask in spring like warmth with temps near 60. Warm front brings in rain later on tonight into Mon morning. Then can we destabilize at all for Mon afternoon? SPC has shifted the slight risk more to the West from the Tri-state and points westward.

From the boys:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As has been discussed, a dynamic mid level system is forecast
to eject quickly northeast from the southern Plains to the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley region tonight into Monday.

For tonight, it will be partly cloudy to mostly clear early on.
Then clouds will increase from the west/southwest as WAA aloft
begins to get underway. Temperatures will drop off into this
evening, but they should stabilize and then increase some toward
Monday morning as a warm front approaches the region from the
southwest. Low level moist ascent is anticipated to increase
late as as a strong low level jet moves toward the middle Ohio
Valley. This will allow showers to develop and increase in
coverage as they pivot northeast into the region. Winds will
also increase late from the southeast, becoming locally gusty
for western areas toward morning. Lows tonight will range from
the lower 30s northeast to the mid 40s southwest.

On Monday, the dynamic, negatively tilted, mid level system
will move across the forecast area. Showers will be ongoing
early on as the warm front pivots northeast into our area. Deep
low pressure over over Iowa is forecast to move to a position
near Lake Michigan by Monday evening. An attendant cold front
from this low will race east through the region during the
afternoon. Models continue to show that a window of instability
is forecast ahead of the advancing front. This instability
should become surface based enough (amounts running between 200
and 500 J/kg) that convection developing along and just ahead of
the cold front may be able to tap into the very strong winds
aloft. Thus, SPC continues to highlight our area for a risk of
severe weather. Low topped showers, and a few thunderstorms,
will need to be watched, especially if they can maintain any
semblance of a line segments (damaging wind threat). Based on
all CAM guidance, the window for severe weather appears to be in
the noon to 6 pm window. In addition to the severe potential,
the increasing pressure gradient and very strong wind regime,
will pose a risk of higher level synoptic wind gusts outside of
convection, especially in the wake of the cold front. Wind gusts
will range between 40 and 50 mph. As a result, will issue a
Wind Advisory for the entire region, using a broad brush wind of
7 AM to 10 PM. Highs on Monday will range from the upper 50s
north to the upper 60s south.

[Bgoney]

Bit of an upgrade from the SpC for tomorrow in the wording since the front is entering ohio now mid to late afternoon



Synopsis and Discussion
A potent shortwave trough will move from MO Monday morning toward Lower MI by 00Z, as a surface low occludes from IA toward Lake MI. The occluded front will translate east from IL into IN and OH, with a warm front moving from northern KY into central OH.

The most favorable instability will be associated with the midlevel cold pocket, with up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE possible over IL and IN through 18Z. After this time, CAPE values will generally remain below 250 J/kg near the warm front with mid 50s F dewpoints common. An expansive area of strong shear will exist over the entire region, with 850 mb winds around 60 kt aiding strong SRH values.

An arcing line of storms is expected to be ongoing ahead of the vort max across central IL early Monday, and is forecast to move into IN by 18Z. This activity may produce damaging winds or brief tornadoes given sufficient low-level instability and strong shear. Storm mode may remain linear, as these storms will be tied to the midlevel cooling.

Farther east, additional cells may develop where heating occurs and into the warm advection zone from KY into OH. Isolated supercells may occur here, on the southern fringe of the midlevel vort max and near the warm front where shear will be strong. Degree of destabilization will be the main mitigating factor regarding tornado threat.

[tron777]

Update from the boys:

There remains some uncertainty for Monday afternoon/evening
with how much we will be able to destabilize out ahead of the
approaching cold front. Instability will be aided by cooler air
moving in aloft as the mid level short wave moves from northern
Indiana into northern Ohio. However the earlier shower activity
may limit the low level recovery somewhat. Hi res models are
indicating some weak surface based instability (200 to 400 j/kg)
working in from the west through the afternoon, but not really
showing much in the way of convective development. Given the
wind fields, a conditional severe threat will exist if we are
able to get some better development. The main severe threat will
remain damaging winds.

Outside of any storms, gradient winds will remain gusty Monday
afternoon into Monday evening and will continue with the current
Wind Advisory. Winds will gradually decrease overnight as the
low pressure system continues to shift off to the east.

[MVWxObserver]

A few wind reports ...

0037 114 1 NE MEMPHIS HALL TX 3473 10053 MEASURED BY THE WEST TEXAS MESONET. (LUB)

0100 78 4 ESE ERICK BECKHAM OK 3519 9980 (OUN)

0325 77 7 NW VELMA STEPHENS OK 3453 9775 (OUN)

^^ I have an aunt named Velma.

[young pup]

Wind Reports ...

0037 114 1 NE MEMPHIS HALL TX 3473 10053 MEASURED BY THE WEST TEXAS MESONET. (LUB)

That's crazy. Wonder if we will see any pictures from that area.

[Bgoney]

Screenshot_20230227-053020_Chrome.jpg

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts across the Ohio Valley today. At least a few tornadoes are also possible, especially across Ohio this afternoon.

Synopsis
A potent mid-level trough will quickly overspread the OH Valley as a 986 mb surface low traverses the Great Lakes region today. A narrow line of thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period along the cold front near the MS River and is poised to rapidly progress eastward through the day. During the first half of the period, a 50+ kt low-level jet will advect a marginally moist/buoyant airmass into the OH Valley ahead of the surface low/line of storms. Strong westerly flow atop the southerly low-level jet will promote strong vertical wind shear, that in tandem with the marginal buoyancy will promote a risk for severe thunderstorms across the OH Valley during the afternoon.

OH Valley
Widespread clouds and at least scattered thunderstorms are anticipated across the warm-sector in association with the warm-air advection regime, hampering more robust low-level instability from materializing through at least early afternoon. Nonetheless, latest guidance consensus shows a brief period of diurnal heating across the OH Valley in advance of an approaching band of low-topped storms. Ahead of the storms, temperatures may warm to 60 F amid upper 50s F surface dewpoints, contributing to short, thin MLCAPE profiles. However 850 mb southwesterly winds at 50+ kts overspread by 60-70 kts of west-southwesterly flow will contribute to relatively long and curved hodographs, suggesting that both deep-layer and low-level shear will be abundant. As the low-topped line of storms progresses eastward through the afternoon, small bowing segments and transient supercell structures may develop, with damaging gusts possible. The best chance for low-topped supercells and associated tornadoes would be across OH during the mid to late afternoon hours, where an optimal overlap of strong low-level shear/moisture may take place. Should greater than expected diurnal heating and moisture return occur, a locally higher tornado threat may materialize. Storms should weaken by early evening as they approach the Appalachians and outpace any surface-based buoyancy.

[tron777]

0.01" as of 7am at CVG. 0.04" here. Most of the rain has been well north and west of us. Rain may not hurt our chances today. Let's see how the CAPE is this afternoon.