February 2023 Discussion

[tpweather]

NAO forecast from the EPS. It goes negative from 2/28 on.


EPS NAO.jpg

So your telling me we still have a chance

[tpweather]

The good thing is next season my son and family will be in Wisconsin so if I need too head north I will. They have 2 storms this week with the first one giving them 4-6 inches before the main show later Wednesday and Thursday and expecting 10-15 more inches followed by temps below zero. The second system may end up being a blizzard but a little too early for that forecast.

[tron777]

NAO forecast from the EPS. It goes negative from 2/28 on.


EPS NAO.jpg

So your telling me we still have a chance

A very very slim one Tim. If I was a betting man which I am, I'd have to bet against it from this distance plus by factoring in the seasonal trends.

[Bgoney]

Screenshot_20230220-071802_Chrome.jpg

[cloudy72]

Anyone throw in the towel yet?

[Bgoney]

Anyone throw in the towel yet?

I've run out of towels to throw because of the last 8 winters of towels thrown

[tron777]

Good morning folks and Happy Birthday to George Washington today otherwise known as President's Day! Some of you maybe off work and school. I am so let's talk weather! Today is the best day to be outside if you're tired of the wind. Upper 50s today with some sunshine! A cool front will drop temps into the low 50s tomorrow with more sunshine with a stiff west wind. Our next system approaches Wed with heavy rain possible. 0.50 to 1" looks like a good range for the region. Higher amounts north, lighter amounts south. Not expecting any severe wx at this time. Winds will gust to 30 mph out of the SW. Temps will soar into the upper 60s after the warm front passes. On Thurs, winds will still be gusty in the 30-40 mph range as temps soar to record levels in the lower 70s! We will drop Thurs night after a dry cold front passes into the 20s to near 30. A chilly Friday in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area. Then by next weekend, more rain chances occur. There is a chance to begin as frozen precip briefly before changing to rain if the precip gets in here quick enough.

In the extended... we still look to end Feb with a rain maker about Tues of next week. Then it's on to March. We shall see, but you guys know how I feel about it already. I continue to be very skeptical of any change to wintry weather for the OV. The MJO looks to have stalled in Phase 7. It is not going towards Phase 8. We knew this was going to happen. It's been the seasonal trend plus with the very positive SOI La Nina is still the atmospheric response. The Aleutian ridge is going nowhere and the -PNA rules. The -NAO should it develop in March may help Charles's area but I don't see it helping us at all. In fact, if things don't change, flooding will become a concern as well as severe wx with these large temp. gradients that continue to occur. To answer your question Mike... I probably should too. The data clearly shows it.

[airwolf76]

Good morning folks and Happy Birthday to George Washington today otherwise known as President's Day! Some of you maybe off work and school. I am so let's talk weather! Today is the best day to be outside if you're tired of the wind. Upper 50s today with some sunshine! A cool front will drop temps into the low 50s tomorrow with more sunshine with a stiff west wind. Our next system approaches Wed with heavy rain possible. 0.50 to 1" looks like a good range for the region. Higher amounts north, lighter amounts south. Not expecting any severe wx at this time. Winds will gust to 30 mph out of the SW. Temps will soar into the upper 60s after the warm front passes. On Thurs, winds will still be gusty in the 30-40 mph range as temps soar to record levels in the lower 70s! We will drop Thurs night after a dry cold front passes into the 20s to near 30. A chilly Friday in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area. Then by next weekend, more rain chances occur. There is a chance to begin as frozen precip briefly before changing to rain if the precip gets in here quick enough.

In the extended... we still look to end Feb with a rain maker about Tues of next week. Then it's on to March. We shall see, but you guys know how I feel about it already. I continue to be very skeptical of any change to wintry weather for the OV. The MJO looks to have stalled in Phase 7. It is not going towards Phase 8. We knew this was going to happen. It's been the seasonal trend plus with the very positive SOI La Nina is still the atmospheric response. The Aleutian ridge is going nowhere and the -PNA rules. The -NAO should it develop in March may help Charles's area but I don't see it helping us at all. In fact, if things don't change, flooding will become a concern as well as severe wx with these large temp. gradients that continue to occur. To answer your question Mike... I probably should too. The data clearly shows it.

if the strong block develops it will help for sure also the A0 is expected to go negative as March goes on so that may help things a bit. I have looked at quite a few things for March and to me it looks colder overall . i do not think we see the 10 - 15 degrees above average like we saw the last 2 months. I am expecting average temps overall but it will still be an up and down month if i had to guess . hopefully as time goes on things get better for both our areas to see a descent snow event before the heat sets in lol

[tron777]

Good morning folks and Happy Birthday to George Washington today otherwise known as President's Day! Some of you maybe off work and school. I am so let's talk weather! Today is the best day to be outside if you're tired of the wind. Upper 50s today with some sunshine! A cool front will drop temps into the low 50s tomorrow with more sunshine with a stiff west wind. Our next system approaches Wed with heavy rain possible. 0.50 to 1" looks like a good range for the region. Higher amounts north, lighter amounts south. Not expecting any severe wx at this time. Winds will gust to 30 mph out of the SW. Temps will soar into the upper 60s after the warm front passes. On Thurs, winds will still be gusty in the 30-40 mph range as temps soar to record levels in the lower 70s! We will drop Thurs night after a dry cold front passes into the 20s to near 30. A chilly Friday in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area. Then by next weekend, more rain chances occur. There is a chance to begin as frozen precip briefly before changing to rain if the precip gets in here quick enough.

In the extended... we still look to end Feb with a rain maker about Tues of next week. Then it's on to March. We shall see, but you guys know how I feel about it already. I continue to be very skeptical of any change to wintry weather for the OV. The MJO looks to have stalled in Phase 7. It is not going towards Phase 8. We knew this was going to happen. It's been the seasonal trend plus with the very positive SOI La Nina is still the atmospheric response. The Aleutian ridge is going nowhere and the -PNA rules. The -NAO should it develop in March may help Charles's area but I don't see it helping us at all. In fact, if things don't change, flooding will become a concern as well as severe wx with these large temp. gradients that continue to occur. To answer your question Mike... I probably should too. The data clearly shows it.

if the strong block develops it will help for sure also the A0 is expected to go negative as March goes on so that may help things a bit. I have looked at quite a few things for March and to me it looks colder overall . i do not think we see the 10 - 15 degrees above average like we saw the last 2 months. I am expecting average temps overall but it will still be an up and down month if i had to guess . hopefully as time goes on things get better for both our areas to see a descent snow event before the heat sets in lol

I agree for your area Charles as I said earlier. The -NAO will influence your area more then it will west of the Apps. Unless that Aleutian ridge changes positions, or weakens, etc. it just isn't happening for the Ohio Valley. I currently don't see anything changing for this area. We will warm up again next week into the 50s and 60s again per the current data.

[tron777]

To further comment... 0Z EPS towards the end of its run tries to link up the -NAO ridge with the SE ridge. Torch city if that should occur. All Ensembles show the Aleutian Ridge staying strong and staying put out to 16 days.

[tron777]

[tron777]

61 here right now, 60 at CVG.

[Bgoney]

Wow, the PAC is locked in and not budging . Still think effects from the SSW , if any, good or bad, will come after mid March. Until then LaNina-ish type weather rules

[tpweather]

Minneapolis continue to be the winner this year in the mid-west as the chance of getting over 20 inches of snow this week and a blizzard to boot. Late February and March snows in that area of the country can lead to major flooding on the Mississippi plus south-central Canada has plenty of snow as well.

[tron777]

Wow, the PAC is locked in and not budging . Still think effects from the SSW , if any, good or bad, will come after mid March. Until then LaNina-ish type weather rules

After mid March, it is tough to get accumulating snow as you know unless you have an anomalously cold air mass. We have had snow in April before too, but the chances are certainly dwindling this year in my mind. Winter is pretty much over to be quite honest. I don't think I have ever posted that in February before until now. GEFS and EPS both are now showing the -NAO that develops in the first week of March linking up with the SE Ridge. It's pretty much game over as far as I'm concerned at this point. I'll buy anyone a beer who disagrees if my post turns out to be wrong. That Aleutian ridge isn't going anywhere anytime soon. The -PNA rules the roost. The -NAO has no effect on our sensible weather in the OV whatsoever. SSW or not, I don't think is even going to overcome it. I'll be mowing in March this year without a doubt.

[tron777]

Minneapolis continue to be the winner this year in the mid-west as the chance of getting over 20 inches of snow this week and a blizzard to boot. Late February and March snows in that area of the country can lead to major flooding on the Mississippi plus south-central Canada has plenty of snow as well.

No doubt Tim! MSP thru Wisc and Northern Michigan is the place to be for sure. I have an Aunt who lives about 30 mins east of Grayling, Michigan in a little town called Mio. She had better be ready for action over the next week for sure. If I didn't have to work, I would go up there to witness this event in a heart beat!

[tpweather]

Got back in town today and some of the grass is green. Looks more like early spring here than SC where everything still looks like mid-late February should look. I agree Les the -PNA is boss and hard to bring down the boss sometimes and not Springsteen which I have no good things in regards to his music. I just don't get his music. Back to the weather and the -NAO can keep us from just going straight to spring and what I will be watching with the upcoming pattern is back door cold fronts. Again this does not bring us big snows but it can put a hamper on the temps so my guess in March we will see quite a few days in the upper 30's to mid 40's for highs while folks say in southern Missouri,southwest Ky and Tn will see those same days in the 60's. Sounds good for an overriding pattern but how its setting up is bringing few in the way of storms as I believe the southern plains is getting dry and hot very quickly this spring. I do believe once the -NAO takes over we go to a south-central ridge and not the southeast ridge and I believe that is the key from us torching. If the southeast ridge wins over this battle then no doubt Les a blowtorch is possible.

El NIno we need you back!!!!

Saw your post Les and next winter my guess is I may have a few trips to see my son and is family during the winter.

[tpweather]

Got back in town today and some of the grass is green. Looks more like early spring here than SC where everything still looks like mid-late February should look. I agree Les the -PNA is boss and hard to bring down the boss sometimes and not Springsteen which I have no good things in regards to his music. I just don't get his music. Back to the weather and the -NAO can keep us from just going straight to spring and what I will be watching with the upcoming pattern is back door cold fronts. Again this does not bring us big snows but it can put a hamper on the temps so my guess in March we will see quite a few days in the upper 30's to mid 40's for highs while folks say in southern Missouri,southwest Ky and Tn will see those same days in the 60's. Sounds good for an overriding pattern but how its setting up is bringing few in the way of storms as I believe the southern plains is getting dry and hot very quickly this spring. I do believe once the -NAO takes over we go to a south-central ridge and not the southeast ridge and I believe that is the key from us torching. If the southeast ridge wins over this battle then no doubt Les a blowtorch is possible.

El NIno we need you back!!!!

Saw your post Les and next winter my guess is I may have a few trips to see my son and his family during the winter.

[tron777]

Got back in town today and some of the grass is green. Looks more like early spring here than SC where everything still looks like mid-late February should look. I agree Les the -PNA is boss and hard to bring down the boss sometimes and not Springsteen which I have no good things in regards to his music. I just don't get his music. Back to the weather and the -NAO can keep us from just going straight to spring and what I will be watching with the upcoming pattern is back door cold fronts. Again this does not bring us big snows but it can put a hamper on the temps so my guess in March we will see quite a few days in the upper 30's to mid 40's for highs while folks say in southern Missouri,southwest Ky and Tn will see those same days in the 60's. Sounds good for an overriding pattern but how its setting up is bringing few in the way of storms as I believe the southern plains is getting dry and hot very quickly this spring. I do believe once the -NAO takes over we go to a south-central ridge and not the southeast ridge and I believe that is the key from us torching. If the southeast ridge wins over this battle then no doubt Les a blowtorch is possible.

El NIno we need you back!!!!

Saw your post Les and next winter my guess is I may have a few trips to see my son and is family during the winter.

Welcome home Tim! Glad you made it back safely. I'm in agreement with Bgoney. For snow lovers there is nothing going on based on the modeled 500 MB pattern from all the Ensemble models and OP models too. That takes you thru 3/8 as of 12Z. Pretty sad I know, but the data doesn't lie. I don't see the MJO helping us. The -NAO potentially links up with the SE ridge in early March. SSW does not seem to propagate down into the troposphere. The SOI is still very positive. La Nina is still very much in control. If we get a decent snow storm in March or April, I'll eat my hat! I foresee plenty of rain makers coming our way with flooding potential possible in the usual areas as well as a nice severe wx season for once. That is how I see things. Looks like we'll have to wait yet another 9-10 months for a snow storm once again. Can't believe that Trev hasn't come out of his den with this pattern. This winter other then a few times has been right up his alley. Yet he remains very quiet overall. Definitely a head scratcher there.

[cloudy72]

I'll be mowing in March this year without a doubt.

Honestly at this point you may be mowing before February is over

[tron777]

I'll be mowing in March this year without a doubt.

Honestly at this point you may be mowing before February is over

LOL! I have never mowed in Feb before but have a few times in March. Last time was in 2012.

[Bgoney]

I think all the -NAO is going to do is lock the pattern in longer . I think it will push some cold enough air into northern OH/IN for possible wintry events but as far as AVland , we'll need more change out west for anything close to significant up to the 15th and then reassess if anything shakes out from the PV afterward

[tron777]

I think all the -NAO is going to do is lock the pattern in longer . I think it will push some cold enough air into northern OH/IN for possible wintry events but as far as AVland , we'll need more change out west for anything close to significant up to the 15th and then reassess if anything shakes out from the PV afterward

A lot of times in the summer you'll see a -NAO and what does it do? Lock in the hot pattern longer. Great post!!! A lot of people (no one on this forum) seem to forget that the Pacific pattern is way more important for those living east of the Mississippi River then the Atlantic pattern. Storm systems move generally from west to east. If the Pacific pattern is bad then chances are our pattern will also be bad for snow lovers. That's exactly what has happened for the bulk of the winter season.

[tron777]

72 is the record at CVG for Thurs from 1996. We have a good chance at beating it.

[Bgoney]

Late week temps in the SE will be challenging record highs for Feb.